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What Happens if a Judge Does Jail Trump for Contempt? [1]

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Date: 2023-10-03  

There have been lots of comments here about judges being afraid to lock Trump up for contempt of court — for violating their orders not to harass and intimidate witness, judges, prosecutors, and now court clerks. There are worries that this is just what he wants, to be able to portray himself as a martyr, as suffering just as Jesus suffered (yes, he’s compared his experiences to that), or that it will move his base to violence. But I want to speculate here that the consequences of being jailed, even overnight or for a weekend, might make things worse for Trump, not for us.

First, let us stipulate (IANAL but I can sling the lingo) that Trump fears more than almost anything else being put behind bars. (The other thing he fears most is being seen as less rich than he claims he is — which is why he’s attending the civil fraud trial, so he can glower at everybody.) Just having a judge tell a bailiff to take Trump away is probably enough to send him into paroxsyms of fear and trembling and other kinds of very visible angst, none of which will do anything for his image. If he actually has to stand at the door of a cell, he will likely break down completely. At the very least, having the threat made real will get him to behave, for a while, anyway. When he slips back, show him the cell door again, have him sit there for two hours. Then say that the next time it will be 4 hours, then 8, etc.

Second, there is the concern that his followers will react violently. Well, yes, but that threat exists no matter what happens. The sooner it happens, the less organized it will be, the easier it will be to put down, the longer the country will have to contemplate the consequences of letting Trump anywhere near power again. And if it doesn’t happen, the MAGA crowd will be mocked for being, as they say in Texas, all hat and no cattle. Further, whatever half-assed half-steps are taken will help the authorities identify those who need careful watching.

Trump will of course complain about free speech and election interference, but he’s doing that anyway. (Has anyone pointed out lately that NY AG James filed this lawsuit against Trump two months before he announced he was running?) Even so, I strongly suspect that once he’s spent some time actually being held to account for some action, he will behave himself for a while. And then we’ll go through it all over again, until the country gets tired of him.

The man simply cannot be allowed to continue running roughshod over our judicial system like a little boy smashing up a toy store because they’re out of the game he wanted.

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