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What A Deal With Dems To Keep McCarthy As Speaker Might Look Like [1]

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Date: 2023-10-01  

Matt Gaetz has made clear he plans to submit a Motion To Vacate to remove McCarthy as Speaker. With all the Democrats (which is how things usually work) he would just need a few Republican votes to take McCarthy out. He almost certainly has them.

But the math changes completely if the Democrats vote to keep McCarthy in. Then McCarthy would need only a few Republican votes to keep his gavel. Governing as a Speaker beholden to Democrats to stay in power would certainly be a precarious position, but it is a theoretical possibility.

So theoretical it was almost completely discounted. Then it began to be whispered about. Democrats are not denying it as a possibility. President Biden says it’s up to Congress to work out. Nancy Pelosi has suggested that Democrats follow their leadership, Hakeem Jeffries, on the question. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says that Democrats voting for Republicans would not come free.

AOC nails it. McCarthy would have to give up something to make it worthwhile for Democrats to do such a thing. That’s part of what makes this so implausible, and still very much a long shot. Assuming the long shot comes to fruition, here’s what it could look like.

To stay in power McCarthy would have to agree to give Democrats more power. The most likely mechanism to do this would be increased power sharing in House Committees. Democrats could be given equal numbers in some Committees. That’s actually huge because reporting out of Committee requires a majority vote. An equal number of Democrats on a Committee effectively gives the Democrats veto power.

Let’s take one Committee in the news a lot lately. The House Oversight Committee is chaired by Republican Jim Comer who has used the committee to push a whole lot of lies about Hunter and Joe Biden. He is able to do so on this 47 member committee because Republicans outnumber Democrats 26-21. Change that number to 48, make it a 24-24 tie and suddenly that Committee can’t do anything (to include subpoena) without the approval of at least one Democrat. Even changing the balance to a Republican advantage of 24-23 complicates things as every Republican must be present to overrule the Democrats.

Another Committee making news is the House Judiciary Committee, Chaired by MAGA crazyman Jim Jordan. That’s a 44 person committee with a 24-20 Republican advantage. Make that 22-22 and suddenly Jim is neutered.

These examples also reflect why such a deal would be so tough. Not only would Comer and Jordan lose enormous power, so would every Republican on their Committees. His party would hate him, and it’s not as if Democrats will ever like him. His hold on the Speaker position would be quantum thin.

Another easier tradeoff McCarthy could make would be to give Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff their committee assignments back that in an absurd abuse of power he took from them. While a bitter pill for McCarthy, and other Republicans, it would be symbolic, affecting no real power, and thus not enough.

To be clear, I don’t think this scenario will happen. More likely is that Gaetz’s Motion To Vacate succeeds and Republicans blunder through another embarrassing multi-vote clown cluster to find a replacement, while Republicans cringe and Democrats drink wine.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/1/2196717/-What-A-Deal-With-Dems-To-Keep-McCarthy-As-Speaker-Might-Look-Like

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