(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Is there even room on DK for some good news? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-09-22 In between catfights over when it is acceptable to blame a woman for her sexual assault (news flash, the answer is “never”), to a government shutdown that seems unavoidable (because the GOP has gone from crazy and harmful to straight-up crazy and openly working against America’s best interests instead of doing so quietly behind the scenes), to the latest, and no longer surprising, Donald Trump outrage, to the grandaddy of humanity’s problems, climate change….. I am not sure there is room for positive news but I think many people need some positivity right now. It’s not like I am the purveyor of positive vibes, generally speaking I am a realist, which is just a gussied-up way of saying “Debbie Downer.” I don’t see myself as such, I really do try to look at the real world for what it is…. but whatver. Anyway, maybe I should send this to the Good News Roundup folks or something but I wanted to put this theory out there for everyone because I believe the BIG picture is a positive one (well, outside of climate change, which is up for debate but that’s for another diary). Let’s start by saying history doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. That saying is a cultural truism but many people really don’t grasp the meaning in scope. Let me explain….. Where were we as a country roughly 80 years ago? We were coming out of massive economic upheaval caused by the callous greed of the ultra-weathy (due in part to speculation on investments driven by low interest rates). We were pulling back from the overreach of Christian Nationalism in the form of the Temperance Movement that forced abstinence of alcohol by a minority of mostly rural citizens over the wishes of the majority of mostly urban ones. We watched the rise of authoritarianism around the globe. An overreaching Supreme Court was being challenged by a progressive president and his supporters (speaking of “progressive presidents,” FDR was originally considered too conservative for many Democrats based on his record as governor). The nation saw the rebirth of the KKK and white supremacy. And we had an attempted overthrow of our government (if you haven’t listened to Rachel Maddow’s Ultra you REALLY should, it’s excellent), all set against the backdrop of a land war in Europe. Does any of that sound familiar to your modern ears? And where was the country roughly 80 years before that? Half the nation felt the newly elected president was illegitimate and they refused to accept his leadership. States that had threatened to succeed carried out that threat, resulting in a great Civil War between mostly rural Southern states and Northern states featuring large urban population centers. Ultra-wealthy plantation owners got poor Southern whites to fight their cause by blaming Northern urban centers for trying to take away their “culture.” All set against the backdrop of the ultimate form of white supremacy, slavery. And roughly 80 years before that? While a good portion of the colony’s citizens stood by the King, a sizable percentage of American colonists were willing to wage a war of independence from the British crown. This war of independence was based on the crown’s insistence on higher taxation over the colony’s defense by England during the French and Indian War and the enactment of laws many colonists felt were unjust. This all resulted in a war based on “freedom” from the authority of a ruler who lived thousands of miles from their home and didn’t understand the colonist’s lives, all set against the backdrop of the end of a major land war in Europe (many consider the Seven Years War to be the first world war) and a French Revolution sparked by wealth inequality and taxation just over the horizon. And very roughly 80 years before that? The Virginia Black Code of 1705 is passed, saying the quiet part out loud that black indentured servants were really slaves all along by stating “All servants imported and brought into the Country...who were not Christians in their native Country (?!?!?)...shall be accounted and be slaves” thereby ensuring Southern plantation owners would continue to amass great wealth on the backs of black Africans brought to the colonies against their will. Pennsylvania bans the import of newly enslaved people into the colony, helping to set the stage for the Civil War 150 years later. Secular rationalism was on the rise, prompting Thomas Woolston to proclaim in 1710 that Christianity would be gone by 1900. And the Ipswich Revolt centered on “denounced the levy of taxes” whose leader wrote “The origin of civil power is the people...and when they are free, they may set up what species of government they please” which many feel is the foundation for the War of Independence 80 years later. The early 1700's were a pretty tumultuous time. I could go on but I think the point is made, history rhymes over and over again. So this brings us back to the events of today. Do we somehow think we are beyond this historical poetry? Hardly. I noticed these patterns decades ago because I love history… but I don’t make claims about this theory….. nor do I think the theory is without some criticism. But I do think there is enough evidence to make it worth consideration. What is this theory you ask? This is an idea proposed by William Strauss and Neil Howe in their book “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny” released in 1997. The general idea of the book is that societies tend to go through 4 stages of change in a repeated pattern that cycles around a human lifespan (80 or so years). These four 20 year blocks are what we think of as generations. The 1st stage starts when a group of younger people born in the middle of the last era determine that the world they live in doesn’t fit their personal views or doesn’t benefit them in the long run. These younger people champion leaders like George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, leaders born after the last turning who don’t have a direct memory of that turning or the times before but are old enough to win political power and influence when backed by younger generations. More than a dozen signers of the Declaration of Independence were 35 years old and younger (!!), the abolitionist movement was empowered by the youth of Lincoln’s time, FDR (with much thanks to his amazing wife) created the National Youth Administration in part because he knew he owed younger supporters for their votes. This 1st turning comes after a period of great upheaval and change, resulting in a renewed sense of commitment to institutions and values that bind society together under a strong belief in progress and growth. This 1st turning is marked by progress and prosperity, in our era this is America between the mid 40’s to the mid 60’s. And yes, I know that prosperity didn’t include ALL Americans. But