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Ukraine: Speculation on the southern front [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-15  

With at least 3 of the western equipped brigades identified near Velyka Novosilka on the southern front we know this area is of interest to Ukraine. That isn’t to say that they can’t respond elsewhere as they still have @6 more western equipped brigades and 8 more “Offensive Guard” brigades yet to be committed. But Velyka Novosilka is getting enough attention to be worthy of some speculation as to what Ukraine may attempt here.

On the map above, red lines drawn in roughly represent the Russian fortifications. The white lines represent Deep State’s railroad locations, these are incomplete as there is a rail line going north from Polohy into Ukrainian controlled territory. This makes Polohy more important in my estimation than Tokmak. Below is the google map of Russian fortifications for reference. Notice the difference in density in areas.

Ukraine is attacking through the least dense area of fortifications. Once they get past that line near where they started, they can fan out behind the line collapsing Russian forces as they go. One thrust can continue down to Mariupol where there is a southern coastal highway which should be cut. Then there are advantages to going both east and west.

Taking a right turn and heading west towards Polohy would allow Ukraine to establish rail service for their own supply into this area. Plus they can approach Melitopol from the east bypassing most of those fortification lines. They will continue to put pressure on those lines to force the Russians to keep troops there (known as a blocking or fixing action). But then as Ukraine comes in from the south east many of those lines will collapse as many are not designed to be approached from the SE.

Similarly if Ukraine turns left and heads east they can start to clear out the lines near Donetsk. Again, doing so from the Russian rear area means these lines will be more easily taken with the Russians trapped between two forces. If Ukraine can get south of Donetsk they can start to threaten the supply lines into Donetsk city and possibly force the surrender of the city.

As the Ukrainians push south from Velyka Novosilka the salient should work in their favor extending the length of the lines Russia needs to defend. This will force Russians to thin themselves out somewhere else or let Ukraine run loose in this area. With multiple brigades ready to go Ukraine has the ability to extend the length of these lines in a way Russia currently doesn’t. It also forces Russia to move troops, something they don’t do well, particularly moving them straight into combat. Russia prefers set positions which are easier to organize. The more Ukraine can force Russia to move, the better off they are.

Slava Ukraini!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/15/2175533/-Ukraine-Speculation-on-the-southern-front

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