(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Josh Marshall: Republican primaries are a meaningless fantasy - there's no credible non-Trump [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-08-31 In his latest Backchannel post, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, has a rather acerbic commentary As far as Marshall is concerned, no one is going to be able to beat Trump in the GOP primaries, and it’s been obvious for months. But we’re still getting press horse race style coverage and hyped up stories about various ‘concerns’. My short update in The Backchannel today can be filed under the uncanny unreality of the GOP presidential primaries. It’s over. I mean, it’s 100% over and frankly it was over 6 or 7 months ago when everyone pretended otherwise. And yet there’s a whole industry, a whole slew of reporters and commentators and even SuperPACs and preening donors are committed to and going through the motions of the whole thing somehow being real. Today I note stories about big donors expressing “concern” that Tim Scott isn’t married and whether they should put big money behind him as long as that’s some kind of question mark. The link above should allow non-subscribers to read the whole thing. It’s short, so I’ll grab just one more paragraph: ...But who are we kidding here? Donald Trump now routinely gets over 50% of the vote in GOP primary polls and is consistently a good 40 percentage points ahead of every rival. This race is so obviously over there’s a strong and uncanny unreality about the whole exercise. Meanwhile, if I’m counting right, Scott appears to be like 7th in a field of nine. At least for the moment he’s only ahead of Asa Hutchinson and that Burgum guy (whose first name I can’t even remember.) I have to agree with Marshall that there is no candidate on the GOP side who stands a chance of passing Trump in the primaries. And would it matter if there was? None of them have policies that would be an improvement over anything Trump would offer — and would quite likely be worse. (See Thom Hartmann on the plans the Heritage Foundation has developed to totally demolish democracy in the country. Any one of them would be ready to implement it in whole or in part.) So what’s Plan B for the Billionaires and their SuperPacs? Digby points to where the real action seems to be cranking up: NO LABELS. She links to a Politico report by Shia Kapos on how a major Trump donor is now investing in No Labels. ...Allan Keen, a Florida-based real estate developer and investor who gave more than $137,000 to Trump-related election entities last cycle, has joined the centrist political group in a leadership role with its Florida chapter. ….Keen’s involvement with No Labels is an extension of the work he has done with the group since 2016, including donating to its Problem Solvers PAC. But it is likely to heighten Democratic criticism that the third-party presidential bid will only hurt President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects. ...“A third party will likely benefit Trump,” said former Trump spokesperson Sean Spicer, whether it’s No Labels or Green Party candidate Cornel West. He compared such efforts to Jill Stein’s Green Party campaign in 2016. “West only needs 30,000 votes” to tip Wisconsin to Republicans, Spicer said at the Republican debate in Milwaukee last week. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 — but a handful of votes in key swing states put him over the top, and that scenario can’t be ruled out for 2024 as long as we’re still playing by Electoral College rules. Here’s the kicker about No Labels: The group has hinted that it may drop its third-party effort if Trump is not the nominee. That scenario is looking increasingly less likely. At the debate in Milwaukee last week, most of Trump’s rivals vowed to support him even if charges against Trump on Jan. 6 result in a conviction. Digby sums it up with this observation: Keen said he has no “predetermined opinion” on who might top a No Labels presidential ticket. “That, of course, will be a process,” he said. “I think everyone feels that reason and good judgment will prevail such that there is no anointed person — the way it should be.” That’s a good line but I don’t believe it. Trump donors who give money to No Labels aren’t Never Trumpers, they are “Anybody But Biden.” There’s a difference. If they really wanted to stop Trump they’d hold their noses and vote for Biden. Otherwise, they are supporting Trump. These aren’t unsophisticated idealistic young people. They know what they’re doing. emphasis added If you agree with Marshall — and I think he’s correct at this point — Trump has a lock on the GOP nomination. The primaries are a meaningless sideshow; the real action will be with No Labels and whatever they can pull off to take votes from Biden. That, and the determination of the press to continue to push the narrative that Biden is too old, is unpopular, and the economy is a mess despite record employment, rising wages, and rising investment. The media also needs to keep churning the stories around the GOP candidates, while No Labels isn't exciting enough for them yet. The wild cards at this point are going to be: What happens as Trump’s legal trials progress, how that affects popular perception of him Whether or not Trump’s sanity and health issues become to obvious to ignore Whether the maniacs in the House GOP caucus make the party even more unpopular Whether people like Brain Kemp decide Trump has to be cut loose because he’s too big a liability What happens with Biden and what he does Random stuff like stochastic terror, natural disasters, pandemics, and sudden scandals And you thought the 2020 election was nerve-wracking? [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/31/2190858/-Josh-Marshall-Republican-primaries-are-a-meaningless-fantasy-there-s-no-credible-non-Trump Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/