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China's Ukraine plan mixes no-peace and self-interest [1]

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Date: 2023-04-29  

Xi welcome 70 new diplomats to China April 24,02023 - (Yin Bogu/Xinhua via AP)

By JOE McDONALD. April 28, 2023

Xi’s plan to send an envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of its support for Moscow and pursue a bigger role as a diplomatic force. His announcement Wednesday in a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prompted optimism Beijing might use its warm relations with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to push for peace. China has good reasons to want to see the war ended. It jolted the Chinese economy by pushing up oil, wheat and other commodity prices. Beijing also warned Wednesday about the dangers of nuclear war, after Russia announced earlier it would move atomic weapons into neighboring Belarus. John Delury, an international relations specialist at Yonsei University in Seoul.“Beijing has no interest in seeing Russia humiliated, nor is it in China’s interest for Russia to be triumphant,” Delury said. “The best option is a cease-fire and, with it, economic opportunities to participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.” “Trying to drive a wedge between the U.S. and European partners is an important goal,” said Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “For that, China needs to pretend that it’s an active force for peace.”

There are many potential benefits to China from lasting pace and stability in Ukraine, and Russia, but don’t expect Xi to be out front unless Ukraine manages to expel Russia beyond its 1991 borders with its upcoming offensive. Prior to Russia’s illegal invasion, China was Ukraine’s largest trading partner. Since the invasion, China has from 147 billion in 2021 to forecasted to exceed 215 billion in 2023. China and Russia expect their trade relationship to exceed their previous trade relationships with the US, while each is expecting to lose large portions of their per war trade with the US postwar. For China, imports from Russia are heavily weighted with energy imports that are critical to its economic well-being, so reliability is paramount.

In addition to Russia, China is developing a strong bilateral trade relationship with the five post Soviet, Central Asia countries. That relationship is also dependent on long term stability. In both the Russian and the Central Asian trade relationships, China is the dominate partner. The future of China’s trade relations with Ukraine may depend heavily on the degree of China’s support for President Zelensky’s 10 point peace plan. Since Russia is waning and Ukraine is ascending in the European sphere, I expect Xi to treat Ukraine fairly in the negotiations for postwar settlements. However, stability in Central Asia is important to Ukraine’s long term security and economic interest as well.

Reducing or eliminating the US dollar's dominate position in the sphere of world trade is a high priority goal of China and Russia, primarily because of the influence it provides the US over the rules of trade and the US’ ability to unilaterally imposed crippling sanctions on any nation it deems worthy of isolation. Having the Yuan as the dominate medium of trade in the Russian and Central Asian countries gives the Yuan to springboard to other countries that the seven of them also trade with. Local currency options are written into nearly all of the many trade agreements Xi has concluded in the past four months.

The war in Ukraine has also interrupted the COVID recovery worldwide, which is an additional hindrance to China’s own ability to grow its trade volumes with many of its other trade partners, particularly the EU. In all instances, we are referring to China’s exports primarily.

For Ukraine, Xi’s assignment of a high level envoy to gather recommendations from unnamed countries on how to proceed with the Ukraine peace process may be a stalling tactic on Xi’s part it is a great opportunity for Ukraine to lobby potential participants in its favor. Particularly the former Soviet countries of Central Asia. It also gives Ukraine a distinct advantage if the surveys are ongoing or come shortly after a successful spring offensive by Ukraine’s forces.

All an all, regardless of Xi’s intentions, opening a direct dialogue with President Zelensky is definitely favorable to the potential outcome for Ukraine. As each of China’s wants fall into place, Russia fades further into the background and Ukraine future brightens in both the East and the West.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/29/2166471/-China-s-Ukraine-plan-mixes-no-peace-and-self-interest

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