(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Putin-Prigozhin Ruse of the Century: Keep an Eye on Belarus! [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-06-26 “None of this makes sense” is the most used truism in response to what happened in Russia over the weekend. But to me, this all made perfect sense. At some point during that oscar worthy “failed coup” by Prigozhin, something clicked in my mind and I knew then exactly what was going on. What I’m about to outline will be dismissed by some. However, this is just my perspective of what is going on behind the scenes. I’ve been analyzing Russia for years. It's an intriguing place that captures the imagination. A lot of people in the West don’t understand how they operate. This often leads us to either overestimate or underestimate them. I’m gonna put some nuggets on the table, so follow along with me and things might start to make more sense to you by the end of this diary. According to a Russian military doctrine stated in 2010, nuclear weapons could be used by Russia "in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened". Most military analysts believe that, in this case, Russia would pursue an 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy, initiating limited nuclear exchange to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Russia will also threaten nuclear conflict to discourage initial escalation of any major conventional conflict. The problem for Putin is that Russia’s escalate to-de-escalate strategy no longer has the bite it once had. Armed with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, Russia had milked that strategy for years. It was a clever way to deter the West while masking the weaknesses and inefficiencies of Russia’s conventional forces. Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons so often, that no one takes them seriously anymore. They are like that boy who cried wolf. Furthermore, the War in Ukraine has ripped that mask off their conventional military in such a way that Russia’s credibility is seriously undermined in the West. So whenever Putin makes threats these days, he’s pretty much treated as an old man yelling at the wind. The effectiveness of Russia’s escalate to de-escalate strategy is entirely dependent on people believing that they might actually pull the nuclear trigger. The ironic thing is, as crazy and irrational as Putin seems with his blunder in Ukraine, western intelligence still largely views him as a stable, cautious, and fairly predictable figure. This is why Biden has been willing to cross so many of Putin’s red lines but in a gradual boiling-the-frog kind of way. The Washington Post President Biden’s decision last month to help Ukraine obtain F-16 fighter jets marked another crossing of a Russian red line that Vladimir Putin has said would transform the war and draw Washington and Moscow into direct conflict. Despite the Russian leader’s apocalyptic warnings, the United States has gradually agreed to expand Ukraine’s arsenal with Javelin and Stinger missiles, HIMARS rocket launchers, advanced missile defense systems, drones, helicopters, M1 Abrams tanks and, soon, fourth-generation fighter jets. A key reason for brushing aside Putin’s threats, U.S. officials say, is a dynamic that has held since the opening days of the war: Russia’s president has not followed through on promises to punish the West for providing weapons to Ukraine. His bluffing has given U.S. and European leaders some confidence they can continue doing so without severe consequences — but to what extent remains one of the conflict’s most dangerous uncertainties. I highlighted that last sentence intentionally. Biden’s strategy has been very effective in Ukraine, but it does come with that dangerous uncertainty. One of the more crazy things I’ve seen from some commentators here on Dkos and elsewhere is the idea that Russia can be completely dislodged from Ukraine, including annexed Crimea, without any plausible risk of nuclear escalation. Yes, it is a fact that Russia’s conventional military is weak. The US has enough capabilities to make Ukraine win this war in fairly short order if it wants, but we shouldn’t be totally blinded by hubris. There is a reason why Biden has been so gradual with his approach even while crossing certain red lines. I’m gonna circle back to Prigozhin soon so please don’t leave yet… When Putin crossed the Rubicon and launched his ill-fated war against Ukraine, he knew there was no turning back. I don’t think he imagines that things would have gone so bad for him initially, but when he made that conscious decision in his head, he knows this is his last act. For that reason, the actual threat of nuclear escalation in Ukraine is far, far higher than many in the West appreciate. Putin sees himself as the embodiment of the Russian State. He has gambled everything on this war. At 70 years old, it’s double or nothing for him at this point. In his mind, and the minds of many Russians, losing the War in Ukraine would represent such an existential threat to them that it would warrant a nuclear response. Putin knows his time is almost up anyways (Russian men don’t have the longest life expectancies), I don’t think we should underestimate his willingness to roll that dice if he feels he needs to. But Putin is very calculating — sometimes too calculating that he miscalculates spectacularly. If he wants to shoot you, he’s never the one to pull the trigger. As a former intelligence officer, he has refined the art of getting others to do his dirty work. Not that we won’t know that he set it up, he likes to engineer fear in others while operating under a cloud of deniability. One of his biggest concerns right now is that the West doesn’t take his threats seriously anymore. Russia’s escalate to de-escalate strategy has been completely defanged because no one believes they will actually follow through on anything. But what if Putin was to find a veritable madman with a criminal background, who is known for being ruthless and brazen, and who has shown some mettle on the battlefield? What if you know this madman will say or do anything to achieve an end, has a machiavellian mindset similar to you, is a master propagandist who will go to extraordinary lengths in a psyops operation? While you ponder those questions, here’s something else to ruminate: [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177730/-This-Russian-Ruse-is-Clear-as-Day Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/