(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Ignoring Political Polls in 2023: a Modest Proposal [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-09-19 Greetings, dear reader! Welcome to my inaugural submission for the Daily Kos. I deeply value your time and pledge to provide factual, candid arguments, always offered in good faith. My intention is to provide food for thought respectfully, without any desire to cause offense or to unduly inflame political passions. Calm dialogue is my goal and hopefully, that will be apparent throughout this article. Executive Summary of this article’s main premise: The election of 2024 is roughly 13 months from now, an eternity in politics. All polls and predictions published this year are meaningless garbage; ALL OF WHICH can and should be treated accordingly. They are a cacophony of crashing brass and clanging cymbals; noise that signifies nothing. Introduction: In this article, I’ll provide a series of good-faith arguments based on logic and analyses of voter data trends, presented in a calm, reasoned and factual manner. My humble goal is an attempt to persuade readers to see the folly in trying to guess who will win any election next year. In my first article submitted to the Daily Kos, I want to delve into a peculiar trend I've observed—a recent proliferation of articles and opinion pieces dissecting political polling for the upcoming 2024 election. To me, this trend appears patently absurd for a myriad of reasons; with the most compelling being the evident ineffectiveness of modern polling in predicting political outcomes. Reader, I must clarify upfront: I shall only refer to the 45th President as 'TFG,' (The Former Guy) a rather fitting acronym coined by President Biden. I refuse to utter TFG’s name until he’s in a coffin or a jail cell; either of which at this point would be preferable to him being free to wreak havoc, IMHO. I will however refer to him also as 'Combover.' It's a name that elegantly captures what he strangely considers a 'hairstyle.' Whether the chaotic mess atop his head can be termed a deliberate style choice or a desperate attempt to hide a completely bald scalp, are questions for another time. NOTE: The use of the acronym “GQP” is my preferred nickname for today’s Republican Party. It’s an abbreviation of “Grand Qanon Party” and wordplay off GOP (Grand Old Party), the acronym long preferred by the Media, pundits and many others. It’s not my invention, but I find it is a succinct way to describe the radicalization and ideological devolution of the Republican Party in the 21st Century. My modest proposal is simple: Let's choose to disregard all polls and any pundits or journalists who publish pieces that attempt to predict the 2024 Election. IMHO, paying attention to these things is a huge waste of one’s limited time and attention. Political Polling methods have failed the American electorate. The 2016 election stands as a stark reminder of how deeply flawed contemporary polling methodologies appear to be. I distinctly recall visiting 538.com on the morning of November 3, 2016, seeing that Mr. Silver and his team projected a mere 9% chance of then-candidate TFG winning the Presidency. I cite that memory not to single them out, but rather as an example of what all Pollsters were reporting in the lead up to Election Day. Such unwarranted optimism, fueled by these projections, seemed to permeate the national media and infected the general population. However, history unequivocally reveals how flat out wrong all of these forecasts were. I believe it is deeply regrettable that pollsters seldom assumed responsibility for their abysmal performance prior to the 2016 election. This failure profoundly affected me, intensifying the despair I felt as the results unfurled that fateful evening. I harbor no ill will toward pollsters; they are human, after all. However, their repeated inaccuracies led me to question the credibility of modern polling. It was heartening to discover that seasoned journalists like Jennifer Rubin share a similar skepticism towards contemporary polling. In a piece published on September 10, 2023, in The Washington Post, Ms. Rubin eloquently lays out solid reasons to ignore political polling for the next several months; starting with the title: I don’t write about polls. You shouldn’t bother with them, either. In her very thoughtful, well-crafted opinion piece, she advises readers to steer clear of poll-centric discussions. Ms. Rubin presents compelling arguments in favor of dismissing all polling, and I wholeheartedly concur. To ensure accessibility for all readers, I'll provide a concise summary of her key points, highlighted by her rather quotably eloquent commentary; followed by mine when I feel it’s beneficial. Rubin's article commences with a persuasive salvo, effectively indicting modern polling as fundamentally flawed: You might have noticed that I studiously have avoided dissecting the avalanche of 2024 polls. I don’t plan on deviating from this approach — at least not until mid-2024. And you should consider ignoring the nonstop flood of polling and the rickety analysis dependent on it. Here are five reasons we should all go on a poll-free political diet for at least six months: Ms. Rubin presents a compelling case for disregarding all polling, supported by the following reasons; each of which I find quite convincing: Historically Inaccurate: Polling methodologies have consistently produced results that are far from the actual election outcomes. Poll results published in advance of the 2016 Election are a prime example of how severely broken modern polling has become. Voter Inconsistency: Voters often exhibit a striking inconsistency between what they tell pollsters and how they actually vote. For instance, they might express support for a candidate associated with the MAGA movement but vote for someone