(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . The Tail Has No Dog [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-09-29 Almost without fail, on any given day, I’ll hear at least one newscaster or pundit make a reference to “half the country” being pitted against the other half. As the presidential race of 2024 comes closer into view, one poll after another seems to indicate that somehow, it’s a “dead heat” between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. On the one hand, there is Biden, who has led a spectacular economic recovery, whose often bi-partisan legislative accomplishments rival or exceed that of any U.S. President since FDR. He has presided over a 50-year record low unemployment, while jump-starting the country’s climate crisis response, brought computer chip manufacturing back home and successfully re-built our NATO and other global alliances, just to name a few. Supposedly, his approval ratings are in the toilet. And the other guy? The other guy is a twice-impeached former president, an anti-democracy conman currently facing 91 counts of federal indictment in 4 jurisdictions, including absconding with state secret materials, launching a still-ongoing coup attempt, and being at the top of a RICO conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2020 election, among many other transgressions. This guy regularly threatens prosecutors, judges, political rivals, even lowly election workers. And this past week, the company he supposedly built his fortune on was found guilty in NY State of outright fraud, including falsifying property valuations, and misleading both banks and investors. He allegedly manipulated the value of Trump properties and other real estate assets by up to $2.2 billion annually. These two guys are supposedly “tied” in the 2024 presidential race. And that implies that “half the country” is behind Trump. But how can this be? The answer, of course, is that the supposed “tie” is itself a fraudulent representation, made possible by mainstream media’s toxic dependence on polling and social media to create profitable news cycles. They continually use descriptors that include “half the country” when referring to those citizens who supposedly support the number one threat to our democracy, Donald Trump. Trump himself makes the most of this false characterization on his private social media account with statements like "Republicans in Congress can and must defund all aspects of Crooked Joe Biden's weaponized Government that refuses to close the Border, and treats half the Country (emphasis mine) as Enemies of the State.” The characterization has its roots in public opinion polls that, as an integrated element, reinforce the characterization of our country as divided down the middle, red against blue. It’s an implied backdrop that is vulnerable to false equivalencies, flawed conclusions and their repercussions. But it’s a “news” narrative perfectly designed to monetize the horse-race that is almost any election for high public office. This unrelenting narrative leaves most Americans feeling exasperated, if not completely depressed. “How can it be?” we ask ourselves. How can half the country be so crazed as to want to support a four-time indicted, twice-impeached, admitted sexual predator, malignant narcissist, serial liar and proud insurrectionist who is still wielding influence? “Who would support that guy? Half the country? That can’t be, can it? “ Half the country? Really? No, not really. Here’s why: The country is not divided right down the middle. In fact, it isn’t even close. It’s not even 25% that support the MAGA king. No, not even 10% It’s less than 8% of all registered voters and just under 7% of all eligible voters. Really? How is that possible, you might ask? To answer that question, we need only look at the numbers themselves. But first, a bit of context: There are different groups belonging to the political right, whose titles are often used interchangeably to suit the narrative. There is the largest group, the Republican Party, and within it, the “MAGA” base. The MAGAs fall into 3 groups: (1) MAGAs in office, (2) MAGA terrorists, and (3) everyday MAGA voters. Those in the first group, the “MAGAs in office” are currently wreaking as much havoc as possible, in what at the broadest level can only be described as sustained efforts to derail our democracy by whatever means necessary, and replace it with minority rule that operates seamlessly under an autocratic leader like Trump. The Marjorie Taylor Greenes, Jim Jordans, Matt Gaetzs and another 150 or so Republicans in Congress who voted not to certify Joe Biden’s win, even after the rioters stormed the Capitol on Jan 6th, are all doing their fascist work in Washington, mostly. And they are all about being LOUD. They strive to capture the headlines, with almost anything outrageous or disgusting enough to compel coverage within a news cycle. They are loud and obnoxious, but in terms of raw numbers, less than a couple hundred people. The second group, the MAGA terrorists, are those who are willing to break the law, even with violence, in order to accomplish their tactical goals, in support of the larger MAGA goals. These include members of groups like the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, and their enablers; people like Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, Ginny Thomas, and a host of other indicted and still unindicted January 6th co-conspirators. All may not have sported AR-17s, but they all assisted (and continue to assist) in Operation Destroy Democracy, each playing their part. If innocent people (preferably their enemies) die for the cause, so be it, as far as they are concerned. Fortunately, almost a thousand terrorists from this group are already in prison or awaiting justice. And while it’s true that any one or few of these domestic terrorists could do awful, horrible things that hurt some or a lot of people, their actual numbers are tiny, and they are under close watch of the authorities, who this time around are prepared. If they think they’re going to overtake the U.S. military and National Guard by force, they will learn soon enough what it’s like to run head-first into a buzz-saw. The third group, the hard-core MAGA Voters, may not be ready to risk life, limb or prison for the cause, but they are more than willing to fly Trump flags on their pick-ups, give endlessly to the MAGA grift machine, and travel from one Trump “rally” to another in order to further glorify their orange lord, and experience that sense of belonging that only a cult can deliver. They are as loud and ugly as needed in the name of “freedom.” These Trump die-hards are willing to follow their messiah anywhere he directs them to. They are committed to him and him alone. Even if he’s convicted of federal or state crimes, they will still support him. They will never vote for anyone else. End of story. It may seem like there are a lot of them (and there are); but again, it’s nowhere near “half the country,” despite what