(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Minnesota State House Districts (2024): HD 14A, HD 14B, HD 58A, HD 18A, HD 2A [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-07-10 Note: this story was originally published a few months ago, but was republished to correct an error in the post’s heading (which excluded one of the districts covered). Today, I am going to look at five more Minnesota house districts: HD 14A, HD 14B, HD 58A, HD 18A, and HD 2A. Minnesota House District 14A MN HD 14A encompasses southern and western parts of the St. Cloud area, including the community of Waite Park. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 14A had been a competitive district at the presidential level, if not somewhat Republican leaning, with Mitt Romney carrying the seat by about 3 points in 2012 and Donald Trump carrying it by between 11 and 12 points in 2016 and by a narrower 2-point margin in 2020. The state house races had also been somewhat competitive, with Republican incumbent Tama Theis winning by about 9.5 points in 2016, by about 4 points in 2018, and by nearly 8 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made HD 14A even more competitive, with the new district adding in more of the city of St. Cloud, which is Dem-leaning. In particular, Joe Biden would have now carried the seat by a little more than a percentage point. In 2022, the state house race was very close, with Republican Bernie Perryman winning the open seat by between 1 and 2 points, while at the statewide level, Dems Tim Walz (Governor’s race), and Steve Simon (Secretary of State race) both carried the district. Specifically, Walz carried the seat by just under 2 points, while Simon carried the seat by a little more than 3 points. In addition, Dem Aric Putnam also carried the district by about 3.5 points in the overlapping 2022 State Senate race. (And note that Theis was Putnam’s Republican opponent.) Given how close the previous results have been, the district should be competitive again this cycle and a potential pick-up opportunity for Dems. I’m classifying HD 14A as a Toss Up. Minnesota House District 14B MN HD 14B encompasses northern and eastern parts of the St. Cloud area. HD 14B had been a fairly swingy district under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Barack Obama by between 9 and 10 points in 2012 to supporting Trump by a little more than 3 points in 2016, but moving back towards the Dems in 2020, with Biden winning the seat by just over 8 points. The seat had also changed parties at least twice, with Republican Jim Knoblach flipping the seat by less than a percentage point in 2014 and narrowly winning reelection by less than 3 points in 2016, but Democrat Dan Wolgamott flipping the seat back in 2018, easily defeating Knoblach by over 16 points, and being reelected by a somewhat narrower 12-point margin in 2020. (Note that Knoblach unofficially withdrew from the race in 2018, which may have partially explained Wolgamott’s particularly large margin that cycle). The 2022 redistricting made HD 14B a few points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 4 points. (A greater portion of the city St. Cloud was moved into HD 14A, as previously noted in that district’s paragraph.) The 2022 state house race was fairly close, with Wolgamott winning by nearly 4 points. Wolgamott underperformed Walz by about a percentage point and did several points worse than Simon, who carried the district by nearly 8 points. HD 14B should be highly contested again this cycle. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up. Minnesota House District 58A MN HD 58A encompasses southern exurbs of the Twin Cities metro area, such as Cedar Lake and portions of Northfield. HD 58A overlaps much of the pre-2022 iteration of HD 20B, which had been a Dem-leaning district that moved a bit to the right in recent years, having gone for Obama by nearly 10 points, but only narrowly supporting Hillary Clinton by less than 2 points and Biden by between 3 and 4 points. At the state house level, Democrat Todd Lippert fairly handily won HD 20B in 2018, winning the open seat by nearly 11 points and slightly outrunning the previous Dem incumbent’s 2016 margin. He was reelected in 2020 by a narrower 5-point margin (slightly outperforming Biden). However, HD 58A is several points bluer than HD 20B, with Biden carrying the former district by between 6 and 7 points. For the 2022 HD 58A state house race, Democrat Kristi Purcell won the open seat by about 9 points, running ahead of Biden. The 2022 statewide Dems also showed relative improvements over Biden, with Walz carrying the seat by over 10 points and Simon carrying the seat by over 13 points. Furthermore, Dem Julie Blaha (State Auditor) barely underperformed Biden in the district, despite doing about 7 points worse than he did statewide. Purcell should definitely be favored this cycle, but it still seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying HD 58A as Lean Democrat (though I could see shifting the rating to “Likely Democrat” if the Republicans don’t end up seriously contesting the district). Minnesota House District 18A MN HD 18A is located just north of Mankato in the southern part of the state and contains communities such as Nicollet. HD 18A seems to be geographically identical to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 19A, which was fairly competitive at the presidential level, with Obama carrying it by between 7 and 8 points in 2012, Trump carrying it by about 4 points in 2016, and Biden carrying it by just under 3 points in 2020. Many of the recent state house races for HD 19A were also competitive, with Dem incumbent Clark Johnson winning by about 5.5 points in 2016, though the district wasn’t as close in 2018, with Dem Jeff Brand winning the open seat by between 8 and 9 points. In 2020, Republican Susan Akland was able to flip the seat, despite Biden’s victory in the district, as she defeated Brand by a razor thin margin (less than half a percentage point). However, Brand managed to flip back HD 18A in 2022, defeating Akland by just over 2 points. In comparison to the 2022 statewide Dems, Brand slightly underperformed Walz and Simon, who carried the seat by about 6 points and 5 points, respectively. HD 18A should be competitive this cycle, given the swingy nature of the district. I’m classifying the seat as a Toss Up. Minnesota House District 2A MN HD 2A is located in the northwestern part of the state, stretching all the way to the Canadian border. Under the pre-2022 boundaries HD 2A had become a solidly Republican district, having easily supported Trump by over 22 points in 2020 and simultaneously reelecting its Republican incumbent by 25 points, but was ancestrally Democratic, having been Dem-held prior to 2014 and only having narrowly supported Romney by 2 points. However, the 2022 redistricting made HD 2A considerably more competitive, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to under 5 points under the new boundaries. Specifically, the Dem-leaning community of Bemidji was added to the district, while Republican leaning areas towards the district’s southern end were removed. In 2022, the state house race was somewhat competitive, with Republican incumbent Matthew Grossell winning reelection by just under 9 points, while the statewide Dem performances were fairly unimpressive, with Walz losing the district by nearly 8 points, and Simon losing the district by between 5 and 6 points, both underperforming Biden (despite not doing any worse than he did statewide). Grossell should be favored, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given the fairly close 2020 presidential result (though the 2022 results seem less promising for Dems). I’m classifying HD 2A as Lean Republican. Thanks to Minnesota Secretary of State website (for the 2022 statewide results of the new districts), cnanalysis.com (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data). 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