entirely different. A notable illustration of this inconsistency is the disparity between President Biden's favorability ratings and the public's support for his signature policies, like the Inflation Reduction Act. Although these policies enjoy widespread popularity, Biden's unfavorable ratings surpass his favorable ones. Logic dictates that if a majority of voters approve of his Administration’s policies, they will likely be inclined to vote for him in 2024. Early Polls Lack Accuracy: Rubin points out a crucial fact— there is no evidence that any poll conducted more than a year before an election has ever provided remotely accurate predictions . Rubin points out a crucial fact— Manipulative Intent: Some polls appear to have an agenda beyond accurately gauging public sentiment. Instead of reflecting true popular sentiment, they often aim to bolster certain ideas or candidates, even when they lack substantial support. The 2020 election serves as a notable case in point, where numerous polls predicted a 'red wave' that never materialized. Investigative reports later exposed the manipulation of these polls, which were skewed to favor specific candidates, including TFG, despite their eventual significant losses. Some polls appear to have an agenda beyond accurately gauging public sentiment. Instead of reflecting true popular sentiment, they often aim to bolster certain ideas or candidates, even when they lack substantial support. The 2020 election serves as a notable case in point, where numerous polls predicted a 'red wave' that never materialized. Investigative reports later exposed the manipulation of these polls, which were skewed to favor specific candidates, including TFG, despite their eventual significant losses. The final reason was written so eloquently that I’ll quote it below (bold and underlines were added by me for emphasis): The most important reason, however, to minimize attention to polling has to do with the mission and credibility of journalism at a critical time in our democracy. What voters know might be wrong — objectively wrong. They tell pollsters we are in a recession. They tell us Biden was involved in his son’s business ventures. These beliefs are unsupported by evidence . This surely indicates that the media could try harder to explain what is going on. (Maybe more reporting on the changes happening around the country would be in order.) While the desire to predict election outcomes is natural, Jennifer Rubin's arguments make a compelling case for disregarding political polls as inherently unreliable. Instead, a more robust approach involves examining historical voting data, party registrations, and other pertinent records to identify trends that can provide a more accurate projection of likely outcomes. This method, while not infallible, has demonstrated greater reliability compared to polling in recent years. The Power of Data: A Closer Look at the Unraveling “Grand Qanon Party (GQP)” and other key insights from Voter Data Analyses Delving into these historical records reveals a substantial and mounting disapproval of the Republican Party (“GQP”) among a significant segment of the American electorate. This trend has been gathering momentum since 2015 and it provides a vivid portrayal of the shifting political terrain. Examining publicly available voter data from various sources managed by local, state, and federal entities reveals several pivotal trends that are increasingly shaping electoral outcomes: The Aging MAGA Voter: Data strongly indicates that the typical MAGA voter’s age is estimated to be somewhere between 68-72 years old. This conclusion draws from multiple sources, including Nielsen, which has consistently reported an average viewership age of about 70 for specific news outlets like Fox News since 2016. Furthermore, the prevailing media coverage consistently depicts MAGA supporters as predominantly elderly, reinforcing this perception of an aging movement. Generational Divide: The Republican Party skews older, with an estimated average voter age of around 61. In contrast, Democrats appear to have a younger base, with an average age of roughly 49. This divergence can be attributed to the GQP's focus on policies that have alienated voters under the age of 50 over the past four (4) decades. Since at least the 1970’s, Democrats have actively pursued younger voters by crafting policies and political platforms that have been responsive to their demands and concerns. The contrast is remarkable and the longer term impact of each approach is apparent in voter registrations by party for each generational cohort over the age of 18 The breakdown estimation of registered Republicans by generational cohort illustrates this trend quite clearly. Collectively, this illustrates a trend that implies the GQP’s future prospects are greatly diminished: Boomers and previous generations: 60% Gen-X: 50% Millennials: 25% Gen-Z: 10% Christian Nationalism's Impact: The rise of Christian Nationalism has primarily been a phenomenon within the Republican Party. However, this shift has had significant repercussions on both Christianity and the GQP, alienating a growing number of Americans. The rejection of organized religion is affecting both brands in ways that cannot be ignored. The adamant stance of some MAGA supporters on culture wars has rendered them unelectable and unpopular among a larger portion of the population. Unprecedented Legal Troubles: It is unprecedented for a former President to face over 91 felony indictments, and equally exceptional for a former President to engage in blatant acts of criminality while in office and immediately afterward. This predicament has left the entire Republican slate of candidates in a challenging position. To win primaries, they must make pledges that will certainly jeopardize their chances in general elections. These insights, drawn from