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Morning Digest: Arizona GOP Rep. Trent Franks resigns after asking staffers to bear his children [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2017-12-11  

LEADING OFF

● AZ-08: The strangest political story in a very strange year just got even stranger. Just a day after GOP Rep. Trent Franks announced he'd resign because he'd asked two female staffers to serve as surrogate mothers for him and his wife, the AP reported that Franks had repeatedly pushed one aide to carry his child and had offered her $5 million to do so. It gets even worse: Politico says that the women in Franks' office thought their boss "was asking to have sexual relations with them" because they were unsure whether he was "asking about impregnating [them] through sexual intercourse or in vitro fertilization."

There's more still. One staffer says that Franks "tried to persuade a female aide that they were in love by having her read an article that described how a person knows they're in love with someone," and another says that her access to the congressman was cut off after she rebuffed his advances. Franks had originally said he'd leave office at the end of January, but just before these latest revelations were published, he announced he'd be quitting immediately.

It's all so disturbing, and good riddance. But perversely, it also helps shed light on the most mysterious episode of Franks' career (which, believe it or not, is not this one). In 2011, Franks was preparing to run for what was then an open Senate seat, and indeed, his own consultant confirmed to reporter Dave Catanese that he was going to kick off a bid, complete with date and time of announcement. But just the day before, Franks shockingly pulled the plug without explanation, and we've never had an inkling why—until now.

According to Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts, Franks' "after-hours activities caught up to him," with one unnamed operative claiming there was a "file" on Franks that was shared with him to deter him from running. Another said that Franks "wrote creepy text messages a decade ago" to another politico. As is invariably the case, once a creep, always a creep. Did we say good riddance?

Of course, that now means there's yet another vacancy to fill in Congress, and folks are already lining up. This seat, which includes some of Phoenix's conservative suburbs, backed Romney 62-37 and Trump 58-37, so most of the action will be in the GOP primary. On Thursday evening, ex-state Corporate Commissioner Bob Stump announced he was in. Stump, was elected twice statewide to the utility regulation agency, and as far as we can tell, he's not related to the late GOP congressman with the same name. However, Stump was at the center of a controversy that, while considerably more safe-for-work than the Franks drama, did get his name in a few papers.

In 2016, the Attorney General's Office seized Stump's phone during an investigation of former Commissioner Gary Pierce in search of evidence that Pierce had engaged in inappropriate political activity. Meanwhile, a watchdog group called Checks and Balances Project requested thousands of deleted texts from Stump's phone, arguing the texts could show if he had illegally helped two Republicans running for the commission coordinate with independent groups. The attorney general's office didn't find those relevant texts, and a judge ruled that, while it was possible a more thorough search could uncover those messages, the AG's search was good enough. Stump left the commission early this year due to term limits.

Several other Republicans are considering running in the upcoming special election. State Sens. Debbie Lesko and Kimberly Yee and Maricopa County Supervisor Clint Hickman each publicly expressed interest, and the Arizona Republic reports that state Sen. Steve Montenegro and ex-state Rep. Phil Lovas are "believed to be considering it." Politico also mentioned ex-Gov. Jan Brewer as a possibility, but there's no sign she's interested.

This seat is incredibly challenging for Democrats. According to Miles Coleman, even Republican Joe Arpaio carried it 52.5-47.5 as he was losing re-election as Maricopa County sheriff 56-44. (The whole seat is in Maricopa.) However, Democrats have an interesting candidate who was already running here with little fanfare. From July to September, physician Hiral Tipirneni raised $92,000 from donors and self-funded another $73,000, leaving her with $123,000 on-hand.

SENATE

● MN-Sen-B: Democratic Sen. Al Franken's impending resignation has begun to set things in motion for candidates who could run in next year's special election to succeed him. Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton had reportedly been leaning toward appointing his Lt. Gov. Tina Smith as a senator who wouldn't run in the special election, allowing Democrats to have a wide-open primary. However, the Washington Post now reports that Smith is now considering running for the seat in her own right next year, although neither Dayton nor Smith has confirmed anything publicly yet.

Smith has been lieutenant governor since the 2014 elections and is a longtime Dayton ally. She had previously considered running to succeed him next year, but announced she wouldn't run earlier this year. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has reportedly urged Dayton to appoint a senator who will run again next year so that they can have incumbency on their side.

