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The (Un) Importance of Presidential Job Approval Surveys [1]

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Date: 2023-08-17  

Every election cycle is routinely saturated by the ubiquitous presidential job approval surveys. The abundant publicity surrounding such surveys conveys the impression that their results should be taken seriously — since they are depicted as crucial indicators of public opinion with possible election-outcome consequences.

But let’s step back for a moment and consider the relevance (or lack thereof) of these surveys in the current, highly polarized USA political scene. Do these surveys provide any useful information? Should we pay any attention to them? My answers are no and no. In fact, it can be theoretically proven that in a polarized society, such as ours, those surveys are totally meaningless.

To illustrate with a simplified example. Suppose we divide the electorate equally into three ideological positions: “leftist”, “centrist,” and “rightist.” And, to make the numbers simpler, let’s further consider that about 10% of the electorate is in the “don’t know” category (which tends to be the norm). Thus, each of the three ideological positions would have a 30% solid support.

In a highly polarized electorate, crossover approval tends to be minimal. Therefore, a president – whether “centrist”, “leftist” or “rightist” – will command a solid support of only 30% of the electorate. And in the best case, adding a plausible number of crossovers, the approval may move up into the 40%s. Approval into the 50%s or above is extremely unlikely – and always short-lived.

The same basic argument applies to the perennial and also meaningless survey regarding whether the country is going in the right or wrong direction. Diverse groups of people may believe the country is going in the wrong direction for different – and often opposing – reasons.

The question remains: Why is it that political operatives and journalists from every corner of the political spectrum pay so much attention to these meaningless surveys?

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/17/2187927/-The-Un-Importance-of-Presidential-Job-Approval-Surveys

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