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Michigan State House Districts (2024): HD 20, HD 22, HD 54, HD 55 [1]

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Date: 2023-09-20  

Today, I am looking at four more Michigan house districts: HD 20, HD 22, HD 54, and HD 55, all of which are entirely contained in Oakland County, located directly north of Detroit.

Michigan House District 20

MI HD 20 encompasses the community of West Bloomfield Township. HD 20 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 39 and HD 40. HD 39 was highly competitive at the presidential level, if not slightly Republican leaning, with both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump (in 2016) carrying the district by between 3 and 4 points and Joe Biden narrowly carrying it by a percentage point. Many of the previous house races for HD 39 were competitive, with Republican Klint Kesto being reelected by single digits in 2012, 2014, and 2016. However, the 2018 house race was not particularly close, with Republican Ryan Berman winning the open seat by about 12 points, although it should be noted that the Democratic candidate had been charged with embezzling during the campaign. Berman was reelected in 2020 by a narrower margin of between 5 and 6 points. HD 40, on the other hand, was a slightly redder district to begin with, but trended blue very rapidly (unlike HD 39) and became fairly safe for Dems. Specifically, the district, went from supporting Romney by about 6 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by nearly 11 points and Biden by a larger margin of nearly 18 points. At the state house level, Republican incumbent Michael McCready easily held onto HD 40 by double-digit margins in 2012 and 2014, but had a closer race in 2016, which he won by about 7 points. Democrat Mari Manoogian flipped the district in 2018, easily winning the open seat by 13 points, and won reelection by an even larger margin of about 15.5 points in 2020. HD 20 is in-between HD 39 and HD 40, partisan-wise, as it would have supported Biden by a little more than 12 points. In 2022, Democrat Noah Arbit won the open race for HD 20 by nearly 13 points, performing roughly on-par with Biden. Arbit should be fairly safe, but the district still warrants notice, given its ancestral GOP roots. I’m classifying HD 20 as Likely Democrat, but could see potentially shifting it to Safe Democrat if the Republicans don’t seriously contest it.

Michigan House District 22

MI HD 22 is home to Northville and Plymouth. HD 22 has quite a bit of overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 20, which trended fairly heavily towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from supporting Romney by about 4 points to supporting Clinton by about 3.5 points and Biden by a larger 12-point margin. At the state house level, the GOP easily held HD 20 in 2012 and 2014, though the 2016 house race was more competitive, with Republican Jeff Noble winning the open seat by just over 7 points. Democrat Matt Koleszar was able to flip the district in 2018, as he narrowly defeated Noble by about 3 points, and was reelected by a more comfortable 10-point margin in 2020. HD 22 is several points redder than HD 20, with Biden’s margin shrinking to between 4 and 5 points in the former district. Koleszar held onto HD 22 in 2022, winning reelection by about 8.5 points, performing only slightly worse than he did in 2020, despite facing considerably less favorable boundaries. Koleszar should have an edge this cycle, especially given the favorable trends for Dems, but it still seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, considering the close 2020 presidential result, though Biden will likely carry it by a larger margin this time. I’m classifying HD 22 as Lean Democrat.

Michigan House District 54

MI HD 54 includes communities such as Orion Township and Bloomfield Hills. HD 54 overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of HD 46 and HD 29, as well as the previously mentioned HD 40 to a lesser extent. HD 46 was a solidly red district that supported Romney by about 21 points and Trump by a larger margin of nearly 28 points in 2016 and a narrower 19-point margin in 2020, while HD 29 was a solidly blue district that went Democrat by at least 40 points in the last three presidential elections. None of the state house races for HD 46 and HD 29 were competitive, with the GOP easily holding onto the former and Dems easily holding onto the latter. Unsurprisingly, HD 54 is in-between these two districts, partisan-wise, and is highly competitive, as it would have narrowly supported Biden by about 2 points. The 2022 state house race was quite close, with Republican Donni Steele winning the open seat by a little more than 2 points. It should be noted that Steele was one of just two Republicans who joined Democrats in voting to repeal the state’s abortion ban. The district should be competitive again this cycle and is one of the best-pick up opportunities for Democrats, as it is one of just two GOP-held seats that supported Biden, though Steele will have the advantage of incumbency this time. I’m classifying HD 54 as a Toss Up.

Michigan House District 55

MI HD 55 contains the community of Rochester Hills. HD 55 overlaps considerably with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 45, which was a traditionally Republican leaning district that went for Romney by a little more than 12 points, but had moved several points to the left at the presidential level in 2016, with Trump carrying it by between 7 and 8 points, and further to the left in 2020, with Biden narrowly carrying it by less than 2 points. Until 2020, none of the state house races for HD 45 were especially close, with the most competitive race having been in 2018, where Republican Michael Webber was reelected by about 10 points. However, the 2020 house race was quite close, with Republican Mark Tisdel winning the open seat by just under 5 points, though he still outran Trump by quite a bit, likely due to the district still being friendlier to the GOP down-ballot. HD 55 is slightly bluer than HD 45, with Biden’s margin expanding to between 2 and 3 points in the former district. In 2022, Tisdel narrowly won reelection in HD 55 by about 3.5 points. As the only other GOP-held Biden seat in the chamber, the district should be another strong pick-up opportunity for Democrats, especially considering how close the previous state house result was. I’m classifying HD 55 as a Toss Up.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/20/2194368/-Michigan-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-20-HD-22-HD-54-HD-55

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