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The climate crisis is happening now [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2023-07-10  

At this moment, life-threatening floods are affecting a large area of the Northeast. The floods are the result of a slow-moving storm that spent more than a day crossing New York and Connecticut, and is now moving into New England. At least one person has died in New York's Hudson Valley, thousands of homes are underwater, and major highways have suffered extensive damage.

The storm has also generated a major disruption of travel, both by air and rail. Most flights into the hub airport at Newark, New Jersey, were canceled on Sunday, along with many flights in or out of New York and Boston, resulting in a cascade effect of canceled flights and stranded travelers across the nation. Total rainfall is expected to match—and in some areas, exceed—the flooding that resulted when Tropical Storm Irene crashed into the Northeast in 2011.

But even as these storms are washing away roads and ruining homes in New England, a fresh heat wave is boiling into the country from the Southwest, one that is expected to blanket the United States in dangerously hot weather over the next two weeks. Meanwhile, those swimming off the Florida coast may soon not have to worry about sharks because the water is becoming too hot for sharks. Or other fish. Or coral. Or just about anything else.

The rains are continuing to fall across New England on Monday, with some areas already receiving 6 inches or more. The result is bringing disaster both in more mountainous areas, where towns are often located in narrow valleys that channel water for a large area, and in low-lying areas nearer to the coast, where “tidal waves” of water are testing the strength of both dams and bridges.

x Serious, life-threatening flooding is occurring today across much of Vermont. Emergency crews have conducted rescues in multiple communities. About two dozen state roads are closed as of 10AM. Flash flood warnings are in effect from the Massachusetts line to the Canadian border. pic.twitter.com/09ryZ1N7bR — Vermont State Police (@VTStatePolice) July 10, 2023

x Breaking news: Angry commuters show admirable determination in confronting, head on, Stop Oil’s pernicious and harmful myth of “climate change.”pic.twitter.com/m9Kr85lV9f — Peter Kay (@theonlypeterkay) July 9, 2023

x Heavy rain led to extreme flooding in New York’s Hudson Valley that killed at least one person, swamped roadways and forced road closures on Sunday night. pic.twitter.com/SAw8J2Sd7n — The Associated Press (@AP) July 10, 2023

While those storms have been wrecking homes and lives in the East, another kind of storm fueled by heat and humidity has been causing damage in the Midwest and Great Plains. The weekend brought hurricane-force wind gusts, severe thunderstorms, and damaging hail to many areas. Another cycle of such storms is expected to begin on Monday evening.

For farmers who had already been dealing with either flooded fields from localized heavy rain or stunted crops from days of scorching heat, these storms put an end to crops in some areas.

x Decimated corn crops by hail as far as the eye can see north of Denver International Airport from round-after-round of severe storms pic.twitter.com/ACuXZOgUxv — Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerAccu) July 8, 2023

To the southeast, off the coast of Florida, water temperatures have gone beyond bathwater warm into temperatures that are uncomfortable even for swimming. Those worried about great white sharks or many other species of predators might be relieved to know that the waters are well above the temperatures those animals can tolerate. However, they’re also at a level that is deadly for coral and for many other creatures that live in coastal reef environments. In recent years, rising temperatures have been driving many species north as water temperatures rise, but there are few animals that can tolerate temperatures like these.

x Ok, not sure I've ever seen the water around Florida look quite like this before... at any time of year. 😬 pic.twitter.com/xY8Xr7ZvJx — Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) July 9, 2023

Cool waters, around 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), can hold almost 11 milligrams of dissolved oxygen in each liter. But as temperature increases, the amount of oxygen that the water can hold decreases. At 70 degrees, the carrying capacity is down to less than 9 milligrams per liter. At 90 degrees, the oxygen level is at a point where many organisms are suffering as well as taking direct damage from heat. Buoys in some areas off Florida are now recording temperatures of 95. That’s a full 10 degrees above what’s tolerable for reef-building coral, for many fish, and for dolphins.

