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Why two Ohio polls differ on the GOP's attempt to rig ballot measures [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2023-07-28  

A new survey from Ohio Northern University of the Aug. 8 special election for a GOP-backed measure that would make it harder to pass constitutional amendments paints a very different picture of the race than recent polling from Suffolk University, but the two polls differ considerably in their methodology.

Ohio Northern's poll, which the school says was conducted in collaboration with the polling firm Lucid and relied on a panel from the online research company Qualtrics, did not actually ask respondents how they plan to vote on Issue 1 next month. Rather, the questionnaire first tersely summarized the amendment, saying, "Ohio law currently requires a simple majority (50% + 1 person) of voters to approve a change to the state's constitution." It then asked, "Do you agree or disagree with the effort to increase the threshold to 60%?" 42% say they agree while 41% say they disagree.

Suffolk, by contrast, directly asked voters, "Do you support or oppose State Issue 1?" and found a huge 59-26 majority lined up against it. Just prior to its question, Suffolk laid out the substance of the amendment in much greater detail and included information on two other provisions of Issue 1 that Ohio Northern left out. It's worth reading Suffolk's text, which much more closely approximates the language that voters will see on their ballots, in full:

Next month, Ohio voters will decide State Issue 1, which would require 60% of the vote for a constitutional amendment to pass instead of the current requirement of a simple majority. To put an amendment on the ballot, citizens would need to get signatures from voters in 88 counties instead of the current requirement of 44 counties. Issue 1 would also remove a 10-day period that allows petitioners, if necessary, to gather additional signatures for an amendment.

While the heightened threshold for passage has garnered the most attention, Issue 1 would also make it more difficult for progressives—but not conservatives—to place amendments on the ballot by mandating they gather signatures in all 88 Ohio counties. While progressives must already collect signatures in small rural counties where left-leaning voters are scarce, this proposed increase to that geographic distribution requirement would necessitate that they spend resources in another 44 deep red counties. Conservatives wouldn't be similarly burdened: Just seven counties voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and their dense urban nature makes it easier to find right-leaning voters even on blue turf.

The final plank of Issue 1 would further hamper initiative backers. Ohio currently gives organizers 10 extra days to gather more signatures if their first batch is found insufficient by election officials (activists routinely submit more signatures than the legal minimum because an uncertain number will invariably be found invalid for various reasons).

That grace period is in fact presently underway for a measure that would legalize recreational marijuana after supporters fell just 679 short of their target of 124,046. While that proposal is statutory in nature (as opposed to an amendment to the state constitution) and therefore would not have been affected by Issue 1, eliminating this extra window is yet another way Republicans are hoping to clamp down on citizen-sponsored initiatives. (Suffolk, incidentally, found the marijuana measure passing 59-35; Ohio Northern doesn't appear to have asked about it.)

We can't say which school's explanation of Issue 1 is preferable, but it is worth noting that Ohio Northern's question to respondents is more akin to asking about a politician's favorability rating while Suffolk explicitly asks about the vote at hand, just as you'd ask a horserace question pitting two candidates against one another. But unlike traditional elections, ballot measures are notoriously difficult to poll, so we'll only know which approach was best on Aug. 8.

Interestingly, both pollsters found much more similar results regarding the abortion rights amendment that Republicans are trying to thwart via Issue 1 despite once again taking divergent approaches. Suffolk found voters backing the amendment, which will appear on the Nov. 7 ballot, by a 58-32 margin, while 54% of Ohio Northern's respondents said they agree with the measure versus just 30% who said they disagree. Either figure would be enough to ensure passage under Ohio’s current laws but not if Issue 1 were to pass.

The last paragraph of this post has been updated to clarify where support for the abortion amendment stands vis-a-vis Issue 1.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/28/2183863/-Why-two-Ohio-polls-differ-on-the-GOP-s-attempt-to-rig-ballot-measures

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