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Why Biden's Low Poll Numbers Don't Matter. Why He'll Win in 2024 Anyway. [1]

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Date: 2023-05-26  

In today’s NORTHERN VIRGINIA DAILY, there appeared the piece I posted here earlier this week, as XXX.

(This is an overwhelmingly Republican rural Virginia district, and my messages are often intended to challenge my Trump-supporting neighbors.)

It elicited a comment from the Republican gentleman with whom I have regular public exchanges, and about whom I’ve written here previously. He wrote to question my saying that the Democrats have the “wind at their back” for these upcoming Elections (because of the disastrous course the Republicans have put themselves on).

His point was: Biden doesn’t look like a winner. Just look at his low poll numbers.

That elicited from me this response:

Yes, you're right, [NAME], that Biden's standing in the polls is weak. And I don't imagine that will change a whole lot between now and the 2024 Election. But I think the extraordinary nature of this historic political moment will make that almost irrelevant. Biden was similarly uncharismatic, and the hatred toward him of the chunk of the electorate called the Republican Base, were already true before the 2020 Election, and Biden nonetheless beat Trump. Why? Because on the one hand the great majority of Americans could see that Biden was basically a decent person with some competence that could enable America to take a somewhat normal course. And because, on the other hand, they saw that Trump represented a degree of craziness and destructiveness that threatened fundamental things about how the nation would function in the present and what kind of country this will be in the future. That will seem even truer in 2024, after the more that Americans have seen about Trump (with all the crimes that are being exposed), and about the Republican Party, with the crazy and whole broken way they are using the two branches of government that they control: the House and the Supreme Court. While there is maybe a third of Americans who want the crazy and destructive, there is a substantial majority that want normal. And so that majority will vote for Biden because the alternative is Trump, and enough people now recognize that putting the powers of the Presidency in the hands of Donald Trump is like pulling the pin on a hand grenade and clutching it to your chest.

That exchange led a Democratic leader in this area to come on with a comment in praise of Biden, in which he declared, “The Biden Administration has accomplished more good for America in two years than any previous Administration in the history of this great nation.”

Which led me to say this about how it comes to pass that both those things are true: i.e. that Joe Biden has functioned as President very impressively, in a great many ways, and that Biden’s poll numbers are low.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/26/2171524/-Why-Biden-s-Low-Poll-Numbers-Don-t-Matter-Why-He-ll-Win-in-2024-Anyway

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