(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Hillary Clinton lost because of moderates, swing voters, and herself. Not Jill Stein voters. [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-09-09 A post was written earlier this week about this. Blaming Jill Stein voters, asking if progressives will be purity ponies. We all know the story. And its wrong. Third Party Voters. Jill Stein’s margin was larger than Hillary Clinton’;s margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Divide the numbers and about ¾ of Stein voters would need to choose Clinton for Trump to lose. Therefore, if Stein voters had voted Clinton, Trump would have been avoided. QED. Its all your fault. Except, how many Stein voters were actually going to go for Clinton? The green party fraction of the vote was 1.07% in 2016, and .26% in 2020 The difference is just barely above what’s needed, assuming the voters include the same sorts of people as turnout was higher in 2020 than 2016. Remember, a lot of people didn’t vote for Clinton, a lot vote for random reasons, those Green party voters may not have been willing Dem voters anymore than any other swing groups. Some bring up the Sanders primary supporters who voted Republican. Problem is, that’s a lower fraction then of Clinton supporters who voted Republican in 2008. Again,probably not gettable voters. A certain fraction won’t be happy, will vote republican just as strongly as any swing voter. But lets say all the ducks line up, everyone is organized, and Jill Stein voters all supported Clinton. Trump loses a narrowly close election, we get an ordinary democratic president in office - by policies and governing style, obvious being a woman is unique- and Republican are either energized or demoralized by having the candidate who best represents them narrowly lose. Except….. Gary Johnson, the libertarian, was in the race. And 3.28% of voters voted for the libertarian. Sure, they don’t like Trump, but who wants a democrat in office? If stein voters can be convinced to go for Clinton, the same techniques and logic can be used on Gary Johnson voters. Only a third of them are needed to cancel the Stein numbers, even if Libertarian supporters are more independent and disorganized that is not a huge ask. And if all libertarian voters drop Johnson to vote for Trump, Clinton very narrowly loses the popular vote. It is likely some libertarian voters were protesting Trump. That’s the common a\story. But That means they can be blamed for not going Clinton as much as Stein voters. Swing Voters, Moderates The swing from Obama 2012 to Clinton 2016 in the Midwestern states was a lot bigger than 1%. Michigan by about 10%, Wisconsin about 7%, Pennsylvania by about 6%. Obviously, they had to have shifted a lot, otherwise they never could have been considered blue wall states in the first place. Who were these voters? Some were extra turnout for republicans, some were swings from one party to another. Most analysis says they are mostly white working class people, as conventional wisdom says. Rural counties around the Great Lakes showed the biggest swing towards Trump. I don’t offhand know about more in depth analysis for who swing. If you are assigning blame, this is one group. 1/7 of people who swung isn’t all that much, these are people who had voted democratic in the past. Maybe also nonvoters, or Republicans who considered switching but didn’t. Though I don’t know how many of such people there were. Thing is, these are not the ones wanting universal health care and student debt relief. These are the confused, the moderates, the ones who say both parties are bad, the willful centrists. The candidate and Their Supporters Usually when someone loses, the candidate gets the blame. If a primary was competitive, the supporters get the blame as well. When DeSantis was elected, I read numerous comments about how bad Gillum was, or how out of state progressives messed up and another candidate should have been the choice. Lefty/progressive candidate loses in a swing state and we hear that someone else should have been picked in the primary. Stacey Abrams and Beto O’rourke lose in 2022 and they go from big name to ugh, disgusting, never want to hear from them again in many people’s minds. Not typically blamed are voters even though they decide the election. So when Hillary Clinton loses…… You can figure it out. Personally, I don’t choose either one. If a bad result happens, anyone who contributed to it has some responsibility, with other factors deciding how much. Voters do actually make the decision in an election, so are morally responsible for its outcome. But this includes all voters, not just the ones wanting progressive policies. And news media, candidates, and other operations influence voter’s decisions. So these people bear responsibility as well. But accountability must hold equally. Republican voters, moderates, uncommitted must share blame as voters. And Hillary Clinton and her supporters do as well. Several campaign mistakes have been described. One person I talked to at an event says the campaign was not organized well. SEIU people say they were going ot Michigan, but were redirected to Iowa as a show of strength or to draw Trump supporters, even though Iowa was obviously going red at the time. Advertising