extensive data analyses, highlight the evolving political landscape and the challenges faced by various political entities. In conclusion, it's essential to recognize that much of the speculation surrounding TFG's potential campaign is simply that—speculation. Often, it's driven by media outlets and their staff demonstrating an unwillingness to finally break their addiction to his sensationalism. Reality check: TFG faces a staggering 91 felony indictments, for civil and criminal offenses he's openly admitted to. As such, polls and projections about his electoral chances are complete rubbish and should be treated accordingly. His guilt is undeniable, making him ineligible for any public office, including the Presidency. Arguments to the contrary are offered in bad-faith; by people who demonstrate utter ignorance about how our justice system operates. Some final thoughts to end with in my inaugural article: In light of my proposal to ignore all Political Polls and related media coverage, I'm reminded of the lyrics from Lukas Nelson and the Promise of the Real: 'Turn off the News and Build a Garden.' That link is to a video where he, his dad Willie and his brother Micah sing this as a trio. I love the lyrics, but also was deeply moved to see this family demonstrate a cohesive bond of kinship and respect. It’s well worth the time, if you’re so inclined to hear some uplifting lyrics performed by talented lifetime Musicians. :) I’ve become a huge fan or Lukas Nelson’s music, as I enjoy his style and appreciate the depth of his lyrics in the songs he and his band have produced. Ironically, my friends noticed before I did that we bear this uncanny resemblance; even having long, straight brown hair and a beard. It’s as if we’re cousins, despite having no shared relatives to my knowledge Watching him is akin to seeing a younger doppelganger, who followed a path I once wanted to follow but lacked the talent. It’s kind of fun to watch his videos, imaging an alternative version of myself; up there on stage, singing and playing a guitar so skillfully. I’d be envious, if not for knowing how much practice is required to gain such musical mastery. That said, being married to a lifetime musician, I know how hard they work and how thankless it can be. So I’m glad to be in the audience, instead. It’s one of many reasons why I became an AV Engineer. It’s the only role that allows me to be onstage, without possessing any musical talents. Rebuilding our Garden... This year, our balcony-based container garden faced the challenges of extreme heat and wildfire smoke, but with the help of generous friends who shared spare plants from their gardens, we were able to rebuild and thrive. Our balcony container garden as it appears presently. Apologies for the odd angle, but space is limited out there! The Begonias (lower left), the palm and the small flowers were the only survivors of extreme heat events that coincided with the first recorded instance of Canadian Wildfire Smoke making our air here unsafe. It’s unclear if one or both did them in, but 2/3 of them went from vibrant to dead in just 72 hours. I’ve never seen that happen before. Thanks to the generosity of dear friends, the Basil, Pepper, Rose of Sharon and Coleus filled the pots that once held petunias, impatiens and the other pretty flowers that didn’t survive those events. Similarly, I've chosen to turn off mainstream news sources, which are often fixated on polls and TFG's theatrics. Instead, I've found more straightforward and informative coverage in the reporting of his numerous and growing number of criminal and civil cases, where he’s Defendant #1. In an era dominated by uncertainty and noise, it's crucial to focus on what truly matters— our communities, our well-being, and our ability to make informed choices. As we navigate the complex landscape of American politics, let us not be swayed by sensationalism but rather seek the truth. Let us instead work together, planting metaphorical gardens of understanding, and endeavor to unite our nation. It's important to recognize that there is far more that unites us than divides us as Americans. This unity transcends political differences, reminding us that our opponents are not just political adversaries but are above all, our fellow human beings and fellow Americans . In times of divisiveness, let this be our guiding principle, dear reader— to always remember the shared humanity that binds us together. many humble Thanks for considering this modest proposal and my perspectives. I genuinely appreciate your time and attention. Author's Note: In my early adulthood, I was an Evangelical Christian and a registered Republican. However, my perspective has evolved over time, and I left both the Church and the Republican Party behind in1995; a year before my 30th birthday. Each proved to be the best choices I made at that stage of life, none of which I regret in the least. While my core values are still grounded in the principles of my youth, my beliefs have diverged significantly from the modern GQP and many contemporary Christian theologies, particularly those of modern Evangelicals. I include this disclosure not to dwell on the past but to be transparent and foster understanding. I believe that it's essential for you, dear reader, to know where I'm coming from and how my experiences have shaped my current perspective. Additionally, I collaborated with ChatGPT, an AI language model, to refine the arguments and presentation in this article. The text and ideas are solely the Author’s, as the AI merely served as an Editor and “Wordsmith”. This partnership aimed to improve the clarity and cohesiveness of the content while respecting your valuable time as a reader [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/19/2194209/-Ignoring-Political-Polls-in-2023-a-Modest-Proposal Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/