(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Thoughts on the 2024 Campaign Issues, Biden and Trump [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-08-16 The only thing you can be certain of, is that the circumstances leading up to the 2024 election will not be a repeat of 2020. Yes, the Republicans will do everything again in their power to take down Biden. As always, they have billions to spend and a sympathetic media with the power to deceive enough voters to make the election at least close. Beyond that, nothing else is certain. A photo many believe was doctored. (See the woman with the Trump hat’s extra arm. The sign may also have been inserted). Biden is doing his best to counter the threats, admittedly with results far better than I had expected. But whether or not it’s a deliberate strategy to trap the Republicans, it seems he has deliberately avoided drawing the proverbial line in the sand. Concede an Inch They’ll Take a Yard You give a Party that has gone off the deep end over to fascism an inch and too much time, and they of course will take the proverbial yard. And more. That concerns me. As so much of their sick demented rhetoric has been normalized, while they continue to take apart the country, piece by piece. I keep waiting for that moment when Biden demonstrates in some conspicuous way, that enough is enough. He may believe that the latest indictment (up now to four) of Trump are enough. The Republicans, however, NEVER play by the rules. And a significant number of Americans remain blindly loyal to Trump, in essence giving their blessings to this disgusting excuse for a leader, looking for a white savior. Trump’s spell may have been eroded but it is not yet broken. Why the Consistently Low Approval Ratings? President Biden There are several reasons why President Biden has had, with several exceptions, under 50% approval ratings at most places that give one. The most obvious factors may be the harsh divisions in the country and politicization of every aspect of government. In the past this was not always the case. Many Americans were able to settle down and judge presidents more or less on the merits in many presidencies. Alienation from government, mostly caused by the war of words between Democrats and Republicans on every single issue, has taken a toll and changed the way citizens look at it and their expectations. While a more than competent leader and politician, Biden approaches 80 and is not a particularly good speaker or charismatic. Combine that with the lack of fair media coverage, constant attacks by Republicans on government itself, and the vicious polarization of politics and you get low approval ratings. There are of course other reasons for the low approval ratings and that has to do with many people not being satisfied and being insecure with the general direction of the country and the corporate misuse of technology, high cost of living and rents, inflation, etc. How much they relate to the way people will vote is presently an unknown quantity. Big Time Gambling Not one every gets an unbeatable hand in politics. Not surprisingly, both parties have gone all in on Trump and Biden. And seemingly have no plan B in the wings or someone prepared to take their place if circumstances or fate dictate it. If Kamala Harris doesn’t want the job, the field is wide open. Biden is certainly prepared for candidate Trump going as far as he can. In a sense, the longer he holds the Republican Party by the throat, the better for Biden. So far so good as he’s a badly exposed candidate. As badly as one can hope for. And the only one whom Biden has planned so far to run against. None of the younger Democratic candidates have been prepared or seem ready to run except for Gavin Newsom. Partly because it’s also rare that a sitting president declines to run for a second term. At a spry 56, Newsom is perhaps running this year more for 2028 than 2024 and may be appointed to a cabinet position should Biden prevail. Only if fate intervenes, has he to be considered a vice presidential candidate in 2024. Or even a presidential one if Harris declines to throw her hat in as president. Age is a Factor Biden’s age has to be recognized as a factor. As is Trumps. Both the corporate media and the Republicans have already made it one in Biden’s case. It’s also pretty clear that the centrists still have firm control of the Party, and intend to keep things that way. And on some level, fear losing it to a younger, more progressive group of politicians and activists. Obama, once a charismatic younger figure in the party, easily prevailed twice as President. He had the potential to become a defining leader capable of bringing forth much progressive change. If not for the fact that he remained deeply tied to the centrists and faced a Congress compromised by corporate lobbyists. In 2016, the centrists hammered home that Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist reformer, couldn’t win. I suspect that what they really feared is that he could win both the nomination and the presidency. And that would certainly have upset their apple cart. Perhaps the same will not hold true with President Biden. For if he gets a second term, circumstances alone will compel major changes with the fascists remaining a danger to the nation. Should Biden win a second term he will still likely be confronted by the Republican’s dominant and fascistic right wing, hopefully minus the ones that tried to steal the 2020 election. Much depends on the Congressional