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Secretary of State Frank LaRose has gone out on a limb to support Issue 1. What will that mean for his U.S. Senate race?: Analysis [1]

['Andrew', 'Tobias', 'Atobias Cleveland.Com', 'Andrew J. Tobias']

Date: 2023-07-20 16:39:03.090000+00:00

COLUMBUS, Ohio – A superpower for some politicians, for better or worse, is their ability to avoid controversy unless absolutely necessary, allowing them to pick their battles and focus on fights they think they can win.

Exhibit A is Gov. Mike DeWine, whose favorite comment about a pending hot-button bill in Columbus is that he hasn’t had a chance to review it closely yet, and that the legislative process should be given time to play out.

But Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate earlier this week, has ensured that he will be at the center of this year’s most heated political issue: the fight over abortion in Ohio.

And while it’s too simple to say that his political fortunes will rise or fall with State Issue 1, his close ties to the measure will offer plenty of chances for him to catch attacks from across the political spectrum.

After LaRose got in the Senate race on Monday, one of his Republican opponents, Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, quickly accused him of getting distracted from his official duties, including helping oversee the Aug. 8 election, when voters will decide State Issue 1.

“Unfortunately, LaRose has taken his eye off the ball in his attempt to climb the political ladder,” read a statement from a Moreno campaign spokesman.

On the other side of the aisle, LaRose also is the star of an anti-Issue 1 attack ad. The ad from One Person One Vote splices a video clip in which LaRose described Issue 1 to a Republican audience as “100%” about abortion, as well as being relevant to several other issues.

The ad fits hand-in-glove with the 2024 political strategy from Ohio Democrats. They’ve telegraphed they see LaRose as a formidable potential opponent by making him the subject of near-weekly press releases. A poll this week from USA Today / Suffolk University poll showed LaRose tied at 45% with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the strongest result of any of the three GOP contenders. Democrats in Ohio and nationally also are likely to emphasize abortion rights heading into next year’s election, a topic national Republicans would prefer to avoid.

“Frank LaRose has put himself at the center of the August special election by pushing for changes that benefit special interests and silence the voices of the Ohioans he’s supposed to be working for,” Ohio Democratic Party spokesperson Reeves Oyster said in a statement provided for this story. “Ohioans are once again left wondering, what is Frank LaRose really doing for us?”

Many key Ohio Republicans back State Issue 1, which would make it harder to pass future constitutional amendments, including a potential abortion-rights amendment in November. There’s a compelling argument to be made though that LaRose is the issue’s most prominent face.

Republican lawmakers have debated making it harder to change the state constitution for years, particularly after gaming interests funded a successful constitutional amendment campaign in 2009 to legalize casino gambling. A subcommittee of a blue-ribbon state panel, the Ohio Constitutional Modernization Commission, recommended raising the approval threshold to 55%, but the idea languished.

Then the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, sending the issue of abortion back to the states. Four months later, the idea of making it harder to amend the state constitution bubbled up again, after LaRose floated the idea during an October meeting with the editorial board for cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer.

“We have casinos and medical marijuana and all manner of things that now have found their way into the Ohio Constitution,” LaRose said during the meeting. “And so I think the signature threshold may be one thing to look at, but another one might be, it takes a supermajority vote in the legislature to refer a question to the ballot, why not require a supermajority vote of the citizens in order to pass a constitutional amendment?”

The idea quickly caught on with Republicans in Columbus. LaRose led the charge.

In late November, LaRose joined with state Rep. Brian Stewart in an unsuccessful push for the General Assembly to pass a State Issue 1-like proposal during the final weeks of the legislature’s “lame duck” session. He also testified in favor of the proposal when it finally began moving through the state legislature in April.

When the GOP-controlled General Assembly voted in May to put State Issue 1 before voters, setting a rare August election to decide it, LaRose hit the campaign circuit, arguing for the measure as part of a Senate-candidate style stump speech.

One comment LaRose made at a local Republican Party function on May 22 has made its way into anti-Issue 1 ads. Speaking before the Seneca County Republican Party, LaRose told audience members that Issue 1 is “100%” about abortion, although he went on to say it’s also relevant to preventing future ballot issues opposed by the key supporters of Issue 1: hiking the minimum wage, potentially legalizing recreational marijuana or rolling back gun rights.

But the “100% about abortion” part is what made it into the ad.

“They’re trying to rig the rules to lock in Ohio’s extreme abortion ban,” a narrator for the ad says, referencing the six-week abortion ban that temporarily took effect last year before it placed on hold due to a legal challenging that’s pending before the Republican-controlled Ohio Supreme Court.

LaRose said his comment was taken out of context. But he’s also nixed the “100%” line from his pro-Issue 1 stump speech.

During an interview with cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer this week, LaRose, who has described himself as pro-life, said he’s not worried about whether he’s tied himself too closely to State Issue 1 and the broader abortion issue. He’s continued to make pro-Issue 1 advocacy a top priority, working the county GOP circuit and even putting a “Yes on 1″ sign into the video announcing his U.S. Senate candidacy.

“I don’t make decisions based on what I think is in my political best interest. I make decisions based on what I think is best for Ohioans. Leaders have to step up and lead, and if you stick your finger in the wind to find out which way the wind’s blowing, you’re not going to be a very capable leader,” he said. “I’ve done what I think is best … And that’s why I’ve been helping to lead the charge on this.”

“And by the way, I’m not going to take my eye off the ball. I’ll be out campaigning for Issue 1 over the next few weeks, even though I’ve announced my campaign for U.S. Senate.”

U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, meanwhile, has argued there’s a straight, political line through State Issue 1, the potential November abortion-rights measure and his reelection campaign. He said as much during a virtual call with Democratic activists earlier this month.

“Everybody you talk to understands this is a power grab,” Brown said during the call. “The only people who don’t want to understand that clearly are Republicans and all the anti-abortion crowd out there.”

“There are a lot more of us than there are of them. And if we get our people to the polls, we win this overwhelmingly. That will give us momentum for the November vote on protecting women’s rights and it will give us momentum then for our elections next year,” Brown said.

Before he gets to Brown, though, LaRose would have to get through Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan, of Chagrin Falls. It’s easy to see how LaRose putting his stamp on Issue 1 could materialize in the Republican primary. If it fails, he opens himself up to being painted as the face of the losing effort. That’s beginning to look likely, after a Suffolk University / USA Today Network poll came out Wednesday night showing the measure losing 59% to 26% among voters who say they plan to vote in 2023 and 2024 elections.

There are many factors that distinguish ballot issue campaigns from candidate elections, which are heavily personality driven in the modern political area. One of them is they don’t provide an obvious villain, like Donald Trump for Democrats or Nancy Pelosi for Republicans, to use as a foil for voters.

Pro-Issue 1 advocates recently have taken to putting drag queens in their ads, a popular way to energize the Republican base in the age of boycotts targeting Bud Light and Target, shoehorning an issue they think will resonate well with conservative-leaning suburban voters (rejecting progressive views on gender) in favor of one that does not (protecting Ohio’s law, which is on hold due to a legal challenge, banning abortion after six weeks.)

And the anti-Issue 1 campaign, One Person One Vote, put LaRose in one of their ads, making him the only Republican to have the distinction of being the target of an attack ad.

It likely won’t be his last.

Andrew Tobias covers state politics and government for cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer

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[1] Url: https://www.cleveland.com/news/2023/07/secretary-of-state-frank-larose-has-gone-out-on-a-limb-to-support-issue-1-what-will-that-mean-for-his-us-senate-race-analysis.html

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