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Pandemic Observations, Early Fall Update -- Summer Resurgence has Culminated! [1]

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Date: 2023-09-27  

According to the most recent CDC Hospitalization Data, the current resurgence of Covid-19 has now culminated and is starting to recede once again.

And while this was certainly the most significant resurgence since the start of the year, it pales in comparison to any of the six major prior surges in terms of both hospitalizations and the weekly death toll.

Peak hospitalizations barely cracked 20k per week nationwide this time around, which is less than 1/6 the rate reached during the height of Omicron in early 2022, and less than 1/2 of its two later echos.

Even better, the ratio of deaths to hospitalizations continues to decline -- from well over 20% during the height of the Alpha and Delta phases in 2021, and a still distressing >15% during Omicron in early 2022, it has remained under 10% since then, and appears to have fallen to ~7% in this most recent resurgence.

If last year is any guide to what we might expect in the coming year from Covid, we could see one more surge comparable to what we've seen this summer emerge at the end of this year or early next year, and then another long slow fadeout to even lower numbers than we saw this spring.

At that point, annual booster shots should hopefully prove more than adequate in keeping Covid confined to an endemic status analogous to the seasonal flu in its overall future impact.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/27/2195815/-Pandemic-Observations-Early-Fall-Update-Summer-Resurgence-has-Culminated

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