(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ukraine Invasion Day 490: Prigozhin remains alive, despite mutiny [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-06-27 #Putin may be presenting #Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The #Kremlin will likely regard the #Wagner Group personnel who follow #Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Prigozhin apparently thought he would get some support from regular Russian units on his “march” to Moscow, but got few takers when it may have counted. Senior American officials suggest that an alliance between General Sergei Surovikin and Prigozhin could explain why Prigozhin is still alive, despite seizing a major Russian military hub and ordering an armed march on Moscow. Putin has likely decided that he cannot directly eliminate Prigozhin without making him a martyr at this time. Prigozhin still retains some support within Russian society and the Russian regular forces, and the Kremlin will need to ensure that these groups become disillusioned with Prigozhin to effectively deprive him of his popular support in Russia. Prigozhin campaigned for military command changes by accusing the Russian MoD of mistreating regular Russian military personnel in combat – a message that likely appealed to many servicemen and their families disillusioned with mobilization, casualties, supply shortages, and great loss of life with little to show for it. The Kremlin needs to separate Prigozhin’s cause from his persona, lest an attack on Prigozhin be perceived as a Kremlin attack on his popular narrative and his stated objectives of punishing the criminally incompetent Russian MoD leadership. The Kremlin will likely continue to attack Prigozhin’s character to break Prigozhin’s popular support, discourage Wagner personnel from following him to Belarus, and destroy his financial power. Lukashenko also announced on June 27 that Belarus had received an unspecified number of Russian nuclear weapons on a previous date – a development that Lukashenko may also use to balance against the Kremlin’s campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State. Belarusian opposition railway workers claimed on June 27 that Russian nuclear weapons will be delivered to the base of the 2631st Missile and Air Ammunition Storage Base in Prudok, Vitebsk Oblast. [16] www.understandingwar.org/... Key Takeaways Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin as corrupt and a liar to destroy his reputation among Wagner personnel and within Russian society. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s account of his mediation between Putin and Prigozhin on June 24-25 in tandem with Putin’s June 26 speech indicates that Putin promised Lukashenko and Prigozhin that Prigozhin and the Wagner Group would have “security guarantees” in Belarus. Lukashenko likely seeks to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to buy maneuvering space to balance against the Kremlin campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State and likely seeks to closely control any Wagner Group forces that move into Belarus. Lukashenko also announced on June 27 that Belarus had received an unspecified number of Russian nuclear weapons on a previous date – a development that Lukashenko may also use to balance against the Kremlin’s campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State. The ongoing Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin powerplay is not yet over and will continue to have short-term and long-term consequences that may benefit Ukraine. The Kremlin campaign to destroy Prigozhin’s reputation and possibly dissolve the Wagner Group’s Ukraine force decreases the probability of Putin announcing a new round of reserve mobilization in the near term. Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 27. Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the Ukrainian main counteroffensive effort on June 27, possibly signaling his own defensive priority. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna. Ukrainian officials are signaling that Ukrainian forces are capitalizing on the armed rebellion in Russia and intensifying counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area as of June 27. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts’ administrative border area. Russian milbloggers expressed concern at Ukrainian attempts to advance south of Kherson City. Russian officials expressed varied opinions on the future of private military companies (PMCs) in response to the armed rebellion. The UN reported that Russia has detained hundreds of Ukrainian civilians since the start of the war in Ukraine. www.understandingwar.org/... By 2022 “ammunition had been depleted by regular explosions at Ukrainian arsenals as a result of Russian sabotage,” analysts Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained in a new study for the Royal United Services Institute in London. “From 2014 to 2018, there were six such explosions, which destroyed more than 210,000 tons of ammunition, a large part of which were 152-mm shells and rockets for [multiple-launch rocket systems],” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote. “For comparison, during the five years of the war in Donbas, the [Ukrainian armed forces] spent about 70,000 tons of ammunition in total.” www.rusi.org/... x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 27 Equipment losses up between days in dollar terms DEVELOPMENT: $2.4B in the last 30 days ⬆ $57M reported today ⬆ Artillery & APVs account for roughly half of today's reported losses 📈 https://t.co/SGT3SrS4M7 pic.twitter.com/oVZIYiYvRj — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 ragnarbjartur@masto.ai (@ragnarbjartur) June 27, 2023 Russian forces summarily executed 77 civilians they had arbitrarily detained during Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a UN report says. Another male detainee died from torture, inhumane conditions and denial of medical care, the report adds. The UN documented 864 individual cases of arbitrary detention by Russia since it launched its invasion last February. Ukraine also violated international law by detaining civilians, though on a much smaller scale, the report adds. "We documented the summary execution of 77 civilians while they were arbitrarily detained by the Russian Federation," Maltilda Bogner, head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission told a press briefing in Geneva on Tuesday. Some 72 of those killed were men and five were women. Summary executions, or the immediate and deliberate killing of individuals without a fair and full trial, is a violation of human rights. Russia denies committing atrocities or attacking civilians in Ukraine. The mission did not document any summary executions of civilian detainees by Ukrainian forces. www.bbc.com/... x A Russian missile strike tore into a popular pizza restaurant at dinnertime in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk on Tuesday, killing at least four people and injuring more than 40 others, according to Ukrainian officials. https://t.co/A85zBynpBv pic.twitter.com/hI4kuwkayd — The New York Times (@nytimes) June 27, 2023 Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna on June 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove). [28] ... The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled two Ukrainian ground attacks in an unspecified area in the Lyman direction… www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian officials are signaling that Ukrainian forces are capitalizing on the armed rebellion in Russia and intensifying counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area as of June 27. