(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 427: 'enemy of the people' is coming back [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-25 this war is all about maps The RNC responded to Biden’s re-election announcement with a 100% AI-generated video. The Russian victory will likely be similar as “Russian ultranationalists are continuing to advocate for the Kremlin to adopt Stalinist repression measures. Russian State Duma Parliamentarian Andrey Gurulyov – a prominent Russian ultranationalist figure within the ruling United Russia Party – stated that Russia needs to reintroduce the concept of the “enemy of the people.” This concept designated all the late Soviet leader Joseph Stalin’s opposition figures as the enemies of society. It’s why Trump likes uttering it. WASHINGTON — Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as next month, American officials say, in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict. American and NATO allies have supplied Ukraine with extensive artillery and ammunition for the upcoming battle, and officials now say they are hopeful the supplies will last — a change from two months ago when weapons were only trickling in and U.S. officials were worried that the supplies might run out. At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said. [...] While Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defenses and create a widespread collapse in Russia’s army, American officials have assessed that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favor. www.nytimes.com/... Last summer, for instance, Ukraine loudly telegraphed its plans to attack in the south, with Zelensky declaring in July that Ukraine planned to retake the city of Kherson by September. The Russians, in response, re-deployed many of their troops to the south, which led to the “hollowing out of the north and making it ripe for exploitation.” Instead, however, Ukraine conducted two simultaneous but staggered counter-offensives, attacking both in the south and in the north, in two attacks that were “mutually reinforcing,” says ISW’s George Barros. Ultimately, Ukraine “forced the Russians to pick from a buffet of bad decisions” and seized territory in both regions. “One of the key reasons why the Ukrainians were successful in the North was because they managed to successfully play game on the Russians,” says Barros. time.com/… One person has been killed and 10 wounded in a strike on a museum in Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said: “The terrorist country is doing everything to destroy us completely. Our history, our culture, our people. Killing Ukrainians with absolutely barbaric methods.” Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree establishing temporary control of the Russian assets of two foreign energy firms, signalling Moscow could take similar action against other companies if need be. The decree – outlining possible retaliation if Russian assets abroad are seized – showed Moscow had already taken action against Uniper SE’s Russian division and the assets of Finland’s Fortum Oyj. The number of daily casualties Russia is suffering has fallen by about 30% in April, UK intelligence has said. In its daily intelligence briefing, the Ministry of Defence reported that the drop was probably due to the end of Russia’s winter offensive, which, it added, had largely failed. The MoD also said Russia was now likely to be preparing its troops for Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Kyiv admitted it was behind a drone attack in the bay of Sevastopol, Ukrainian authorities confirmed. However, officials rejected Russian claims that the attack had put the operation of the grain corridor at risk. Moscow has seen “practically no results” from a pact with the United Nations that aimed to help Russia’s grain and fertiliser exports, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday. Russia has signalled that unless a list of demands is met to remove obstacles to those exports, it will not agree to extend a related deal beyond 18 May that allows the safe wartime export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Lavrov blamed western countries for creating a deadlock. Russia’s foreign ministry has said it is expelling a Moldovan diplomat in what it cast as retaliation for the expulsion last week of a Russian diplomat in Moldova. The ministry said in a statement it had summoned Moldova’s ambassador in Moscow to announce the expulsion, as well as to protest against what it called “unfriendly steps towards Russia” and “regular anti-Russian statements”. Lithuania’s parliament voted on Tuesday in favour of allowing border guards to turn back migrants who illegally enter the country. Lithuania borders fellow EU states Latvia and Poland, as well as Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. In 2021, Latvia declared a state of emergency and Lithuania began planning a razor-wire fence to stop record numbers of migrants crossing its border from Belarus. www.theguardian.com/… Key Takeaways Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. A Ukrainian military official claimed on April 25 that Ukrainian forces are achieving “impressive results” in counter-battery combat against Russian forces on the Russian-occupied eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied ISW’s April 22 assessment about limited improvements in Wagner’s relations with the Russian military command ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian ultranationalists continue to advocate for the Kremlin to adopt Stalinist repression measures. The Kremlin continues to avoid adopting overtly repressive measures likely out of concern for the stability of Putin’s regime. Russian civil rights groups OVD-Info, Memorial, and Rus Sidyashchaya (Russia Behind Bars) issued a legal challenge to the Russian censorship law against discrediting the Russian military on April 25. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kremmina line. Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline. Russian milbloggers continued to issue vehement denials that Ukrainian forces established sustained positions on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to financially incentivize Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine, offering them compensation equivalent to that of Russian volunteers. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans detonated a Russian military checkpoint near Oleshky. www.understandingwar.org/... According to an assessment collated by the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency, Russia has suffered 189,500-223,000 total casualties, including 35,500-43,000 killed in action and 154,000-180,000 wounded. Ukraine has suffered 124,500-131,000 total casualties, including 15,500-17,500 killed in action and 109,000-113,500 wounded in action, according to the document entitled "Russia/Ukraine - Assessed Combat Sustainability and Attrition." The figures are around 10 times bigger than any public casualty figures published by either Moscow or Kyiv. Neither side gives timely data on military losses. www.reuters.com/… x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 25 Daily losses in dollar terms well above 7-day average DEVELOPMENT: $717M in the last 30 days ⬇ $47M reported today ⬆ Anti-aircraft systems, artillery & tanks make up the bulk of today's reported losses 📈 https://t.co/QUwuJQCbZT pic.twitter.com/PyJLaHKnbn — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) April 25, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 25. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 24 that Russian forces advanced toward Nevske (17km northwest of Kreminna), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna) and east of Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continue to fortify positions in the Kupyansk direction and did not conduct ground attacks in the Lyman direction.[18] Geolocated footage published on April 25 indicates that Russian forces likely captured Karmazynivka (13km southwest of Svatove) on an unspecified date.[19] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 25 that Russian forces are attempting to push Ukrainians forces out of their positions in the Serebrianska forest area (11km south of Kreminna) in order to set conditions for further attacks in the Lyman direction.[20] Syrskyi also reported that Russian forces in eastern Ukraine formed “Storm” infantry units from each brigade or regiment reinforced with tanks, thermobaric artillery, and mortars and anti-tank units.[21] Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut on April 24. Geolocated footage posted on April 24 shows that Wagner Group forces made marginal advances southwest of the Bakhmut-2 rail station in western Bakhmut.[22] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces advanced in southern and western Bakhmut, where the fighting is heaviest.[23] Some milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces advanced further west from the Bakhmut-2 rail station.[24] One milblogger claimed that fighting is intensifying northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest) and Novomarkove (12km northwest).[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported continued fighting in Bakhmut, and that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut), Novomarkove, Khromove (immediately northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (5km south of Bakhmut).[26] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Wagner Group forces can no longer conduct combat operations without support from Russian Airborne (VDV) and special purposes units, which Cherevaty characterized as becoming increasingly active in the Bakhmut area.[27] Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian milbloggers continued to issue vehement denials on April 25 that Ukrainian forces established sustained positions on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. The milbloggers amplified textual reports and video claims from Russian military personnel claiming that Ukrainian forces are not on east bank Kherson Oblast and that the situation is under control.[36] One such video features personnel from the Union of Donbas Volunteers, which is affiliated with Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov.[37] One milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces seized many of the Dnipro River delta islands, however.[38] Russian milbloggers also seized the chance to amplify claimed Russian military successes, including that Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 that had supported Ukrainian raids across the Dnipro River.