it is worth pointing out that, after witnessing much lower levels of racism in Europe, black servicemen returning from the war created the foundation of the Civil Rights movement. I see these black pioneers as the Greatest of the Greatest Generation. The 2nd stage comprises leaders who were the youth driving change through others in the 1st stage but are now entering politics and corporate leadership roles of their own. They understood the sacrifice of their generation during the last turning, in our era this is The Greatest Generation coming of age and exerting social influence in the mid 60's into the early 80’s. They fought fascism, they came home with a renewed sense of national purpose, they believed in our institutions and they supported a commitment to a shared value system. They brought these ideals into elected office and boardrooms around the nation. But as they retired or passed away, the Greatest Generation started to give way to Baby Boomers in elected office and corporations. This reflects a 3rd stage which is one of unraveling. Voters coming to power in the 3rd stage are made up of people who benefited from the prosperity of the 1st and 2nd stages. The younger people in this stage didn’t have a lived experience from the last turning. In our era they didn’t participate in WW2 or the Great Depression, but they reaped the rewards. In short, while they did work hard, they also had many good things handed down to them by the generation before them. The latest 3rd Truning is made up of white Baby Boomers who grew up in the 50's and 60’s and came to political and social power in the 80’s through the early 2000’s. This era is defined by a strong belief in individualism. When they were young, these people started off off strongly supporting the rights of all, think of the Equal Rights and Civil Rights movements, but slowly devolved into the protection of their individual rights above the rights of others as they age. This ^^^^ is the basis of MAGA today. Baby Boomers longing to go back to the 1st stage they were part of in their youth. A nostalgia for a time when THEY were safe and comfortable. But because these same Baby Boomers didn't participate in the last turning they don't know how to enact a safe and comfortable society, they just know how to live in one. In fact, their lack of experience from the last 4th Turning is causing the current 4th Turning we are in today. This 3rd stage is represented by an unraveling of our social bonds. The voters born during the 1st turning come to their greatest voting power during the start of 3rd into the middle of the 4th turning. They elect leaders like Andrew Jackson, Woodrow Wilson, Herbert Hoover and in our era, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump.… you probably noticed that list, with the exception of Nixon, is a who’s who of the worst American Presidents. This unraveling is brought about by unchecked individualism and loss of self-worth by members of society who remember a “better time” (better in their own minds) but they don't know how that better time was achieved because they were not alive during the period before. The 4th stage, or the 4th Truning as the authors put it, is an era of great crisis and upheaval where people born during the 1st Truning have lost a sense of cohesion, a distrust of institutions, and a willingness to “burn it all down.” At the same time, the people born in the 3rd Turning have known nothing but unease, financial instability, and political upheaval. These people see a dependence on our institutions and the power of collective group organization as their only hope for a better future. In our era these are Millenials and they are forming organizations that ARE MAKING a difference. Black Lives Matter, the Parkland shooting survivors, the rise of labor union interest over the last decade, MeToo, Taylor Swift’s Swifties, Occupy Wall Street, The Sunrise Movement… these are the next wave of voters! We are in that 4th stage right now. Again, I am not saying that everything proposed by the authors is correct, but they did make a lot of correct predictions about our current state of affairs way back in 1997. Why do I see this as a positive story? Well, the theory doesn't say that things will turn out great in the end; they aren’t ruling out the possibility that we will tip into authoritarianism. However, this theory also points to a potential future full of hope and possibilities. I hear pessimists say that “the younger generation isn't going to save us” or “young voters can’t be counted on” and I want to pull my hair out. The people saying that haven’t lived through the type of unrest our current Millenials have. Millennials have only known lower wages and income inequality during their professional careers. They grew up during 9/11. Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq went on for the majority of their adult lives. They watched Hurricane Katrina and through that lens they see climate change coming for them. They were the first generation to grow up under the serious threat of school shootings. They were the first generation to grow up seeing video evidence of police brutality on YouTube and TikTok. They are the first generation in our era to expect lower wages and a lower standard of living than their parents and they are witnessing the first dip in life expectancy as well. We simply can't compare youth voting records from Baby Boomers and Gen X to future voting participation by Millenials because Millenials have had a VERY different life experience. This has been a very long diary I know, it's something I had to get off my chest, I hope someone reads it. :) But if I were to sum everything up I would say that we are in the 4th turning now, this stage is full of unrest and crisis as we have seen. Things look bleak, I get that. But if history is a guide, and I believe it is, then we are right on the doorstep of a new beginning, a 1st Turning full of progress and a commitment to shared values and institutions. And it will be Millenials who drive that change! The 80 year cycle outlined above is rough and it has extended a bit as human lifespans increase so the next great turning was predicted to come around 2030 or so, which appears to be playing out. If we can hold on for just another election cycle or two, I firmly…. FIRMLY... believe we are about to witness a drastic and positive change sweep through our society and we can thank Millenials if it comes to pass. Please don't knock them, they hold our future in their hands and I believe they will come through. Let's support Millenials and encourage them to make the change we all need, and let’s get our Democratic party to recognize the value of these voters in the long run. Here's to holding out hope based on our knowledge of history. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/22/2194797/-Is-there-even-room-on-DK-for-some-good-news Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/