(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . More Russian stuff blowing up, plus will Russia spiral down into 'razborki' [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-06-25 So what does the future hold for Russia? Is it back to the status quo ante coup? Or is there a new power dynamic emerging? Anton Gerashchenko makes some interesting points in his Twitter feed. x Some possible outcomes of yesterday's events: 1. In Wagner PMC, a split has reportedly started between those who felt used and those who remained loyal to Prigozhin after the failed rebellion. 2. Combat pilots reportedly quit Wagner PMC due to their disagreement with the way… — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 25, 2023 3. A vertical of power has collapsed. No one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life. Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday. It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything. When you aren’t sure who to be loyal to, whether the person you are loyal to will throw you under the bus, whether you will be purged because you chose poorly who to support, it’s time to either develop your own power base or check out villas for sale in Italy. 4. Russia might be facing a bloody war, not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin's supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders. All large business and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven't already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself. Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force. It will be the new 90s but far worse - Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie. The destruction of the army in Ukraine and its demonstrated impotence this weekend in Russia creates a security vacuum that will be filled by private militias. Putin is the new James Buchanan, the American president who was unable and unwilling to do anything to stop the coming Civil War. Restive republics like Tatarstan will be compelled to form their own militias too, if only to protect themselves from thieving warlords, which will eventually lead to at least a few republics breaking away. 5. The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure. Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians. I don’t see this manifesting itself until there is a breakthrough in the lines by Ukraine and panic sets in among Russian units. At that point the shit hits the fan. x As I said yesterday, this whole episode should be viewed through the lense of what in Russia is called ‘razborki’ - gangland warfare Sometimes it ends in death and leadership changes and sometimes in sitdowns where both sides shake hands and agree to move on (at least for a bit) — Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 24, 2023 ----------------------------------------------------— What could possibly go wrong with putting a bootlicker in charge of the Russian military? x Russian sources say Aleksey Dyumin, former bodyguard of Putin and current governor of the Tula region, might become the new Russian defense minister replacing Shoigu. They say it was him that unofficially resolved the conflict with Prigozhin. Surovikin might become Chief of GS. pic.twitter.com/jspX6bAk22 — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 25, 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------ These guys were left hanging out to dry. They are dead men walking. x Complete disappointment in Prigozhin: Yesterday, convicts from Russian Storm Z unit publicly supported Prigozhin's march on Moscow. One day later, they recorded another video. This time, Storm Z accused Prigozhin of turning around and halting his march. pic.twitter.com/owMcCplouz — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 25, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------— This is one of the better Prigozhin memes out there. x yevgeny what’s going on💀 pic.twitter.com/jJinEEWhwk — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 25, 2023 ------------------------------------------------------— Even if the 720 figure is exaggerated by 50%, how long can an army — even an army that cares little about the lives of its soldiers — sustain those losses? x Russian losses over the last 24-hours including 24 artillery pieces and 720 Ladas. The MoD is not counting the aircraft Russia lost yesterday in the coup attempt. Note the 41 cruise missiles shot down in one day. That is more than Russia's monthly production capacity and cost… pic.twitter.com/9VySnyD2S8 — OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) June 25, 2023 ----------------------------------------------------— It’s hard to imagine how disease hasn’t already decimated Russian troops. x 9/ "There are dead, but the bodies have not been removed. He said that they were taking summer uniforms off the dead and putting them on, because it was very hot in winter uniforms. They have not been given any uniforms since autumn 2022, they are too hot." — ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) June 25, 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------- Ukraine has established a small bridgehead on the eastern side of the Dnipro River across from the Antonivski Bridge. x Footage from how Russian units were evacuated from the area near the Antonivskyi bridge on the left bank. A Russian BTR-80/82(?) clearly provides cover and shoots towards the area mentioned earlier, reportedly under Ukrainian control. 📍46.660754893794206, 32.72090625716509 https://t.co/nZiIn7rL3i pic.twitter.com/joitcctceK — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 25, 2023 x ⚡️Link to soundhttps://t.co/NwczBttdfo — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 25, 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------- This is the plane shot down by Wagner that had 10 aboard. ---------------------------------------------------------- Three Grads with one strike is a good day. x Switching back to eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian counterbattery fire continues to be extremely effective. In the center of Donetsk city, Ukrainian forces from the 110th Mechanized Brigade hit a trio of Russian Bm-21 Grads with drone-spotted counterbattery fire. pic.twitter.com/HSdhODW8VS — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 25, 2023 ------------------------------------------------------— That’s a whole lot of trucks going kaboom. x Destruction of multiple Russian fuel and ammo trucks (KAMAZ 5350) near Novohorivka in the Zaporozhye AO. Someone tried to drive away in the first truck so 200. Lots of orcs running for the trees. It looks like barrel artillery and then it doesn't look like barrel artillery. Too… pic.twitter.com/tP5adsiPUz — OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) June 25, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------— Swiss cheese doesn’t have this many holes. x ⚡️View of the road to Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/3ynW7Z1xgx — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 25, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------— Another reason why there won’t be any forgiveness of Russia in Ukraine for generations. x Ukrainian members of the Moscow Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church (MP-ROC) scream "shame" and jeer at the family of a UAF soldier who were attending his funeral at a Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) service. Why? Because that church ( Voskresensʹka Tserkva in Krasyliv.… pic.twitter.com/Xb9TCYj011 — OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) June 25, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------— In the old days it was a sergeant yelling at you. 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