(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS: The Clock Is Ticking Towards Default Day [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-04-26 Does the man on the left know what he is doing? I sure hope so, because the man on the right sure doesn't! No, this isn’t a return of my weekly posts on what the Congress Critters are up to (I’m sure some of you are applauding 👏, but maybe a few of you are having a sad 😞 😢). It’s more like an update of my Previous Post on the debt ceiling crisis where I covered what I see as the options that are on the table (Default, Cave, Discharge Petition or DARK BRANDON To The Rescue). Please feel free to go back and read or reread that post before you delve into this Update. First, am I the only one who is in a shear PANIC over this? Depending on how much revenue comes in from the 2022 tax filings and how much “creative accounting” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen can do, we are either a few months or a few weeks away from Default Day. Yet the TV media barely mentions the story and the Newspapers are still burying it in the back pages. Thank God for our own Joan McCarter who keeps us all well informed here at DK. She is truly the G.O.A.T. (Greatest Of All Time) when it comes to reporting on Congress, and as you will see, I reference and quote her frequently. But even the Stock Market doesn’t seem that all concerned about the debt ceiling crisis (yet). Don’t they realize the economic catastrophe that will occur on Default Day? I think the graphic below sums it up. This is probably the short list of the tragedies that would occur on Default Day or soon thereafter. Perhaps the biggest worst things that will happen are a rapid recession and the world-wide economic ramifications. In a nutshell, while economists have trouble predicting exactly what would happen if we default (because its never happened in modern history), all say it will be Bad, REAL BAD! l usually don’t like to quote Wall Street types, but I think this guy sums up the seriousness of the situation quite well: Last week, BlackRock Vice Chair Philipp Hildebrand warned that default would undermine “a basic anchor” of the world’s financial system and “must not happen.” “All we can do is to pray that everyone in the United States understands how important the sanctity of the sovereign signature of the leading currency, of the leading bond market, of the leading economy in the world is,” Hildebrand said. So why is this not the Top Story everyday? Perhaps because we have been on the brink of default numerous times in the past and past Presidents and Congresses have always managed to avoid going over the default cliff. So they see this time as no different, YAWN. But what has got me panicked is it is different, very different. Now we have crazy GOP House members who are either sure Democrats will cave to whatever they want to avoid default or are perfectly fine with blowing up the nation’s economy or really believe that default is no big thing. They and others in the GOP controlled House were even considering a crazy and impossible plan for a “partial” default whereby they allow us to pay our creditors (including China) while not paying other debts like Social Security (they reconsidered after they realized how bad it would look for them politically if China got its money while retirees didn’t). Top all that off with Barely House Speaker McCarthy, who isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed and is being controlled by the Crazy Caucus. His main if not only concern is how to avoid a vote on a Motion To Vacate so he can keep the gavel in his hands. The fact that this time we have GOP crazies who are willing to blow things up and an ignorant Speaker who puts his own self interest above everything else, is what’s got me in a PANIC! So let’s get on with the update and where things stand. Last week McCarthy announced in a floor speech last Wednesday afternoon that the long-promised House Republican debt ceiling/budget cuts bill was ready and predicted a vote before the end of this week. As pointed out by Joan McCarter in her Monday Post holding a vote this week is a tall order. He needs to unite the GOP moderates and the crazy Freedom Caucus to get to the 218 votes needed. While moderates understand that this Bill doesn’t have a chance in hell to be passed by the Senate and signed by Biden, they might support it as a way of opening negotiations on a compromise. However, even if this bill satisfies the wishes of enough of the crazy Freedom Caucus, they will insist on it being the bottom line and will not support any compromise version. With that understood, there are 3 ways this could play out. 1. McCarthy postpones the vote, which will clearly mean he does not have the 218 GOP votes he needs to pass this POS and is in deep trouble. 2. He is not sure he has all 218 votes, but rolls the dice and holds the vote anyway hoping he can twist arms on the floor during the vote, something only a fool would try. However, this is Barely (15 ballots later) Speaker McCarthy we are talking about so who knows. 3. He has 218 confirmed GOP votes and brings the Bill to the floor where it passes. It appears that #1, #2 or #3 are all still possible. McCarthy can only afford to lose 4 GOP votes. Per This April 24 Joan McCarter Post there are 2 Freedom Caucus members who are likely or leaning towards voting no. …some of the maniacs are still holding out on McCarthy. Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona says he’s “leaning no” on the bill because it would raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion. Florida’s Rep. Matt Gaetz doesn’t think it punishes low-income working Americans enough. Then according to Monday’s Post by Joan, a 3rd GOP House member is threatening to vote no over a matter that has nothing to do with the debt ceiling bill: The same week Barely Speaker Kevin McCarthy is trying to unify his fractious caucus on his debt ceiling and spending cuts bill, Republicans on the Homeland Security Committee introduced an immigration bill that competes with a hard-line Judiciary Committee bill that advanced last week. One Republican (Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas) at the center of the debate is so opposed to that Judiciary Committee bill that he’s threatening to withhold his vote on McCarthy’s debt ceiling funding cuts effort. The latest is that the Bill has cleared the Rules Committee (with some unspecified changes, so McCarthy could hold a floor vote this week. But according today’s post by Joan McCarter it’s still unknown whether he has the 218 GOP votes he needs for this bill to pass. Besides the fact that he has a number of no or uncommitted House Republicans as Joan points out, he has one member out all week and another out on Thursday, again with only a 4 vote cushion, which is really only a 3 vote cushion this week with the absence of 1 GOP member. If he doesn’t have the votes he will likely postpone the vote (Option #1). Or he could roll the dice and put the bill up for a vote and see if he can twist arms on the floor (Option #2), a highly embarrassing move if he fails, and something Pelosi would was never foolish enough to try. We may know what will happen as early as the end of the day. The Bill is currently being debated on the House floor (C-Span link). However, while a vote is possible before the end of the day, one has not yet been scheduled. Stay Tuned! [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/26/2165579/-THIS-WEEK-IN-CONGRESS-The-Clock-Is-Ticking-Towards-Default-Day Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/