However, past experience suggests that appointed senators hardly accrue much benefit from incumbency in a general election compared to an incumbent who had previously been elected in their own right. Nevertheless, appointees have a strong track record of at least winning their party's nomination in recent decades. If Dayton's appointee runs for a full term, it could prevent Democrats from having a costly and bruising primary—of course, it could also ruffle a few feathers among ambitious Democrats who don't get the appointment.

While Dayton makes up his mind, the Republican field has slowly begun to take shape. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty isn't exactly chomping at the bit to run, but he isn't quite ruling it out, either. Pawlenty recently said, "Life is funny in a way you can never say never about things. We'll see what the future holds. But again from all of this you should never assume anything is changing." Another Republican also isn't ruling out a campaign after state Rep. Sarah Anderson said she "hasn't given it a lot of thought," although she currently says she's running for re-election.

Meanwhile, the Pioneer Press reports that former state Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch is considering running, although there's no word from her directly. While Republicans may think that nominating a woman could help them attack Democrats over Franken, Koch seems like almost the exactly wrong candidate to do so. She had to resign her leadership post less than a year into her term in 2011 after it came to light that she had had an affair with one of her subordinates, and she didn't run for re-election in 2012 due to the scandal. Koch had declared back in August that she was thinking of running for governor, but she hasn't said much since then.

The Pioneer Press also mentions a handful of other Republicans who could run, although there's no indication of how interested any of them is. This list includes Reps. Tom Emmer and Erik Paulsen; state House Speaker Kurt Daudt; state Sens. Julie Rosen and Karin Housley; and retired Army Maj. Pete Hegseth, who is a Fox News contributor and unsuccessful 2012 Senate candidate.

● VA-Sen: Republicans are scrambling to recruit a not-crazy candidate to take on Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine next year. Prince William County Supervisor and Confederate fanboy Corey Stewart is the only GOP candidate in the face so far, but former Republican candidate for lieutenant governor and yoga opponent E.W. Jackson will reportedly announce his candidacy on Monday.

Confronted by the possibility of a primary between Stewart, who almost won the gubernatorial primary last summer by running on a hard-right platform of "Confederate heritage" and Trumpism, and Jackson, a conservative minister who thinks that "most people are dead spirits," GOP leaders are scrambling to recruit a less extreme candidate. U.S. Sens. Rand Paul and Mike Lee have met with Virginia Del. Nick Freitas—who was just elected to his second term—and are grooming him to run. Additionally, NRSC chair Sen. Cory Gardner recently met with former Gov. Jim Gilmore to ask him to get into the race.

If Gilmore runs, it won't be his first foray into a U.S. Senate campaign; in 2008, Gilmore ran against Mark Warner and was annihilated, losing to his successor in the Virginia governor's office by a 65-34 margin. This trouncing didn't discourage Gilmore from getting back into electoral politics in 2015, when he declared his candidacy for president, becoming the 17th Republican to vie for the 2016 nomination. His campaign limped along for about six months, but after receiving only 12 votes in the Iowa caucuses and 133 votes in the New Hampshire primary, he ended his presidential bid in February 2016.

● WY-Sen: Now here's a real blast from the past. Businessman Gary Trauner, a Democrat who very narrowly lost a 2006 House bid to Republican incumbent Barbara Cubin, then lost an open seat race to Cynthia Loomis 53-43 the next cycle, has announced he will run for the U.S. Senate. GOP Sen. John Barrasso is seeking re-election, but both Blackwater founder Erik Prince and billionaire Foster Friess have made noises about challenging him in the primary.

Back in 2006, Trauner took on six-term Rep. Cubin for Wyoming's only House seat. While Cubin represented one of the most conservative states in the Union, she wasn't exactly popular at home. Cubin had always displayed odd behavior: During her time in the legislature, she notably baked penis-shaped cookies and gave them to her colleagues, explaining, "People sometimes do things that they wouldn't do in front of their mother."

In 2004, as George W. Bush was carrying the Cowboy State 69-29, Cubin only won 55-42. The political climate and Cubin's problems gave Trauner a real chance for victory. Notably, after a debate weeks before Election Day, Cubin told wheelchair-bound Libertarian nominee Thomas Rankin, "If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face." Cubin ended up beating Trauner just 48.3-47.8, with Rankin taking 4.

