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Climate Doom Loops - More to Worry About [1]

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Date: 2023-04-26  

New climate change studies suggest that scientists and governments may have underestimated the threat posed to human civilization because of risks posed by “amplifying climatic feedback loops.” According to a study published by One Earth, “an amplifying, or positive, feedback on global warming is a process whereby an initial change that causes warming brings about another change that results in even more warming.” An example is the melting of permafrost which releases methane into the atmosphere escalating global warming and the increased melting of permafrost and polar ice caps. The authors warn that “a very rapid drawdown in emissions will be required to limit future warming.” Another study, published by IPPR/Chatham House, describes these amplified climate feedback loops as “doom loops.” It is a better title for this development. Human societies are doomed unless we radically and quickly change the way we live.

Insurers and corporate evaluators are becoming increasingly aware of the threat of climate change to the national and global economy. They cannot afford to allow political denial to get in the way of sound financial decisions. Moody's researches and rates the creditworthiness of corporations and governments that want to borrow money by selling bonds or debt. They use the money they acquire by selling bonds to invest in new projects and sometimes to cover existing debts. IPPR, the Institute for Public Policy Research, is a progressive think-tank based in London that conducts and supports research in a number of fields including the impact of climate change. It partners with Chatham House, another United Kingdom based organization, that is committed to building a “sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.”

Recent reports issued by Moody’s and IPPR/Chatham House underscore how serious the risks climate change poses for human civilizationBecause long-term economic risks associated with climate change are being seriously considered for banks and policymakers, Moody’s Analytics now incorporates climate risk into its U.S. and global baseline scenarios.Moody’s examined the economic impact of long-term risk on states, territories, and metropolitan areas in the U.S. The United States has nearly 100,000 miles of shoreline along the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico andMoody’s is concerned that “large coastal states like California, Florida andNew York are especially vulnerable, while more inland northern economies will emerge only slightly worse off.”

In its analysis of economic problems caused by climate change,Moody’s identifies acute and chronic physical risk. Acute physical risk is caused by hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. Florida’s exposure to hurricanes makes it uniquely susceptible to acute physical risk. The

Carolinas and Louisiana are also near the top of the acute physical risk rankings because of hurricanes, with the stretch from Jacksonville, North Carolina to Charleston, South Carolina facing the greatest threats. Island territories Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Virgin Islands are even more prone to acute physical risk than these state. Wildfire risk is most pronounced in the western U.S., especially in California, Washington, and Utah.Inland flood risk is a greater concern in northern New England and West Virginia.

Chronic physical risk is not tied to a specific event but is caused by unprecedented climate changes over a longer period of time. Chronic risk includes drought, heat, and sea-level rise. Water stress caused by prolonged droughts is worse in the western U.S. Arizona, New Mexico and Utah all face significant risk from increasing frequent and prolonged droughts.Metropolitan Phoenix and Tucson in Arizona are especially vulnerable. Flood risk associated with rising oceans will be more impactful in Hawaii and theNortheast, especially New York City. Manhattan is an island and frequent flooding could cripple an economy tied to low-lying land and subway, rail, and car and truck tunnels.

While heat risk impacts much of the American South, its impact will probably be greatest in the middle of the country with Iowa, whose economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, being the state most vulnerable to rising temperatures. Risks from heat are also elevated in states and cities that struggle with poverty. Orlando and Cape Coral in Florida and San Francisco inCalifornia are metropolitan areas that are not especially at risk for one factor, but face significant combined exposure to acute and chronic climate risk.

According to the IPPR and Chatham House report, researchers examined forty-one potential climate feedback loops and uncovered twenty-seven that significantly increase global warming but are not fully considered incurrent climate models. The authors of the report are concerned that governments will soon be so overwhelmed by the consequences of climate change that they will be unable to channel funds and generate reforms to address its root causes.In the U.S. west, states exhaust their wildfire fighting budgets while climate change accelerates. A band-aid approach permits the underlying problems to continue and ends up contributing to the “doom loop.”

Meanwhile, continued investment in fossil fuels creates vested interests who oppose policies to move away from a carbon-based economy change and make the doom loop and a climate catastrophe more likely. It calls for improving analysis and communication about the threat of doom loops; immediate implementation of an environmental narrative that recognizes the deepening climate crisis; and shifting away from an incrementalist approach towards one that recognizes the need for a system-wide transformation.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/26/2166069/-Climate-Doom-Loops-More-to-Worry-About

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