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Ukraine Update: Smoke on the water, fire in the sky [1]

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Date: 2023-04-29  

According to Russian sources, the fire was triggered by a wave of Chinese-made Mugin-5 drones, which cost $9,500 each and are capable of flying over 800 km. Those sources say that Ukraine launched three groups of these drones from an area near Odesa, with some being brought down by electronic warfare and one being shot down by air defense systems near a village deep inside Russia. However, there is no way to confirm the accuracy of any of the Russian reports and this information is definitely suspect (especially since the location of the drone reported shot down looks to be beyond even the longest cruising range of the Mugin-5).

If this was a Ukrainian drone attack, it followed closely on the heels of a Russian strike on an apartment building in the southwest Ukrainian city of Uman which resulted in at least 26 deaths, including the deaths of four children.

One thing is sure, fuel storage facilities burn … enthusiastically.

x An early morning Ukrainian drone attack has left an oil tank farm burning in the Russian-held port of Sevastopol. pic.twitter.com/mHT3jloSlw — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 29, 2023

In 2019, Iran successfully attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia using drones, triggering long lasting fires and significant damage. Oil products have not gotten less flammable since then.

Fuel depots are a legitimate target of war. An attack on a fuel depot on Belgorod by a pair of Ukrainian helicopters in April 2022 was one of the first significant attacks that Ukraine made across the Russian border. Systematically attacking such facilities helped complicate Russian logistics in advance of both the Kharkiv counteroffensive and the liberation of Kherson.

Over the fall, Ukraine conducted a program of hitting fuel depots in Russian occupied areas of Ukraine and in nearby areas of Russia. In November, Ukraine reportedly used drones to hit a fuel depot in the Orel oblast of Russia that was over 200 km from the Ukrainian border.

On social media this morning there are frequently expressed concerns about the environmental damage caused by the reported Ukrainian attack. While the towering column of black smoke does look apocalyptic, that's what happens when 300,000 barrels of petroleum products gets burned. This oil was always going to be burned. Russia’s plan was just to burn it a little at a time, powering their warships around the Black Sea. Ukraine changed that plan.

Google maps recently updated the satellite images in Crimea, so enjoy this high resolution image of the affected tank farm.

For now, just enjoy the scene, which is available from dozens of different vantage points around the city. Perhaps pull out a Deep Purple album while you watch. Seems appropriate.

x The dungeon master rolls a 22:

And a dark cloud settles over Crimea. https://t.co/NFcFc0QerL pic.twitter.com/LcKVIupabJ — Def Mon (@DefMon3) April 29, 2023

The Ukrainian military sent out an additional warning to residents of Russian-occupied Crimea this morning, warning them to stay clear of potential military targets. Seems like good advice.

Russia expands its genocide plans

At this point, it’s not difficult to find Russian officials and pundits declaring that Ukraine is not a real country, Ukrainian culture is not real, and that all Ukrainians need to die. But in case anyone thought Russia’s plans for genocide ended at the Ukrainian border, here’s Vladimir Putin’s right hand man extending the calls for extermination to Poland.

x Medvedev: I see no point in maintaining diplomatic relations with Poland. This state must not exist for us while there is no one but Russophobes in power and Ukraine is full of Polish mercenaries, who should be ruthlessly exterminated like stinky rats.



Lavrov's diplomacy school?… https://t.co/Rl2l4ioaZ7 pic.twitter.com/GRcy9sXUgb — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2023

Speaking of Poland, there are reports this morning that Poland has found remains of a missile that hit their territory in December and which is thought to be a stray Russian cruise missile of the same type used in Uman. That missile likely took a wrong turn over Belarus and landed deep inside Poland. Polish fighter jets reportedly tracked the incoming missile at the time, but evidence couldn’t be found until this week.

This is unlikely to affect Poland’s, and NATO’s, involvement in the invasion … but that’s not a sure thing.

Russian assaults leveled off in April

Almost every morning, the Ukrainian general staff issues a situation update, either as text or video, in which some statistics are given about the intensity of Russian attacks over the previous 24 hours. Those statistics generally (though not always) include the number of missiles and drones launched at Ukrainian cities, the number of locations shelled by Russian forces, and the number of Russian assaults against Ukrainian military positions.

For the last couple of months, I’ve been tracking that last number in hopes of finding some way to take the “temperature” of the war. As the month of April ends, this is likely the last time I’ll update this chart—at least for awhile.

Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions by day, March and April

The high levels seen in early March reflect the levels that were also seen in February and represent typical values through most of the winter as Russia was seeking to conduct an offensive in the areas around Kupyansk, Kremmina, Donetsk, and Vuhledar in addition to the continuing fight at Bakhmut. The decline in attacks during the second half of March can be thought of as marking the end of Russia’s general offensive as well as a shifting of troops to concentrate on Bakhmut (and to a lesser extent Avdiivka). On an average day in April, sixteen of the listed Russian assaults took place at Bakhmut alone.

At this point, it’s unclear that this number is measuring anything except that Russia is no longer attempting a wide scale advance, but continues to conduct a level of small, probabing “reconnaissance-in-force” attacks to feel out Ukrainian positions outside of Bakhmut.

Over the next week, my intention is to move to another section of the data provided each day: the details of locations assaulted by Russia and shelled by Russia each day. Using that data, I’m going to walk the front line again, in hopes of getting a clearer view of the situation in advance of the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Unless, of course, Ukraine moves first. Monday is the first day of May.

x Bakhmut, Ukrainian warriors still fighting for this city and they will fight for every inch of Ukraine 🇺🇦 God bless them all.

pic.twitter.com/ogcjT7XDzm — UKRAINIAN SQUAD🇺🇦 (@ukrainiansquad) April 28, 2023

How about one last view from Sevastopol?

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/29/2166549/-Ukraine-Update-Smoke-on-the-water-fire-in-the-sky

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