(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Stop Waiting Too Long To Act In Time, Grain Convoy Now [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-08-04 To stop all Ukrainian grain exports, last week and again yesterday, Putin attacked Ukrainian ports on the Danube. He has been attacking Odessa on the Black Sea for almost a month. He has mined the channels to Odessa and threatened to destroy any ships sailing there. Russia's intention is clear – to further destroy Ukraine's economy by destroying its vital agricultural sector. The consequences will include soaring global food prices and increased world hunger especially in Africa and the Middle East. Putins's move could be counterproductive. It may force fence sitting Africans to take a stand against the Russian Federation and its invasion -- at last. That might lead to wider sanctions on Russia and perhaps better sanctions enforcement. It might also keep some pressure on China to minimize its support of an increasingly isolated Russian Federation. The West can use the opportunity, with or without a mandate from the General Assembly, to guarantee innocent passage of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea and through the Straits. Turkey could protect the convoys, with its 72 warships large enough to lend heft to the protection effort including 11 ships capable of removing Russian mines. I assume that NATO is already beefing up Odessa’s air defenses. Since NATO is not technically at war with Russia, under the Montreux Treaty which governs passage through the straits, Turkey could permit NATO fleets to help with convoy protection. The US, while not a signatory to Montreux, could send warships up to destroyer class, in support of the convoy plan. The downside: Russia could attack the convoys and their Turkish/NATO protectors. Such an attack would start a direct war with NATO and there is no reason that Putin would think that a useful policy. Except one! Russia and Putin would rather lose to NATO with pride intact rather than lose to despised Ukraine. The Kremlin might hope for a tolerable negotiated settlement with Ukraine alone but once kinetics have begun with NATO, Russia would not expect any leverage in a post conflict agreement. Putin and the Kremlin criminal elite might survive defeat by NATO, less likely that the kleptocratic establishment would politically survive a Ukrainian victory. So, Putin and his kleptocrats might survive defeat by NATO but the terms of the agreement might be far more onerous than a treaty negotiated with Ukraine alone. Should Putin decide to attack NATO convoyed ships, the Kremlin elites might recoil and conclude that he is no longer stable, has become a danger to them all and that could trigger any number of “retirement” options for the bunker grandad. Possibly someone whose name is not widely recognized in the West will arise from the muck to take Putin’s place. On balance, the weight of interest lies against Russian interference with the convoys. The Russian defense establishment knows it is struggling to contain Ukraine alone, it cannot win war against NATO and the US. An attack on NATO protected convoys by the Russian Federation is conceivable, but highly improbable. We could continue our fraught policy of ‘waiting too long to act in time to offer timely help’ to Ukraine. We could wait until Ukraine’s agricultural economy is staggering and world grain markets are soaring. Better to act now. -- convoy. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/4/2185307/-Stop-Waiting-Too-Long-To-Act-In-Time-Grain-Convoy-Now Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/