Cubin decided to retire rather than run again, a move that may have saved the seat for the GOP. Trauner ran another credible campaign against state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, who did not have Cubin's considerable baggage, and prognosticators predicted another competitive contest. Lummis won 53-43, running well behind John McCain's 65-33 victory, but this wasn't another cliffhanger. Until now, Trauner hadn't waged another campaign. He went on to serve as chief operating officer of St. John's Medical Center in Jackson, and resigned as executive director of the Jackson Hole Lacrosse Club to run for the Senate.

To say that this is an uphill campaign is an understatement. Trump's 68-22 win last year made Wyoming his best state anywhere, and it remains brutally red down the ballot. It's also incredibly hard to see Barrasso losing a general election. Even if Price or Friess somehow upset Barrasso in the primary, this would be an unlikely pickup at best. Still, both men have some big liabilities. It would take an unlikely chain of events for either of them to not only win but be toxic enough to put this seat into play, but Trauner demonstrated in 2006 that he's capable of running a strong race against a bad opponent.

GUBERNATORIAL

● ID-Gov: State Rep. Paulette Jordan, who is the only Native American serving in the legislature, announced on Thursday that she would seek the Democratic nomination for this open seat. Jordan narrowly unseated a GOP incumbent during the 2014 GOP wave and won re-election 51-49 as Trump was carrying her North Idaho seat 46-40, making her just one of just five Idaho Democratic legislators who represents a Trump district. Wealthy businessman A.J. Balukoff, who lost the 2014 general election to GOP incumbent Butch Otter 54-39, has filed to run again, and he's said he'll announce after the December holidays.

● IL-Gov: On Friday, both Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth endorsed billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker. Pritzker, who has already spent $15 million on TV ads, faces businessman Chris Kennedy and state Sen. Daniel Biss in the March Democratic primary to face GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner.

There haven't been many polls, but Pritzker is widely acknowledged as the primary frontrunner. Much of the party establishment is supporting Pritzker as well, with Politico's Natasha Korecki writing that powerful Speaker Mike Madigan, who is also chair of the state party, has worked behind the scenes to help him. Both Biss and Kennedy in turn are arguing that Pritzker is too close to the powers that be, though Korecki points out that both also have a history of working with Madigan.

● KS-Gov: Kansas' GOP primary for governor isn't until next August, but a group with ties to the Koch Brothers has been running an ad for $80,000 that praises Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer as a doctor who "will be a great governor." Colyer faces several notable primary rivals in the race to succeed GOP Gov. Sam Brownback. He has been expected to be elevated to the governor's office once the Senate confirms Brownback as a low-level ambassador, but Brownback's nomination has so far stalled.

● NY-Gov: The Albany Times Union is reporting that the FBI is investigating Gov. Andrew Cuomo's administration for hiring highly paid political appointees through other state agencies as a way to avoid increasing the budget of the governor's own office. For instance, one six-figure Cuomo speechwriter is actually employed by the state's Office of Children and Family Services, while another technically works for a quasi-governmental entity called the Affordable Housing Corporation. A Cuomo spokesperson called the investigation "absurd" and said the practice dates back 50 years, which apparently is true (a 2003 New York Times piece said governors going back to Nelson Rockefeller, who was in office from 1959-1973, have done this).

Cuomo is up for re-election next year, though barring catastrophe, he should have little to fear from any Republican opponent, and in fact he doesn't even have one yet. He might have more trouble from a progressive challenger in a Democratic primary, though. And while the practices targeted by this investigation might draw yawns, you never know what the feds might find when they go looking.

HOUSE

● AZ-02: GOP Rep. Martha McSally hasn't announced yet that she's leaving this competitive seat behind to run for the Senate, but one prominent local Republican has already kicked off her campaign to succeed her. Lea Marquez-Peterson, the head of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, emailed supporters to say she'll announce she's in on Thursday. Marquez-Peterson later told the Tucson Sentinel that "I'd never run against Martha," and is "moving forward believing that she intends to run for Senate."

