(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 460: ongoing process of de-occupation continues [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags'] Date: 2023-05-28 Preliminary operations have already begun to pave the way for a counteroffensive against Russian occupying forces, a Ukrainian presidential adviser has said. “It’s a complicated process, which is not a matter of one day or a certain date or a certain hour,” Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with the Guardian. “It’s an ongoing process of de-occupation, and certain processes are already happening, like destroying supply lines or blowing up depots behind the lines. Russian troops shelled nine oblasts of Ukraine over the last 24 hours. Ukrainian regional military administrations have said the Russian Army targeted nine regions of Ukraine, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts over the last 24 hours, UkrInform reported. On the evening of 26 May, Russian forces shelled Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from artillery systems. According to the reports, two civilians were killed and 32 injured in a missile attack on Dnipro city launched by invaders yesterday. Ukraine is ready to launch a counteroffensive against Russian troops, Security Council Secretary says – BBC. In his interview with BBC, Oleksii Danilov, the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council secretary, dismissed suggestions that the counteroffensive had already begun. However, the assault to retake occupied territories could begin “tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or in a week,” he added. Danilov stressed that the Ukrainian Army would start the counteroffensive when commanders calculated “we can have the best result at that point of the war.” euromaidanpress.com/... Key Takeaways Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief in place operation in Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline and last until June 5. The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority and regime. Prigozhin may be attacking Putin for failing to give Prigozhin some promised reward for seizing Bakhmut. The Wagner Group held a reportedly illegal pro-Wagner rally in Yekaterinburg on May 28 despite the reported banning of the rally by Yekaterinburg authorities. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov criticized former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin on May 27. Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front. Russian forces continued to fire on areas in Southern Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) asserted that Russia is now demanding that Russian citizens make additional sacrifices to support the war effort. Russian occupation officials continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camps. www.understandingwar.org/... x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 28 Minor additions by @Rebel44CZ 🇨🇿 VISUALLY CONFIRMED: 3.0x losses to date ➡ 2.3x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡ 1.7x 30-day average ⬇ 📈 https://t.co/ftZHv5o4Xp pic.twitter.com/6odiak8NIU — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) May 28, 2023 The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 28 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), west of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut), and in the direction of Ivanivske (6k west of Bakhmut).[12] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported on May 28 that only one combat clash occurred near Bakhmut City in the past 24 hours.[13] Geolocated footage published on May 28 indicates that Russian forces made marginal gains west of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[14] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are counterattacking west of Klishchiivka but that Ukrainian forces maintain their current positions in the area.[15] A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka on May 27, where Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces advanced up to one kilometer on May 26.[16] Ukrainian personnel in the Bakhmut area reportedly expressed optimism that the decreased tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut may facilitate further limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks.[17] ISW previously assessed that the decreased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and the ongoing relief in place operation are likely providing Ukrainian forces in the area the initiative to launch a new round of operations around the city if they so choose.[18] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and did not conduct operations in the Kreminna area.[37] Russian Western Group of Forces (Western Military District) Spokesperson Sergei Zybinsky claimed that assault units of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) destroyed Ukrainian positions near Masyutivka.[38] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced from Masyutivka and expanded their zone of control in the area, although ISW has still not seen visual confirmation of these advances nor confirmation that Russian forces control Masyutivka.[39] A Ukrainian serviceman serving near Kreminna reported that Russian forces regularly conduct unsuccessful ground attacks and fire prohibited gas cylinders on Ukrainian positions near Kreminna.[40] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces advanced southeast of Bilohorivka (10km south of Kremmina), while a milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful operations near the settlement.[41] ISW has not seen visual confirmation supporting a Russian advance near Bilohorivka. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Click here to read ISW’s new retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut. Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front on May 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka).[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces regained lost positions south of Pervomaiske but sustained losses while doing so.[43] The milblogger claimed that positional battles occurred near Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka).[44] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia published footage on May 28 purporting to show elements of the DNR 87th Regiment repelling a Ukrainian counterattack on the outskirts of Avdiivka on an unspecified date.[45] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces attacked in the direction of Novokalynove (13km north of Avdiivka) and Krasnohorivka (8km north of Avdiivka) and repelled a Ukrainian counterattack near the H-20 (Donetsk City to Kostyantynivka) highway on May 27.[46] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a failed raid across the Dnipro River on May 28. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces detected and fired on Ukrainian forces as they prepared to cross the Dnipro River near the Antonivsky Bridge.[48] This report is consistent with reports of periodic Ukrainian raids across the Dnipro River.[49] Russian forces continued to fire on areas in southern Ukraine on May 28. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two Shahed drones over Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and struck Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, with glide bombs.[50] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted airstrikes against Chervone, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Zmiivka, Kherson Oblast.[51] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian artillery units conducted 70 fire missions targeting Kherson City and its environs.[52] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x Why Cuban migrants are fighting for Russia in Ukraine, as Belarus trains Cuban soldiers https://t.co/StgDuqLItm via @Yahoo — SerAl (@AlxSer) May 28, 2023 the US agreeing to late model AMRAAM export approval will be effective in the core air-to-air task. What are the factors that may influence the choice of Western fighter aircraft for Ukraine? Which option – Gripen, F-16 or F/A-18 would suit the best and to what extent operational environment specific over Ukraine would influence that decision? Defence24.pl speaks with Prof. Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow, Airpower & Technology, RUSI. Jakub Palowski: Let me start with a general question. What is the way the Ukrainian Air Force should be supported now, what are the primary missions, also considering potential deliveries of Western-designed tactical aircraft? Prof. Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow, Airpower & Technology, RUSI: The primary driver of support for the Ukrainian Air Force should be the air to air mission. Fundamentally, Ukraine - even with a small number with Westen jets - will not be able to change the balance of forces on the ground. However, if the Russian Aerospace Forces can gain air superiority over the battlefield, that could shift the balance against the Ukrainian Army. So the requirement, in short to medium term, before the ceasefire is achieved, is primarily preventing the Russian Aerospace Forces from gaining the aerial superiority over the battlefield. That will significantly affect the way the West would try to support the Ukrainian Air Force transition to NATO fighter aircraft. For example, some have suggested the A-10 Warthog or an adaptation of a trainer aircraft like Hawk. Those are unsuitable, because they do not offer any significant air to air capability, even though they could offer air to ground capability in a non-contested environment. The other thing to bear in mind is that the Russian Ground Based Air Defence (GBAD) laydown is extremely lethal and very extensive. And while Ukraine to some degree had success in creating short-term windows of access to operate at low level using the AGM-88 HARM (High Speed Anti-Radiation Missile), the actual hard-kill rates of those sort weapons is very low. So the actual degradation of the Russian air defence capabilities is also low, especially to long-range S-400 and S-300V. This means that any Western aircraft supplied will have not only to deal with Russian fighter aircraft threat, but also with a long-range, layered and very capable ground-based SAM threat. Last but not least, the chosen fighter needs to be able to operate from a network of dispersed airbases, because Russia can hit any runway in Ukraine with cruise and ballistic missile. Even with air defences in place, advanced ballistic missiles can get through. defence24.com/... [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/28/2171967/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-460-ongoing-process-of-de-occupation-continues Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/