vote and the trial outcomes. Without also winning both houses, the country will remain virtually paralyzed. Nothing and Everything to Lose Trump has had a recent hair transplant. On the left, you can clearly see evidence off an extreme comb over, look at the lack of hair growing from his forehead. On the right he now has hair in the same area of the forehead. Why he never got the latter much sooner is a mystery. Trump, referred to sarcastically by some in Washington as the “Perfect One,” has nothing to lose by running in 2024, or acting psycho and making violent threats over his indictments. And everything to gain, since that’s why he’s so popular among much of his base. He will not stop until he’s ordered to appear before a judge to explain his threatening remarks, with any failure to appear leading to a bench warrant. Failure to do this will lead to escalating threats to prosecutors, judges and witnesses on Trump’s part. Even if convicted on a federal charge it may not stop Trump. He also has the ability and resources to postpone going to jail if by some nightmare scenario he should win, with the horrific likelihood that he could then pardon himself. Biden, on the other hand, has much to lose if he fails to win in 2024. Number one, Trump is not know for respecting his rivals. And will seek the cruelest vengeance possible. Biden, while far from perfect, is a real president, not just a caricature of someone pretending to be one. A loss could easily mean the end of American democracy and shred what’s left of our Constitution and Bill of Rights. De Santis Campaign Self-Imploding Frame taken from a video clip that was cut from the final version. The De Santis campaign, fortunately, seems dead in the water from self-inflicted wounds. Both for choosing to run an extreme right campaign literally taken from a Nazi playbook, and for his innate lack of charisma, personality, humanity and likability. BTW, he’s actually rumored to be called De Satan behind his back by some of his own staff. One rumor even suggested two secretly left-wing activists actually penetrated his staff and helped write some of his more damaging campaign video ads. I’m more that a little skeptical about these rumors, but if you’ve seen some of his campaign ads, you might lend them a bit more credibility. De Santis could go down as running one of the worst campaigns in presidential history. Yet if anything happens to Trump, he might sneak back in the picture. Corporate Media Motivations It Ain’t Over Till it’s Over. Some corporate media owners openly embrace Trump’s authoritarian message, others get rich off the high ratings they get when covering him daily. Some may do it to avoid Republican reprisals. Regardless of motivations the corporate media seems incapable of dropping him, even though his election would be a disaster for America and the world second only to the advancing climate changes. I don’t think mega-wind-bag Trump could possibly win or maintain a campaign presence without tons of campaign cash, massive cheating, biased media assistance and unforeseen events. It Ain’t Over Till it’s Over After all, you can put makeup and a new suit on a pig, but in the end Trump is still porky. Nevertheless, Biden would be wise not to be overconfident. As Dewy found out in 48, Humphrey in 1968 and Gore in 2000. Much depends of the outcome of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which may come to a head around or before the 2024 election. If Putin manages to survive in some fashion and avoids total defeat, the corporate media and the Republicans may have an added way to undermine Biden’s campaign. Republican Strategy and the Next Coup Attempt The unholy 6 may be part of the next coup. It’s no secret that Republicans seek power through creating instability, violent agitation and exploiting racism. More specifically, an organized plan may be afoot to destroy the credibility of the 2024 vote and throw the election into the lap of the Supreme Court. Pressuring Electors? That could be the format under which the next coup attempt is made. One may may involve pressuring as many electors as they can in key states to vote against Biden even if he wins the state, thereby throwing the election into the Courts. If I’m interpreting Biden’s strategy correctly, it’s to prevent that agenda’s goal from being achieved and preserve the credibility of the 2024 election. But also by avoiding swallowing the poison pill. That being seeking or failing to avoid a direct Constitutional confrontation with the Republicans and open civil war conditions. It’s risky of course either way. As it’s always easier to be destructive than constructive. Biden trusts that more Republicans will self destruct if given enough rope than be successful with their tactics. There are loads of unknown campaign factors, both domestic and foreign, too many to mention all of them. The following are some of the more important ones that will or might not have significant influence on the campaigns, not in any particular order of importance. Potential Factors and Issues in 2024 The national issue of abortion bans and restrictions and the Supreme court ruling last year to set aside federal authority to regulate the matter. and the Supreme court ruling last year to set aside federal authority to regulate the matter. The ethics, or lack of them , by the Supreme Court majority, and the need for increasing it size and initiating term limits. , by the Supreme Court majority, and the need for increasing it size and initiating