Marquez-Peterson is close to Gov. Doug Ducey, and she's been encouraged to run by local GOP power players. Marquez-Peterson also has a reputation as a moderate, which could be an asset in the general election for a seat that swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-45 Clinton. But as we've noted before, conservative candidates beat the establishment choices in the last version of this seat in the 2006 and 2010 primaries, only to lose in the general. Several other local Republicans have also expressed interest in running to succeed McSally.

● CO-03: It looks like we'll only have one Democrat named Chris Kennedy to think about this cycle. Grand Junction City Councilor Chris Kennedy dropped out of the primary to take on GOP Rep. Scott Tipton, citing " family health issues." Kennedy only raised $1,000 during the third quarter, so he never seemed like a serious candidate. State Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush has been running here for a while, and Karl Hanlon, who serves as chief legal counsel for the city of Glenwood Springs, jumped in recently. This western Colorado seat went from 52-46 Romney to 52-40 Trump.

● ME-02: Last month, Mainers overwhelmingly voted to expand Medicaid in their state, passing a ballot measure that would do so by a wide 59-41 margin. However, according to new calculations from Daily Kos Elections, levels of support varied considerably between the state's two congressional districts. In the 1st District, which is the more liberal of the two and includes the city of Portland, 65 percent of voters backed the measure while just 35 percent opposed it.

But in the rural 2nd District, which covers the northern part of the state and flipped from 53-44 Obama to 51-41 Trump last year, expansion passed by a much tighter 52-48 spread. Still, that's probably not good news for Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin, whom Democrats are hoping to target in 2018. Earlier this year, Poliquin voted in favor of the GOP's plan to repeal Obamacare; just a few months later, his constituents voted to expand Obamacare.

The question is what will matter more come November: Poliquin's personal appeal (he won a competitive re-election in 2016 55-45), or his stance on the issues. Even in bad years or bad states for Democrats, we've seen voters support progressive measures at the ballot box, such as increasing the minimum wage or liberalizing marijuana laws, while still voting up and down the ballot for Republican office-holders. But given progressive furor over the GOP's attempts to repeal health care in particular, 2018 could wind up looking different.

● MI-13: On Friday, GOP Gov. Rick Snyder announced that he had set the special election for this safely blue seat to coincide with Michigan's regularly scheduled elections. The special election primary will be Aug. 7, the same day as the statewide primary, and the general will be Nov. 6, so this seat will be vacant for almost a year. The chair of the district Democratic Party requested these dates, arguing that voter turnout would be lower if the special primary was held earlier. Because the special primary will be held at the same time as the primary for a full two-year term, this means that the winner will get two years of incumbency before they need to face primary voters again instead of the few months they'd have gotten if Snyder had scheduled the special for an earlier date.

Also on Friday, state Sen. Coleman Young II confirmed that he'd run to succeed longtime Rep. John Conyers, who resigned after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. Young is the son of the late Coleman Young, who was Detroit's first black mayor. He ran for his father's old job this year against fellow Democrat Mike Duggan, who is Detroit's first white mayor since the older Young took office in 1974.

Duggan was always the clear favorite to win a second term, and at the end of the campaign, Young repeatedly declared that it was "time to take back the motherland for the people." The remark was widely interpreted as an attempt to encourage voters in a city where most residents are black to dump their white chief executive, something Young didn't really deny. He later told the Detroit Free Press, "I meant to say it, but listen, was that to inspire African Americans? Absolutely, I'm unapologetically black and I'm not going to apologize for that but there were also other connotations to that. I meant that for the mother that's got to put a bucket outside her house to collect rainwater, because her water's been shut off." In November, Duggan beat Young 72-28.

Young represents only about 10 percent of the 13th District in the legislature, and he acknowledged that he currently lives in another seat. Detroit makes up a little more than half of the 13th, so Coleman should have some name recognition from his recent mayoral bid, though given how badly it went, that may not be a good thing. Still, there are plenty of Democrats considering running to succeed Conyers, and anything can happen in a crowded race.

So far, the only other notable Democrat who has announced is fellow state Sen. Ian Conyers, the former congressman's grandnephew and someone we haven't discussed much in detail yet. Conyers also represents only about 10 percent of the seat, and he also comes from a very famous local political family. Conyers has worked in local Democratic politics and in city government in Washington D.C. He only won elected office for the first time one year ago in a special election, winning a crowded Democratic primary 35-26.

