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Kansas State House: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-08-14  

Next up in my state legislative summary posts (for 2024 ratings) is the Kansas House of Representatives, which I previously looked at last month.

A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”).

There are no rating changes/candidate updates, so this post will very short.

My current rating for the chamber is Safe Republican. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 85R – 40D, so Dems need a net gain of at least twenty-three seats for control of the chamber. Even if the Democrats were to win every competitive seat, including all the toss-ups and those classified as “Lean” or “Likely” Republican, this would only give them a net gain of twenty-one seats, still giving the GOP a majority (albeit, a narrow one).

However, it’s a Toss Up as to whether the Republicans will maintain their supermajority. The Dems only need a net gain of two seats to break the GOP supermajority, and they have plenty of strong pick-up opportunities to choose from, with six Republican-held seats classified as toss-ups (not to mention the fifteen seats classified as “Lean” or “Likely” Republican). Democrats do have to play a bit of defense themselves, though, with five Dem-held seats classified as toss-ups, though in general they seem to be less exposed than the Republicans, with only eight seats classified as “Lean” or “Likely” Democrat. It seems reasonable for either party to have a net gain of seats this cycle.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/14/2187109/-Kansas-State-House-2024-Ratings

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