In addition to that ecological damage, these hot waters are a time bomb, just waiting to impart massive amounts of energy to the first hurricane or tropical storm that wanders by. Earlier in the year, the National Hurricane Center had actually predicted a low to normal level of storms based on the typical response to weather systems in an El Niño year. Now the predicted number of storms has been increased, expressly because this reservoir of extremely hot water offers such potential for disaster. (Note: There are currently no tropical storms expected to pop up in the next few days so … take a breather on that point for now.)

x Forecasters up predictions to ‘above normal’ hurricane season due to record warm sea temperatures https://t.co/feDyUf6EV3 pic.twitter.com/M1oPed7a3j — South Florida Sun Sentinel (@SunSentinel) July 6, 2023

Meanwhile, as The Guardian reports, the U.S. is bracing for another record-shattering heat wave. The first victims will be cities in the Southwest, which have barely rolled out of the last heat wave but are set to see temperatures that would be chilling … except they’re the opposite. This is especially true for Arizona over the coming week.

The NWS said next week’s temperatures will range in the highs from 113 to 118F (45 to 48C) across the lower deserts on Wednesday and Thursday. It added that there are pockets of 5-10% probability of reaching a dangerous 120F (49C).

Forecasters point out that the current weather patterns match those in a 1995 heat wave that brought deadly temperatures above 120 to several Arizona cities.

The National Weather Service is warning residents to stay indoors, keep air conditioners on, cancel any outdoor activities, watch out for kids and pets, and check on elderly relatives and neighbors. In this kind of weather condition, fans are likely to be inadequate. Their air is so hot that making it move still doesn’t provide enough evaporative cooling.

Meteorologist Jason Farhang predicts that the coming heat wave is going to affect a large part of the South, reaching from the West Coast to Louisiana. However, the biggest effect may be a “heat dome” from California to Texas that will bring “60% to 70% above average temperatures for much of California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico.”

Last week brought the hottest day in history, followed by the hottest day in history, then the hottest day in history, and after that … the hottest day in history. Those records could fall again before the month is out.

And just because we’re not breaking that all-time record at the moment doesn’t mean that things have now cooled over the last few days. Yesterday’s temperature would have been an all-time record had last Thursday not nudged the bar so high. This is an Earth warmer than any human being has seen, not just since before the founding of Sumeria, or before the development of agriculture, or before any human reached the Americas, or before the first cave painting: It’s a temperature associated with an ecosystem that has long ceased to exist.

That would have also been a world where sea levels were much higher, because it’s also the last time the planet had no ice caps.

We’ve gotten so used to the idea that today will be a little warmer than yesterday, which was a little warmer than the day before, which was definitely warmer than the previous year … that many people have skipped straight from climate crisis denial to disassociating the disasters around us with what we’re doing to the Earth’s climate.

A washed out road in New York. That’s the climate crisis.

Thousands of travelers stranded at airports. That’s the climate crisis.

Fisheries and reefs dying off the coast of Florida. That’s the climate crisis.

Large agricultural areas being damaged in ways that may affect food pricing. That’s the climate crisis.

And yes, record temperatures across many states are also the climate crisis.

Maybe the best thing that reporters, weather forecasters, and scientists can do right now is to stop equivocating. Drop those qualifiers of, “Well, we can’t be sure about any single weather event …” Stop temporizing to avoid saying something that might offend the most rock-headed viewer.

Of course these events are caused by the climate crisis. Everything has been for years. Everything will be for decades to come. Pretending otherwise is like saying that this weather may not have been affected by the presence of air. The climate crisis is just as ubiquitous. It’s with us every minute, everywhere, during winter and summer. It affects every action and every policy.

And it can’t be fought without embracing the all-encompassing threat it represents to every aspect of our lives, the lives of others, and the survival of creatures and ecosystems around the planet.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/10/2180288/-Climate-crisis-Flood-fire-and-ice

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