term limits. The outcome of Putin’s criminal invasion of Ukraine in 2024. of Putin’s criminal invasion of Ukraine in 2024. Extreme Republican misogyny. Historic White Supremacy and Racism, the main raw fuels for Trump’s success. the main raw fuels for Trump’s success. Attempts to make Trump an object of pity and the trials about freedom of speech. Trump an object of pity and the trials about freedom of speech. There remains a great risk of a losing Putin precipitating a nuclear war level crisis under which he actually uses limited tactical nuclear weapons in 2024 against Ukraine. Don’t underestimate this possibility, he’s capable of doing it. under which he actually uses limited tactical nuclear weapons in 2024 against Ukraine. Don’t underestimate this possibility, he’s capable of doing it. A repeat of the 2023 summer and Global Warming might no longer be possible to be relegated to page 8 in 2024. It may become impossible to bury the matter and thus directly effect the campaigns. summer and might no longer be possible to be relegated to page 8 in 2024. It may become and thus directly effect the campaigns. Sexual Fear Mongering directed against gay and trans citizens. directed against gay and trans citizens. Fear Mongering against immigrants, especially non-white looking ones. against immigrants, especially non-white looking ones. Trump falters, withdraws , and there’s a different Republican candidate . , and there’s . Whether or not Trump can postpone his trials until after the 2024 election? until after the 2024 election? If Trump is acquitted in a federal trial before the election. in a federal trial before the election. Outbreaks of large demonstrations backed by mass organizing by either progressives or the Trump cult can definitely play a role, as they did in 2020. backed by mass organizing by either progressives or the Trump cult can definitely play a role, as they did in 2020. If the 14th amendment is actually applied. Conservative talk about using it suggests they think they are dead in the water with Trump in 2024. Conservative talk about using it suggests they think they are dead in the water with Trump in 2024. If the housing and growing homelessness crisis caused by the ridiculously high costs of rents and homes hits the front page and precipitates a banking crisis. caused by the ridiculously high costs of rents and homes hits the front page and precipitates a banking crisis. Inflation and oil prices rise again in 2024. again in 2024. The age and health factors. It can come into play effecting either Biden of Trump. The Gorillas in the Room More than one 800 lb gorillas hovers over the 2024 election. Perhaps the biggest crisis which has yet to mature is the 800 pound gorilla knocking at the door: Climate Change. That being civilization’s greatest threat except for that of Putin sponsored nuclear war breaking out. The corporate media and fossil fuel industries have deftly avoided making climate change a national issue in most people’s eyes. And continues to help keep Trumpism alive among his cult-like and more deluded followers. The deniers have also been busy attacking scientists and activists who support climate change. America’s Largest 800 Pound Gorilla The other 800 pound gorilla in the room may surprise some readers, although it shouldn’t. It’s America’s long history of white supremacy and racism. It’s the the raw fuel for igniting Trump’s success. It’s often ignored by the “experts” as the driving force behind Trumpism and his apparent bullet proof popularity among many whites. President Lyndon B. Johnson The Consequences of Ignorance and Racism And a sad acknowledgement that many white Americans still fail to realize that the most progress made in establishing union rights and an improved standard of living in America was made possible by organized labor led by left and progressives leaders. Although the labor movement often failed to come to terms with its own internal racism and include people of color. Later when the Civil Rights movement took off in the 50 and 60s, the desire on the part of many whites to always be better off than “the blacks” led to an unspoken expectation that the Republican Party in the 60s and thereafter would openly endorse racism and be their “white peoples” party. Trump’s appearance on the scene resurrected this for many whites. Regarding the quote below, President Johnson said it in an interview with a young Bill Moyers when criticizing his segregationist and white supremacist critics. “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.” Lyndon B. Johnson Needed: a Return to Union Influence Labor power generates progress. The strongly left leaning unions during the 30s put enough pressure on FDR, a comparatively shrewd and enlightened leader as opposed to a despot like Trump, to create the New Deal reforms and recognize union power rather than mass repression. The New Deal rights won then are still under attack by the Republicans today. The scope of post-war union-driven progress was weakened by racism and later by waves of anti-communism and red baiting. The ruling elites managed to successfully tame the labor movement’s independence after WWII, even willing to allow some unions to be taken over by organized crime. We will never put a nail into the coffin lid of Trumpism without addressing our racist history because it’s not just something in the past, it’s all around us today as well, and is an often unspoken issue in the 2024 election. 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