(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . DEMOCRATS--BE OPTIMISTIC [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-01 I believe that we are about to enter a golden age of Democratic governance and Republican irrelevance. I have never been so optimistic about our political future. DEMOCRAT POSITIVES It’s the economy. It’s the economy. It’s the economy. Since WWII, 12 presidents have run for a second term. When there was a good (not perfect) economy, 8 (100%) were reelected. When there was a bad or lackluster economy, 4 (100%) were not reelected. Under Bidenomics the US has the best economy in the world. Unemployment is 3.8%. Inflation is 3.7%. The stock market is up 8.09% per year since Biden took office. More than 15,000,000 new businesses will have been started in the last 3 years. The real GDP is growing at a 2.4% rate (meaning after inflation is deducted). Real GDP is projected to continue growing through 2024. There are dozens of other metrics by which one can measure the US economy and no one (except a MAGA fact denier) can argue that our economy is not the best in the world.It’s abortion. It’s abortion. It’s abortion. 2. If Trump is an 800 pound gorilla, the abortion issue is Godzilla. KANSAS enshrined the right to abortion in the state constitution by a 59% majority. OHIO voted on a proxy referendum for abortion and the prochoice voters won by 56.7%. These are Republican strongholds. Every poll shows that prochoice is the majority position. 69 percent believe that abortion should be legal in the first 3 months of pregnancy. 63 percent support morning after pills. Only 13 percent favor banning abortion in most or all circumstances. (Gallup) But, instead of moderating, the Republicans are doubling down by passing ever more onerous restrictions and even acknowledging that if they win the Presidency and control of congress, they will pass a national ban on abortion. Abortion is motivating women to register to vote, to be politically active and to vote. By a large margin, women vote Democratic. This issue alone could bring a Democratic landslide. 3. Demographic changes Every year approximately 4,000,000 young people become eligible to vote. Every year approximately 2,500,000 people over 65 die. Between 2016 and 2024 approximately 32,000,000 young voters will have entered the electorate and 12,000,000 old voters will have died. In 2022, sixty eight percent (68%) of voters under 30 voted democratic. Fifty six percent (56%) of voters over 65 voted Republican. If these trends hold (and there is no indication that I have been able to find that they aren’t holding), the total 2024 electorate will have increased by 16,480,000 Democrats and 3,520,000 Republicans. (Yes, sadly, some young people are R’s.) Adjusting this total for the number of persons in the different age groups who actually vote, the 2024 electorate will have become more Democratic than that of 2016 by approximately 8,000,000 voters. 4. Undoing congressional gerrymandering Litigation is underway in a dozen states. All of these cases, except one, are by Democrats seeking more seats. It is impossible to predict how many seats the D’s will pick up, but some of the cases will certainly result in Democratic pickups. Worst case seems to be that the D’s pick up 3 seats. Best case, depending largely upon what happens in New York, is 15 seats. 5. Voters agree with Democratic policies on: Abortion Safeguarding democracy from authoritarianism Preserving/strengthening Social Security Protecting/expanding Medicare Gun violence Ukraine aid Access and availability of health care Climate change LGBTQ issues Racial justice 6. The D’s are killing special elections since Dobbs According to 538 there were 38 special elections in 2023 through August, 5. Democrats are outperforming by 10%. This means that, on average, 10% more voters voted for democrats in a special election in 2023 than voted for Democrats in the most immediate previous election in that district. This has been consistent since Dobbs. These are not polls. These are actual election results. The trend of Democratic overperformance started with Dobbs. A 10% national overperformance by Democrats would not be a landslide, it would be a slaughter. REPBILICAN NEGATIVES Donald Trump 91 felonies. He has been found by a jury to be a rapist. He has been found by a judge to have committed decades of real estate fraud. Between now and November, 2024, every day there will be a news story about some aspect of Trump’s legal quagmire. Witnesses will make deals and testify against him. Co-defendants will plead guilty. He will go to trial and be convicted (He has no defenses except delay.) The sleaze will ooze out of every corner. There is a profound difference between an allegation and a verdict or judgment. In the E. Jean Carroll case, Trump was adjudicated to be a sex offender. That is now an established fact. I cannot find any recent news about Trump supporters claiming that the E. Jean Carroll verdict was wrong. Anyone who has read Judge Erdogan’s summary judgment opinion will not claim that Trump is innocent of fraud. Trump will have several more verdicts and convictions before November 2024. The news will not be about Republican rallies or policy positions. It will be a constant drumbeat of Trump crime and fraud. 2.The Big Lie 70% of Americans believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 election including 63% of “independents”. Even 31% of Republicans say they believe the 2020 election was fair. Some Republicans who parrot the Big Lie, privately acknowledge that it is a lie. And Trump can’t help himself. Claiming that he didn’t lose (and is not therefore “a loser”) is his number one issue/talking point/rant. Trump lost in 2020. If he makes 2024 about who won in 2020, which is what he appears to be doing, he will lose it again. 3. Trump is losing his mental acuity Increasingly, Trump is saying bizarre things. E.g. That he ran against Barrak Obama for president in 2016: That Biden is going to start WW2; You can prevent California fires by watering the forest floor; JEB Bush was responsible for the Iraq war. The media can only ignore these signs of mental deterioration for so long. 4. Republicans have no policies or vision for the future Republicans have no platform, no policies, no vision of what they would affirmatively do if they controlled the government. To the extent that they have articulated anything, it is that “wokeness” is bad, Medicare and Social Security must be cut, and that a national abortion ban should be passed. 5. Bad candidates—the Trump effect MAGA candidates have caused many more electable R candidates to decline to run. The MAGA effect—prominent in the 2022 elections--requires Republican candidates to be Trump loyalists and far right radicals in order to win the Republican primaries. Then they prove to be unelectable. 6. Trump is grifting the Republican Party Rachel Maddow recently reported that 14 state republican parties were effectively bankrupt. Trump has redesigned and redirected Republican fundraising. Solicitations for donations come from Trump. The donations go to Trump—not the party. Trump spends the money on himself not the betterment of the Republican party. Once Trump has a dollar in his hand, he never lets it go, as his Georgia coconspirators are learning. It was recently reported that donations to Republican political action committees was spent by Trump on his legal fees. No one knows how much. It is reported that many reliable Republican donors have stopped giving. MY CONCLUSION As a famous sportswriter once said: “The Race Is Not Always to the Swift, Nor the Battle to the Strong; But That Is the Best Way to Bet”. Trump lost in 2020 by 7 million votes. I do not believe that there are any voters who voted Democratic in 2020 or did not vote at all who are going to vote for Trump in 2024. His approval rating is 34%; his disapproval rating is 59%. The electorate is getting younger and more Democratic. If Trump is the nominee, and Trump loses (or when he dies), his cult of personality will be shattered. So, will be the Republican party. Like the “Emperor who wore no clothes,” people will realize that without Trump, the Republican party stands for nothing at all. It will take years to rebuild. You will not find a story like this anywhere in the media today, nor will you see any similar stories before the November, 2024 election. The media cannot help itself. Its financial interest depends on people reading/watching/listening to the media. They are and will be desperate to portray 2024 as a razor thin election so that consumers will consume their stories. A story which says that 2024 will be a blowout might attract some interest for a short time, but a “no contest” election cannot keep consumers riveted to their media. I am so optimistic. Please use the comments to tell me why I am wrong (or not). 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