[39] The milbloggers also claimed that Russian air strikes, particularly with modified guided FAB-500 bombs, improved Russian forces’ ability to repel Ukrainian forces from east bank Kherson Oblast.[40] Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, believes that Russia will not launch a nuclear attack when Ukrainian defenders enter occupied Crimea. Source: Budanov in an interview with RBC-Ukraine Details: Asked whether there will be a nuclear strike if the Armed Forces of Ukraine enter Crimea, Budanov answered, "There will not be." In his opinion, Russian propaganda will present the loss of Crimea as a "forced measure", just like during the liberation of Kherson. Quote: "It is painful to admit, but it must be said: during the loss of Kherson, their [Russian – ed.] propaganda machine showed itself as effectively as possible. They presented the loss of Kherson – the greatest achievement of the so-called ‘special military operation’ – simply as an everyday matter. Moreover, they turned it around in such a way that this was even a good thing for them. www.pravda.com.ua/... Ukraine is preparing "priority measures" following the liberation of Crimea, Permanent Representative of the Ukrainian President in Crimea Tamila Tasheva said on April 25. "We have instructions from the president to develop and prepare a plan for priority measures in Crimea, which will be carried out immediately after its de-occupation. We have already received meaningful answers from the state authorities," Tasheva said. According to Tasheva, the liberation of Crimea will be followed by the return of Ukrainian public authorities, starting with a military administration before transitioning to a military-civilian administration and then to "normal" everyday life. The Crimean Peninsula has been under Russian occupation since 2014 following a fake referendum staged by Russia to annex the territory. Since then, many local residents have been imprisoned for resisting the occupation, while Russian citizens flocked to the peninsula. The Russian military has also established a military base there. There are 180 political prisoners currently being held in occupied Crimea, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Feb. 26. kyivindependent.com/… x Today russians searched the house of the Crimean Tatar human rights activist Abdureshit Dzheparrov. They detained him and took him away in an unknown direction. Realities of life for Crimean Tatars in Crimea. Share it. pic.twitter.com/RtzXUiOLrX — qırım qızı 🍇 (@qirimlia) April 25, 2023 Russia’s quest to sabotage Ukrainian forces’ internet access by targeting the Starlink satellite operations that billionaire Elon Musk has provided to Kyiv since the war’s earliest days appears to be more advanced than previously known, according to a classified U.S. intelligence report obtained by The Washington Post. Moscow has experimented for months with its Tobol electronic warfare systems in a bid to disrupt Starlink’s transmissions in Ukraine, the top-secret assessment, which has not been previously disclosed, contends. The document, among a cache of sensitive materials leaked online through the messaging platform Discord, dates to March and does not indicate whether any of Russia’s tests have been successful. But the intelligence finding is striking nonetheless as it appears to affirm what observers had only hypothesized previously: that a program ostensibly designed to protect the Kremlin’s satellites can be employed instead to attack those used by its adversaries. www.washingtonpost.com/… On Ukraine’s immediate needs for the spring, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) said there is an urgent need to create “a nearly impenetrable [air] defense system around Kyiv.” This would protect the capital, but also allow the return of thousands of Ukrainians who fled to other countries following the attack. They could help rebuild the nation’s economy, he said. He has “every anticipation there will be an offensive, led by armored units” in the coming weeks and months. “That will be a critical moment, Reed said. Citing last year’s defense authorization and appropriations bills, Reed said it showed Congress is “in it for the long term” in supporting Ukraine. He said the multi-year authority to buy munitions should signal to industry that it needs to ramp up production of needed 155 mm artillery shells and other munitions. He sharply criticized House Republican plans to tie raising the debt limit ceiling to reducing future federal spending to Fiscal Year 2022 limits. The proposal likely would spare cuts to defense programs. Cutting domestic programs in that manner “is going to cause tremendous controversy, to be polite.” He added that this approach flies in the face of past bipartisan support for defense and also addresses identified unfunded requirements. “We were able to reach a number that was satisfactory [for defense], and also did not punish domestic spending,” Reed said. The most serious consequence of a debt ceiling and spending deadlock would be a “continuing resolution.” The resolution caps spending at the previous year’s levels and limits new start programs. news.usni.org/... [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/25/2165858/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-427-enemy-of-the-people-is-coming-back Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/