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Pennsylvania State Senate: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-06-21  

Next in my state legislative summary posts (for 2024 ratings) is the Pennsylvania State Senate, which I previously looked at in March of this year. A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”). As was stated in my earlier PA post, the chamber has staggered terms, with only half the chamber on the ballot every two years, meaning that this will be the first election held under the new boundaries for these particular seats.

There are no rating changes or other updates, so this post will be short (with just one paragraph below for my overall rating of the chamber).

My overall rating for the chamber is Lean Republican. The current balance in the chamber 28R – 22D, so the Democrats need a net gain of at least three seats for a majority, as a tied chamber would give them control, with Lieutenant Governor Dem Austin Davis serving as tiebreaker. Currently, the Democrats are already heavily favored to flip one seat (SD 15), so if they also flip the GOP-held toss-up (SD 37), they would be just one seat short of a majority (assuming they hold onto all their current seats, which they are favored to do), giving the Republicans the edge to hold the chamber. Democrats need to flip at least one Republican-leaning seat for control, with SD 49 being the next best pick-up opportunity, and SDs 13 and 31 being more reaches. Also, as mentioned in the initial district post, if the current incumbent Republican in SD 49 retires, that seat would almost definitely become a toss-up or better for Dems, and the entire chamber would likely become a Toss Up as well.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/21/2176670/-Pennsylvania-State-Senate-2024-Ratings

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