Politico's Zack Stanton writes that over the last year, it's been an "open secret" in Detroit that when Rep. Conyers decided to leave, Ian Conyers would succeed him. Indeed, Ian Conyers said days before his granduncle resigned that he'd run whenever the seat opened up. However, Stanton writes that Monica Conyers, the former congressman's wife, was angry with Ian Conyers and made a last-minute change to the succession plan. On Tuesday, as John Conyers resigned, he said he wanted their son John Conyers III to run. Ian Conyers said he was still going to seek this seat, and insists that John Conyers encouraged him to run days before his resignation. For his part, Conyers III says he's still deciding what to do.

A few other Democrats also showed interest in running. State Sen. David Knezek, who represents about a third of this seat, put out a statement acknowledging he was looking at this contest. While most of the people eyeing this seat are black, Knezek is white. African American residents make up about 54 percent of this seat while 37 percent of its denizens are white, so Knezek could have an edge in a crowded race if racial voting patterns come into play, although black voters undoubtedly make up a larger share of the Democratic primary than in a general election. Of course, as Duggan's clear win last month showed, race is far from the be-all, end-all in a Democratic primary.

Ex-state Rep. Shanelle Jackson also recently said she was considering. Jackson challenged Conyers in 2012 after Republicans dramatically reconfigured his seat in redistricting, but she took third with 13 percent of the vote, well behind Conyers' 55 percent. Two years later, Jackson ran for an open seat in the state Senate and lost the primary to Knezek 32-24.

● TX-21: On Thursday, Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed his former chief of staff Chip Roy in the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Lamar Smith. Cruz's support probably wouldn't have been so welcome a year ago when Republicans everywhere were pissed with his tepid-at-best support for Trump, and other Texas Republicans weren't ruling out challenging him. However, Cruz has been one of Trump's more cooperative allies in 2017, and he seems to have rehabilitated his image with the base.

● TX-27: On Thursday, Bech Bruun resigned as chair of the Texas Water Development Board, and he filed to challenge GOP Rep. Blake Farenthold in the primary for this safely red Corpus Christi-area seat the next day. Bruun hadn't shown any public interest in this race until one week ago, hours after Politico reported that Farenthold had used $84,000 in taxpayer money in 2015 to settle a sexual harassment lawsuit filed against him by his former communications director Lauren Greene.

Details about the lawsuit have been publicly known since late 2014, but the House GOP leadership hadn't been publicly bothered by them for years. Even after Politico's story broke earlier this month, House Speaker Paul Ryan not only declined to call for Farenthold to step down from his safely red seat, but his spokesperson even sounding dismissive of Greene's claims that her former boss harassed and improperly fired her.

But on Thursday evening, the mood changed when NRCC chair Steve Stivers declared that "Blake Farenthold has some thinking to do about whether he wants to run for re-election or not." That's still a very, very weaksauce statement compared to his Democratic counterpart Ben Ray Luján, who immediately and publicly told Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen to resign after a former Kihuen campaign aide accused him of sexual harassment, but it goes further than the GOP leadership had ever gone before against Farenthold.

On Friday, a second Farenthold staffer, Elizabeth Peace, also publicly charged the congressman with letting his office to become a hostile work environment. Farenthold "allowed the hostility in his office to continue," said Peace. "He allowed us to work in a place that was just emotionally damaging, and that should never be allowed in any office." She went on: "While he didn't sexually harass me, his comments were inappropriate and his unwillingness to immediately take action to allow us to work in a safe environment is inappropriate." Also on Friday, the House Ethics Committee announced it would re-examine Greene's allegations against Farenthold.

Texas' candidate filing deadline is on Monday, so we'll see very soon if Farenthold forges ahead with his re-election campaign. But if he does, he could be in for a rough ride. Last year, after details about Greene's lawsuit were known but had been out of the headlines for months, Farenthold only beat a little-known and underfunded primary foe 56-44; Bruun, by contrast, seems to have the connections to put up a considerably stronger fight. And unlike in 2016, Farenthold can't just keep quiet and hope ugly stories about him just vanish from the front pages. In addition, there will be a runoff in May if no one takes a majority in the March primary, so Farenthold can't just coast to victory on a plurality of the vote.

[END]
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