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Minnesota State House: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-06-16  

I thought it would be useful to summarize the various legislative chambers I have analyzed for 2024, structured in a similar manner as those of previous cycles, where I include a chart of all the competitive seats, provide updates (such as rating changes) and give my overall assessment of the chamber.

Given that the 2024 election is over a year away and that I analyzed these chambers just a few months ago, these initial summary posts will generally be fairly short, as there won’t be very many updates.

Today’s article will be on the Minnesota House of Representatives (2024), which I previously looked at back in March and April of this year. Included at the top of the post is a chart with my ratings of all the competitive seats. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”).

There are two rating changes in the chamber, both favoring Democrats, with HD 36B and HD 47B being moved from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. While Joe Biden easily won these seats by about 17 to 18 points, I originally classified these districts as Lean Democrat due to the fairly close 2022 state house results, where Dems won these districts by about just 6 to 7 points. However, upon further reflection, it seems that these results are somewhat anomalous and were likely a result of the seats being open, which presumably won’t be the case for 2024. With Dems Brion Curran (HD 36B) and Ethan Cha (HD 47B) having the advantage of incumbency this cycle (assuming they run again), they should be more heavily favored.

My overall rating for the chamber is Lean Democrat. Currently, the balance of the chamber is 70D – 64R, so the Democrats can afford a net loss of at most two seats to hold onto the chamber, while the GOP needs a net gain of four or more seats to flip the chamber. (A net gain of exactly three seats would result in a tied chamber.) There are currently twelve toss-ups total, five Dem-held and seven GOP-held, and the Dems need to win a minimum of three of these seats in order to maintain control (assuming both parties hold onto all their other seats in the chamber), which seems reasonable. Dems are technically more exposed than Republicans (with sixteen districts classified as “Lean” or “Likely” Dem and just eleven districts classified as “Lean” or “Likely” Republican), though I should note that I was overly cautious with a lot of the Dem districts (and they may end up being safer than my ratings would suggest).

Thanks to cnanalysis.com (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/16/2175752/-Minnesota-State-House-2024-Ratings

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