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces considered the Wagner Group-Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) conflict when planning operations in eastern Ukraine. Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces have conducted counteroffensive operations and made advances on the flanks of Bakhmut for the fourth consecutive day. [32] Malyar stated that the Bakhmut situation is complex because Russian forces occupy extensive fortifications in the city, and that Ukrainian forces will advance more slowly. The Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces have the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area. [33] Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Andriy Kovalev stated that Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), Kurdyumivka (14km southwest of Bakhmut), and Pivnichne (20km southwest of Bakhmut) areas on Bakhmut’s flanks. [34] … Ukrainian forces have reportedly made marginal advances in areas that Russian proxy forces have occupied since 2014. The UK MoD reported that Ukrainian forces have made marginal advances east of Krasnohorivka (immediately west of Donetsk City) as of June 27, the first reported instance of Ukrainian forces recapturing territory occupied before 2014. [42] ISW has not observed independent confirmation of Ukrainian forces recapturing long-occupied territory, however. The UK MoD assessed that recent Ukrainian attacks have likely overstretched Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Chechen forces operating in Donetsk Oblast. [43] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts’ administrative border area on June 27. Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Andrii Kovalev stated that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counteroffensive operations in the Novodarivka-Pryyutne (Velyka Novosilka) direction. [44] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the Eastern Group of Forces repelled three Ukrainian attacks in the Velyka Novosilka area. [45] A Russian source reported that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks near Novodonetske (11km southeast of Velyka Novosilka) and Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka). [46] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian forces repelled four Ukrainian attacks near Rivnopil (9km southwest of Velyka Novosilka). [47] Russian sources claimed that heavy fighting is ongoing near the Vremivka salient and warned that if Ukrainian forces advanced further, they will likely be able to cut off the Vremivka salient. [48] Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia on June 27. Kovalev stated that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counteroffensive operations in the Novodanylivka-Robotyne (Orikhiv) direction. [54] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces stopped a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group near Robotyne (12km south of Orikhiv). [55] Rogov claimed that Russian forces stopped a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group in the Myrne (17km southwest of Orikhiv) area. [56] Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces renewed attacks near Robotyne to regain control of the previously liberated Ukrainian positions north of the settlement that Russian forces recaptured on June 26. [57] ...Geolocated footage published on June 27, however, shows the Russian 429thMotorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) striking Ukrainian positions in Pyatykhakty. [58] Rogov published footage on June 27 that purportedly shows elements of the Russian 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) operating near Robotyne. [59] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x I have been part of a panel of experts discussing #Prigozhin’s mutiny, and it’s impacts, on this live Q&A at the ⁦@abcnews⁩ website. Check out the discussion at the link. https://t.co/VwgTrPJVWm — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) June 28, 2023 Could Wagner attack Kiev while Ukraine is focused on the Eastern front? Once the Wagner Group are in Belarus why wouldn’t they attack Kiev while Ukraine is focused on the eastern front? We’ve just seen a masterclass in taking a large city. - Matthew Hi Matthew, thanks for your question. Here's what military strategist Mick Ryan says: I don’t think ‘taking Rostov’ was much of an achievement. The Russians there did not see Wagner Group as an enemy, and for most people it would have been seen as just another Russian security organization coming into the city. Also, I think the motives of Wagner would have been unclear to military leaders early on, and they would have been reticent to fire on them (especially if they had no direction to do so). Finally, on the threat from Belarus now - lots of uncertainty here. However, the Ukrainians well understand the threat from the north and do assign forces and intelligence collection to the north to prevent surprise. And it should go without saying that there is no way Wagner would be able to March on Kyiv like they did on Moscow. If the Ukrainians could stop a massive Russian Army force in 2022, they would make short work of Wagner (which now also lacks heavy weapons). What is the future of Wagner? Comments from Putin and Belarus seem to suggest that Wagner members have the option of moving over to Belarus. Will Belarus have direct control over Wagner now or is this a sophisticated Russian trap? - Josh Hi Josh, thanks for writing in. I've put your question to our global affairs editor John Lyons, who writes: Hi Josh - I don't think we know the future of Wagner. There are many unanswered questions out of the latest drama and this is one of them. We hear reports that some Wagner fighters are angry with Prigozhin that he didn't let them know about the rebellion but it's hard to read. My view is that Prigozhin still has influence over many of them, especially if he can keep paying them. He is something of a cult-like leader to many of them. So I think the key to the future of Wagner lies with with Prigozhin does. Does he go back to Africa where he has many clients for "security services" such as Mali, and much wealth from gold and diamond mines there? Or does he sit in Belarus and watch what happens at the top of the Kremlin? I tend to think he wants to stay around and see what opportunities there are for him in Moscow. www.abc.net.au/... [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/27/2178022/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-490-Prigozhin-remains-alive-despite-mutiny Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/