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The Fall of the Russian Empire ...what happens next? [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-24  

“You can make a throne of bayonets, but you can't sit on it for long.” (Boris Yeltsin 1991)

Ruling by fear and intimidation can work for a long while, but eventually the tyrant weakens and can no longer hold onto power. Chaos usually follows. What is unfolding in Russia right now is one of those very surprising events, that is “obvious” in hindsight. The difficult part is forecasting what comes next. Here are two possible outcomes:

Scenario 1

Sick of being slaughtered in Ukraine for the vainglorious ambition of Putin, significant battalions of the Russian army joins Wagner’s march on Moscow.

Prigozhin captures Moscow with minimal resistance.

Prigozhin offers to withdraw to the pre-2014 boarders, with the exception of Crimea being recognized by the international community as permanently part of Russia.

Western Powers, tired of the cost of suppling armament to Ukraine, “encourages” Zelenskyy to accept.

Russia survives as a weak, failed state, under the leadership of Prigozhin (someone more viscous and corrupt than Putin)

Scenario 2

Rosgvardiya (The National Guard ...Putin’s Praetorian Guard) destroys the Wagner Group

Russian army purge follows ...further weakening the Russian military

Ukraine is able to capture the major logistical hubs in occupied Ukraine before the fall mud season.

Starved of supplies, the Russian army slowly collapses over a period of time, perhaps as long as 2 years.

Russia breaks apart into a Yugoslavia like condition of multiple failed states

There are 1,000+ different variations of these two scenarios, and probably another 1,000+ different scenarios that can be conjectured. In none of them do I see Russia prevailing.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/24/2177334/-The-Fall-of-Empires-what-happens-next

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