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Putin's next target: Slovakia (Part 2) Pro-Russia party wins plurality, negotiations ahead UPDATED [1]

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Date: 2023-10-02  

Two weeks ago, In an excellent diary entitled Putin's next target: Slovakia, diarist Proponent previewed the upcoming Slovak election and warned that the election might be won by Smer (Direction), a party “totally in line with Russia, opposing any weapon deliveries, and … saying stuff like ‘war and fascism always came from the West, freedom and peace always from the East’ and that Slovakia needs to be freed from the ‘Euro-American occupation’.” The election took place on Saturday, and unfortunately, despite two exit polls showing a plurality for the pro-western Progressive Slovakia (PS) party, the pro-Putin Smer won a plurality with 24% of the vote, 5% more than PS. Smer’s leader, former PM Robert Fico, has proclaimed that “Ukrainian fascists,” not Russians, are responsible for the war and that, under his leadership, Slovakia would not send “one more bullet” to Ukraine. Fico’s election win has already been enthusiastically praised by pro-Russian Hungarian strongman Orban, who tweeted, “Guess who’s back! Always good to work together with a patriot. Looking forward to it."

Most media are viewing Fico’s return as a done deal, in light of the election results. Here on Kos, quaoar wrote: “The pro-Russian party beat the pro-Ukrainian party in parliamentary elections Saturday in Slovakia. Slovakia now joins Hungary in the Pro-Russia bloc.” A CNN commentator says that Slovakia’s voters have “have thrown Ukraine and its war with Russia under the bus.” And the New York Times wrote: “Unease in the West as Slovakia Appears Set to Join the Putin Sympathizers.”

They may be right but, with only 24% of the vote, Fico needs partners to form a governing coalition. Hlas (Voice), led by former PM Peter Pellegrini, is the party that finished in third place with 14.7% of the vote, and it holds a strong position. Hlas could join with Fico’s Smer and the nationalist SNS, which would give Fico a governing (but not constitutional) majority of parliament seats. Or, Hlas could join with PS and other smaller, pro-western parties and thwart Fico’s and Putin’s dreams. Some have suggested that PS should offer to make Pellegrini the PM if Hlas will go into coalition with PS instead of Smer. That would be a tempting offer, who wouldn’t rather be top dog than a Fico lap dog? Hlas is a split-off from Smer, and Pellegrini has no love for Fico, but the parties are ideologically rather close. Pellegrini’s position on Ukraine has not been consistent, but unlike Fico he is no Putin lover. If Hlas does opt to go into a coalition with Smer and SNS, there is some hope it will act as a brake on Fico’s pro-Moscow line.

Some have also expressed hope that, if he regains power, Fico will act pragmatically, more like Italy’s Meloni than Hungary’s Orban. Others fear that Fico will do what he says he will do and cause disunity in the EU and the western alliance, as Hungary will no longer be alone. Fico has 14 days to form a government, and it may come down to whether Smer or PS makes the most attractive offer to Pellegrini.

It’s amazing that pro-Russia Smer got as many votes as it did, considering that Slovakia itself was invaded by Russia in 1968. Short memories, I guess.

UPDATE: Negotiations have begun. According to rumors, Fico has offered Pellegrini the post of parliament chairman and has also offered Hlas’s Kmec the Foreign Affairs ministry. Hlas’s Sakova and Tomáš want a coalition with Smer and want to be Interior Minister and Social Affairs Minister, respectively. Pellegrini is non-committal, he says he is willing to negotiate with both Smer and PS, and he “guarantees” that Slovakia will not become a "black hole on the map of Europe" in the case of a Smer-Hlas government. Pellegrini claims that the possibility of him becoming prime minister has not been discussed yet.

As for his kingmaker role, Pellegrini admitted, “I’m enjoying this a little bit. Before we didn’t smell too good to them, as if we were harmful, and now they want to negotiate with us. [But] I don’t take offense, I’m a pragmatist.”

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/2/2196966/-Putin-s-next-target-Slovakia-Part-2-Pro-Russia-party-wins-plurality?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=community_spotlight&pm_medium=web

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