(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . It's the incumbency stupid: Hasn't anyone heard of cost-benefit analysis? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-09-15 Cross-posted at my Substack, The Janovsky Report: The simplistic level of political reporting never ceases to astonish me. We are daily subjected to an onslaught of stories about Joe Biden’s age. From the right of course, but more significantly from the left “center” concern trolls. On Tuesday, I posted Do Not Let "His Age" be 2024's "Her Emails," responding to pieces from the New York Times, Nate Silver and elsewhere about Democratic “jitters” about Biden’s age. I suggested some ways to take on the age narrative, including, “With Age Comes Experience,” and “With Experience Comes Accomplishments.” I briefly touched on “It’s the Incumbency, stupid. “ and promised to elaborate on it. The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Biden’s Candidacy Two things can be true: (1) Biden’s age is a factor; and (2) This factor is substantially outweighed by the power of incumbency and avoiding a primary. Yet few, if any of the Biden/Age critics engage in any level of cost/benefit analysis weighing his age against his experience and accomplishments, and whether his status as an incumbent might outweigh concerns about his age. On Tuesday, I concluded: The age concern trolls fail to consider the complete cost benefit analysis of Biden running, primarily the advantages of incumbency and avoidance of a primary battle. Biden and Dems determined these factors favored him running. Any omission of these factors makes the age trolls’ view incomplete and simplistic. I am sure Biden decided to run for election with input from elected Democrats, other advisors, family and friends. Using their considerable political experience, I am certain they considered all factors on whether Biden should run for re-election. If you doubt this, go back to the “accomplishments” argument — The President achieved what he did because he and his team are political professionals who know how to get things done. The Power of Incumbency Incumbency is a huge factor determining the outcome of any election, including a Presidential one. Noah Berlatsky wrote last month: [I]ncumbent presidents tend to win reelection. Three out of the last four presidents who ran for a second term won, with the lone exception being Trump. Incumbency doesn’t guarantee anything, but historically it provides an advantage. Going farther back to 1980, Jimmy Carter, the last Democratic incumbent not to win, was severely weakened by Ted Kennedy’s primary challenge and had to contend with the continuing disaster of the Iran hostage crisis. He may well have won anyway if the Reagan campaign had not made a treasonous deal with the Ayatollah to kill a pre-election deal to release the hostages — one of several seditious “October Surprises” in the last sixty years. This Republican sedition has finally been confirmed as a scheme perpetrated by former Democrat John Connolly. (Twelve years earlier, Nixon’s gang pulled off the initial October Surprise, sabotaging the Vietnam peace talks.) Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the last 10 Presidential elections** uses “13 keys” to determine an election. Two of the most important are whether the candidate is an incumbent President and whether there is a contentious primary battle. To surrender both of these by Biden dropping out would be a “recipe for losing the election” and a “self-inflicted wound.” x YouTube Video The Risks of a Contested Primary Potential Democratic divisions in a contested primary are not difficult to predict, revealing policy and other divisions in the Democratic party. Republicans will go after Biden on age, but they are experts at going after any candidate based on any other factor: Berlatsky again: The problem here is that the Republicans are the party of bigotry, and they will find some sort of prejudice to leverage against any candidates Democrats put forward. JB Pritzker and Josh Shapiro are Jewish; Gretchen Whitmer is a woman; Pete Buttigieg is gay; Vice President Kamala Harris (who Phillips didn’t mention, though she’s certainly the leading contender for the nomination if Biden steps down) is a Black woman. Republicans will try to make each of those identities into a liability if they can — and we know they will because they already have. Biden’s Motives Joe Biden said he decided to run for President in 2017 after the Charlottesville Nazi rally, believing he had an obligation to run and try to stop Trump’s march toward fascism. Recalling his earlier pledge, Biden said this in his announcement year that when he ran in 2020, I said we are in a battle for the soul of America, and we still are. The question we are facing is whether in the years ahead we have more freedom or less freedom. More rights or fewer. Biden still believes he is the best candidate to stop fascism in 2024 — whether in the form of Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, another fascist, or an anti-choice, plutocratic Republican like Haley, Pence, et al. I consider myself an optimistic cynic — I don’t automatically believe everything people say, especially politicians, but I do believe they are often sincere. Because he has engaged in the cost-benefit analysis described above, I don’t believe Biden is blindly running again out of ambition or grandeur, or that he is naive. He and his advisors determined that he is again the best bet to stop fascism. I agree, and wish that all the concern trolls out there think about the whole picture — the power of incumbency, the need to avoid a divisive primary, and Biden’s experience and accomplishments, and get down to the business of registering and turning out the voters who will stop the march of fascism by a wide margin. *** * Investopedia: What Is Cost-Benefit Analysis, How Is it Used, What Are its Pros and Cons? ** He predicted Gore in 2000, but does not consider that incorrect because of voter suppression, culminating in the Supreme Court determining the election. He’s right. 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