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Party switch set to give North Carolina GOP a supermajority, which may lead to abortion ban and more [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2023-04-04  

Axios reported Tuesday that Democratic state Rep. Tricia Cotham in North Carolina planned to switch to the Republican Party on Wednesday and give Republicans a three-fifths supermajority, news Democratic leader Robert Reives confirmed hours later as he called for her resignation.

Since the GOP already has exactly a three-fifths edge in the state Senate (thanks to gerrymanders that were ruled unconstitutional in December), the switch would enable them to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's vetoes and put constitutional amendments on the ballot―a development that could lead to many significant policy changes such as new restrictions on abortion rights, voting access, and much more.

Last week just two days after a mass shooting in Nashville made national headlines, Cotham and two other Democrats missed a vote where their absences enabled Republicans to override Cooper's veto of a bill that repealed a century-old requirement that handgun purchasers first get a permit from their local sheriff. Cotham claimed she was getting treatment for long COVID, but some Democrats alleged that she had purposefully missed the vote to allow it to pass. Local journalist Bryan Anderson reported that this backlash seriously irked Cotham and may have been what prompted the party-switch

Unlike many previous Democratic lawmakers who became Republicans in the Tar Heel State in prior decades, Cotham changing parties makes very little sense on paper. She represents a Charlotte area district that would have backed Joe Biden 61-38 in 2020 and has been zooming leftward over the past decade like many other well-educated suburban districts.

However, Cotham may be counting on the GOP drawing her a much redder district for next year, since the new Republican majority on North Carolina's Supreme Court recently reheard a case where the prior Democratic majority in December had ruled that gerrymandering violated the state constitution. Observers widely interpreted that as a sign that the GOP justices would reverse the decision and enable a new round of extreme Republican gerrymanders for the 2024 elections (Cooper can't veto most redistricting bills regardless).

Even if Cotham does get a redder district to run in, though, she would have to survive a Republican primary first, and that's far from a given for a member who up until now has been aligned with mainstream Democrats on many major issues. Just earlier this year, Cotham had co-sponsored a bill to codify abortion rights, and her campaign website, as of Tuesday, still expressed support for a $15 minimum wage, treating health care as a right, protecting voting rights, LGBTQ equality, and more.

If Cotham starts voting consistently with Republicans, though, her switch could have profound policy consequences. Until last week's gun bill, North Carolina Republicans hadn't been able to override Cooper's vetoes for four years, which itself came about after the courts curtailed their prior gerrymanders for the 2018 elections. But Cotham's vote may make it easier for the GOP to carry out an agenda that could include banning most abortions, stripping Cooper of even more executive power, and placing more obstacles to voting ahead of 2024, when North Carolina could again be a swing state.

State supreme court races are a favorite topic of ours, and there are literally dozens more on the ballot in 2024, so we're previewing the top battles with Carah Ong Whaley of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Carah tells us how and why so much money has come to be spent on supreme court elections in recent decades before diving into next year's key contests, including several states where control is on the line, like Ohio, Michigan, and Montana. With the stakes high for redistricting reform, abortion rights, and democracy, progressives everywhere will want to stay up-to-date on all of these races.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/4/2162084/-Party-switch-set-to-give-North-Carolina-GOP-a-supermajority-which-may-lead-to-abortion-ban-and-more

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