your favorite newscasters might tell you. All three MAGA groups thrive on being loud, as loud as possible; as outrageous, as nakedly hypocritical, as rude and crude as possible, with no seeming guardrails. Why would they do this? Because the mainstream media loves to give them headlines, and this enables them to seem large, much larger than their actual numbers reveal. It’s a symbiotic relationship. But you don’t need to believe the pundits. The numbers themselves simply don’t support the lie. Let’s break down the actual numbers: Here are some relevant polling results (putting aside the outsize and caustic role that polls have in our political system . Polls consistently report that roughly 45% of registered Republicans will stand by Trump no matter what he does or says, even if he is breaking the law, lying, and/or hurting people (the classic “end justifies the means”). In February 2021, less than a month after the January 6th insurrection, a Suffolk University-USA Today poll found that 46 percent of Republicans said they would abandon the GOP and join a new “Trump Party,” if the former president decided to create one. These folks believed the Big Lie and supported the insurrection. This is the likely size of the hardcore MAGA “base” at its peak. This poll was taken before Trump manifested four indictments, two-impeachments, liability for rape-related defamation, findings of fraud by the Trump organization, and other mounting legal problems. 46% is the high-water mark at best. At this point it’s probably less than 46% of registered Republicans. But I digress… As of July 2021, 36.4 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans. 46% of that number (per the poll above) is 16,744,000. So, out of an estimated total of 206,557,583 actual registered voters in January 2021, the hard-core Trumpian MAGA base of "46% of registered Republicans” (16,744,000) equals roughly 8% of total registered voters, and barely 7% of the total eligible voters. Did you get that? 8% of total registered voters, and barely 7% of the total eligible voters. They may be loud and obnoxious, but they are definitely not “half the country.” The actual percentage of total registered and eligible voters that they represent is puny, and it should be obvious that almost any reasonable turnout on election day will relegate this group to the electoral garbage heap. So what about the other 54% of registered Republicans? They are not “half the country” either, even if you add their numbers to the hard-core MAGA voter group. Meaning that even if 100% of all registered Republicans turn out and vote for the Republican nominee (whoever that is) in 2024 (which far from a given), only 17.6% of all possible registered voters will be Republican (36.4 million registered republicans divided by 206,557,583 total registered voters = 17.6%). If all registered Republican voters only add up to 17.6% of all registered voters, how can we say that America is evenly divided? The assertion relies in large part on an endless stream of public opinion polls that say so. But these polls exist first and foremost in service to the most convenient (and monetizable) political narrative we’re exposed to on any given day. The assertion also relies upon the most vocal right-wing views being amplified by mainstream, right wing and social media (e.g. X, Facebook), despite the tiny minority of voters that these views represent. It’s no wonder this ever-dwindling minority party has pulled out all the stops to retain any semblance of power. If they cannot win by getting the most votes, they must get power by gaming the system (think gerrymandering, voter suppression, big money in politics, a right-wing Supreme Court, etc. etc.), and this also includes gaming the all-too-willing mainstream media into constantly implying that the anti-democracy cretins represents “half the country.” The numbers above are revelatory, but can’t be looked at in a vacuum. In the end, voter turnout will be the determining factor, as it always is. And if anything, the influence that the hard-right yields on election day will likely be diminished further by other important factors at play. Here’s why: Whether the extreme right likes it or not, a majority of voters are convinced that the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade was more about political extremism than law. Women across the country are none-too-pleased to have a few powerful men overturn hard-fought personal rights to their own bodies, established more than 50 years ago. Then there are ongoing, multiple legal proceedings against Donald J. Trump, which are likely to be tried in court before the general election in November 2024. There is good reason to believe that the Donald will eventually be heading to prison (unless he flees to Russia in the middle of the night). While seeing the orange one prosecuted for his crimes might enrage the various MAGA factions, it certainly won’t add to their numbers. There are plenty of previously “normal” Republican voters who are not MAGA cultists and who are already in the process of dropping their support for The Big Liar and his cohort, if not his fascist goals. Despite polls indicating the opposite outcomes, the Republicans have been losing heavily in almost all special elections, even in districts that were previously thought safe for the GOP. This, in combination with the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling and the various criminal counts against Trump and his co-conspirators, suggests that voters will severely punish the GOP come November 2024. The mainstream media’s insistence that the Democrats are in trouble because Biden is “too old,” or people have Trump fatigue, or most importantly “the polls now indicate…” are only about increasing their advertising revenues by promoting a never-ending political horse race. So, ignore the polls. Ignore the pundits. They don’t represent you, or your vote. Don’t swallow the mainstream’s predictions of a close race favoring the Republicans. Instead, remember that the MAGAs are less than 8% of the registered voters, at best. The new Authoritarian GOP is barely 17% of the total electorate. Remember that women across the country, regardless of party, don’t like the government telling them what to do with their own bodies. And finally, remember that real Americans, regardless of party, don’t go for armed insurrection, loss of voting rights, and authoritarian rule. And we will vote in November to make those views clear. The writing is on the wall, for anyone willing to look. The very scary tail has no dog. At 8%, it’s barely a tail, and it’s spastic wagging will come to an end. Stay focused and vote — that is democracy’s salvation. Richard Lang is the CEO of Democrasoft, Inc., author of Virtual Country: Strategy for 21st Century Democracy, and co-founder of the Advisory Vote initiative. Check out his newsletter: RichardLang.Substack.com [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196378/-The-Tail-Has-No-Dog Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/