might have focused on Trump’s business failures, demonstrating weakness. Would other candidates have done better? People say Sanders would have gotten attacked and lost support because socialism, but he was polling ahead of Clinton in the general match up. Martin O’Malley, he ran. Perhaps if Clinton stays out, other famous senators and governors and maybe Joe Biden runs, and perhaps they run a different campaign that does better. Or at least years of bad commentary and hews hasn’t built in people’s minds. We know Clinton lost we know these others didn’t, and signs point to others perhaps doing better. Whether a different candidate should have run is a thorny question, without an obvious answer. Clinton is allowed to run, anyone with the constitutional qualifications is. She was clearly ambitious, and a lot of people wanted to support her. Personally, I an medium on either of the two candidates that year. Clinton supports too much moderate things,, Sanders is not good at hiring people, and his campaign promoted a lot of rottenness. Actually, Clinton has also. There are many politicians I would pick for president above these two. What is true no matter what: If you blame other politicians and their supporters for a loss, than Clinton gets blamed as well. Why do you cling to this unproductive meme? To support progressive policies is to take on an enormous responsibility. To be the one who decides the fate of the world.. You are one of the few with power, everyone else is along for the ride. Get it right, by using the correct combination of messaging, compromise, and wonderful things happen that make all of our lives better. Get in wrong, but demanding too much, using the wrong slogan, getting self presentation wrong, and lots of people die, horrific laws get passed, backlash results in fear and pain and worse than if progressives hadn’t tried at all. Its a weighty responsibility, few take it, and those who do are lavishly rewarded with money, status, and esteem. Yeah, this is sarcastic. Obviously the money and esteem part. But also the power part. Yet if you read much political commentary, this is the impression you get. That progressives are responsible for everything, and moderates and conservatives in opposition are blameless. Moderate voters, swing voters, Clinton and her campaign. Stein voters barely if at all change the result if they go Clinton, same with supposed no compromise left policy supporters, but the much larger and more important previous sentence avoids blame. Why do this? Because you hate progressives. I’ll have some writing tomorrow to describe why. Not so simple? True, that. Its also cowardice and laziness. Sound harsh? Too bad. If this blog post applies to you, you probably wanto t be seen as a good person. A person who follows science, a calm person, a pillar of the community, cooperative, you know the drill. Not actually do these things, since than you’d be the progressive getting blamed and not the one doing the blaming. But leaning in this direction is important. To engage with moderates, the confused, the cross pressured, Republicans who stay with their party is scary. They don’t make sense. They are angry, maybe physically threatening. Their logic often makes no sense, is random. They don’t listen to you. The confused voters and moderates among you often won’t pay any attention to politics, so are hard to talk to anyway outside their comfort zone. Dealing with these people is too much work. So instead, they become background, and you turn your attacks to the progressives. The ones who actually have goals and make logical sense. Lefty proposals are usually logical steps with a clear end goal that fits together. Like that universal health care means you’ll get health care. Some are vulnerable in some way, like trans people wanting protection. So you have power over them. Progressives don’t generally lynch mob you if you don’t agree. So anger is directed towards the easy target, the target you think you can hurt. And after years and much social encouragement, it becomes a habit, on you resent being told to break. Thus, cowardice. Hillary Clinton has the advantage of some numbers, margins of exactly the right size that blaming Stein voters makes sense, unless you look more deeply. But as many philosophers have said, in more flowery language, the easy path is rarely the rewarding one. Blaming Stein voters is easy, lets you feel powerful, lets you lecture someone else, but it doesn’t build durable and stress free elections. Only engaging with moderates, Republicans, and others can do that. Personal Note I noticed my last sign in was...April. Feels like less than that. I do read the site, but don’t want to participate much. The past several years have been stressful, internet politics interactions a big reason why. I have a group of 5 posts I should be finishing tomorrow, plus I’ve been reading the site’s Ukraine coverage and occasional other topics. Just never felt a need to log in an comment. So if you are wondering why this random person is dropping a post out of nowhere, you have an explanation. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/9/2192360/-Hillary-Clinton-lost-because-of-moderates-swing-voters-and-herself-Not-Jill-Stein-voters Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/