(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Morning Digest: Pennsylvania's most powerful election denier draws a prominent challenger [1] ['Daily Kos Staff'] Date: 2023-10-05 The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team. Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast x Embedded Content Leading Off ● PA-10: Longtime local TV news anchor Janelle Stelson, who stepped down last month after 27 years working for NBC affiliate WGAL in Lancaster, announced Wednesday that she would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge far-right Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th District. Stelson joined the already-busy race to take on the Republican, who is one of the most prominent Big Lie spreaders in America, the same week that Army veteran Bob Forbes kicked off his own campaign against the Freedom Caucus chairman. Located in the Harrisburg and York areas, the 10th backed Donald Trump 51-47 in 2020. Stelson, who moderated debates between Perry and his Democratic opponents in both 2018 and 2020, will likely start out with plenty of name recognition in the district: The entire seat is located in the Harrisburg media market, which is served by WGAL. However, the new candidate lives in the Lancaster suburbs, a dark red area that is represented by 11th District GOP Rep. Lloyd Smucker rather than by Perry. (Lancaster and York have a famous rivalry known as the "War of the Roses," though unlike the eponymous 15th-century English civil war, this conflict revolves around high school football.) Stelson, though, told PennLive.com that she's lived in various communities in what's now the 10th District during her long career, saying, "I'll put my knowledge of people around here up against Congressman Perry or anybody else running." The former anchor, who was a registered Republican until February, added, "I think every 'normal' Republican has been feeling a little bit disenchanted with their party for quite some time now … And you know, it all kind of adds up cumulatively." Forbes, meanwhile, is also a first-time candidate, though his wife serves on the governing body for the small Harrisburg suburb of Camp Hill. PoliticsPA writes that Forbes did several overseas deployments, including to Afghanistan and Iraq, and he became a local substitute teacher after retiring in 2018. Stelson and Forbes launched their respective campaigns the month after two other contenders, businessman John Broadhurst and Marine veteran Mike O'Brien, also got in. The Democratic field also includes Harrisburg City Council member Shamaine Daniels, who lost to Perry 54-46 last year, and Rick Coplen, who unsuccessfully sought the nomination against Daniels. However, neither repeat contender had more than $20,000 banked at the end of June. ABC 27 also reported last week that Blake Lynch, who works as an executive at central Pennsylvania's NPR affiliate WITF, is also considering running. Perry, who was first elected in 2012 to what was a safely red constituency, has long been one of the more extreme Republicans in the House, and he did nothing to moderate himself after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the GOP-drawn gerrymander in 2018 and left him with a more competitive seat. Perry only turned back George Scott 51-49 after a surprisingly expensive battle in that blue wave year, but he prevailed 53-47 in 2020 against a more prominent Democrat, then-Auditor General Eugene DePasquale. Democrats, including DePasquale, hoped that the 2022 round of redistricting would leave Perry with an even more competitive seat, but they were disappointed when the state's highest court made few changes to the 10th. DePasquale ended up sitting the race out and Daniels struggled to raise money even after the FBI confiscated the incumbent's cell phone as part of an investigation into Perry's role in attempts to overturn Joe Biden's victory. Perry, who has not been charged with anything, won by 8 points in 2022, but Democrats are arguing that the party's better performance at the top of the ticket that year bodes poorly for his future prospects. According to data from the state election officials, Republican Mehmet Oz carried the 10th by a tiny 49-48 as he was losing the Senate race to John Fetterman, while now-Gov. Josh Shapiro defeated Republican Doug Mastriano 55-43 that same night. Stelson is hoping those latter results will give her a path to victory over Perry, and she launched her effort by linking him to his fellow election denier Mastriano. The Downballot ● It’s been an unprecedented week in politics as (now former) Speaker Kevin McCarthy was booted out of the Speaker’s chair. 538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins us to break down the fallout, including how it might affect the 2024 race for the House and if McCarthy might resign and trigger a special election for his Congressional seat. We also talk about the good special election trends for Democrats this year and how to incorporate polling into your thinking about elections. Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also cover the passing of California Senator Dianne Feinstein and her appointed replacement, Laphonza Butler of EMILY’s List. They also discuss the return of a number of 2022 GOP losers, including Arizona’s Kari Lake, Michigan’s James Craig, and Ohio’s J.R. Majewski, all of whom are announcing new campaigns for 2024. Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. 3Q Fundraising Senate ● AZ-Sen: Election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake has filed FEC paperwork ahead of her planned Oct. 10 announcement rally. Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a fellow Republican who is suing Lake for defamation, responded to the news by tweeting, "Just a reminder that if you really believed that the 2020 and 2022 elections were rigged and controlled by the people behind the curtain, thereby depriving the candidate of all agency, you wouldn't rationally run for election in 2024." ● NJ-Sen: Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez responded to NBC's questions about his reelection plans Wednesday by saying, "When I make that decision, I will announce it," comments that came right after he insisted, "I'm not going to jeopardize any seat in New Jersey under any circumstances." Menendez's corruption trial is scheduled to begin May 6, which is less than a month before the Democratic primary. ● PA-Sen: Quinnipiac University finds Democratic incumbent Bob Casey posting a 50-44 lead against wealthy Republican Dave McCormick even as the sample backs Donald Trump 47-45 against Joe Biden. This is the first poll we've seen since McCormick, who has no credible primary opposition on the horizon, launched his campaign last month with broad support from state and national Republicans. Governors ● KY-Gov: The far-right Club for Growth on Wednesday publicized a late-September survey from WPA Intelligence that shows Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear leading its endorsed candidate, Republican Daniel Cameron, 48-42, which isn't much different from the 48-40 edge the incumbent enjoyed in an unreleased poll from almost a month ago. The Club, though, still insists that Beshear remains vulnerable because he hasn't cleared a majority of the vote in this two-way contest. The last survey we saw was an early September Beshear internal from Hart Research Associates that found him ahead 51-42. House ● IL-17: Businessman Ray Estrada dropped out of the GOP primary Tuesday ahead of what the Pantagraph's Brenden Moore says is former state Circuit Judge Joseph McGraw's planned Oct. 11 launch. Moore also relays that McGraw is "believed to be the preferred candidate of" the NRCC against freshman Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen in this 53-45 Biden seat. ● IN-04: Republican Rep. Jim Baird declared Tuesday that he'd seek reelection, a move that comes almost two weeks after Howey Politics relayed speculation that he would make a late retirement announcement so his son could succeed him without facing any serious intra-party opposition. "I will continue to fight with my conservative colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives for life, liberty and opportunity for every Hoosier I represent," said Baird, who represents a dark red seat in the western part of the state. We'll see if that appeases people like Howey's unnamed source, who asserted weeks ago that the incumbent was "definitely not going to end up running." ● NY-01: Nancy Goroff, who was the 2020 Democratic nominee in the last version of this eastern Long Island seat, tells Politico she's decided to challenge freshman GOP Rep. Nick LaLota. Another new candidate this week is former Cuomo administration official Craig Herskowitz, who alleges he was fired for cooperating in the sexual harassment investigation against his old boss. Herskowitz, whose retaliation lawsuit was dismissed in January, quietly filed with the FEC last month; the contender, who stepped down as a New York City administrative law judge, also says he's raised $100,000 ahead of his Wednesday announcement. Former state Sen. Jim Gaughran previously launched his bid in August. Goroff was the head of the chemistry department at ​​Stony Brook University when she launched her campaign to unseat GOP incumbent Lee Zeldin in the old 1st, and she would have been the first woman in Congress with a Ph.D. in natural science. Goroff, who self-funded a total of $2.2 million, narrowly outpaced 2018 nominee Perry Gershon in the primary, and major outside groups from both parties ended up spending in the general election. The area that made up the 1st was a longtime battleground, and Democrats hoped that it would return to form after backing Donald Trump 54-42 in 2016. Zeldin, though, won his expensive bout with Goroff 55-45 as Trump was taking his seat by a smaller 51-47 spread. The current version of the 1st would have supported Joe Biden in 2020 by a tiny 49.5-49.3, but Long Island once again swung hard to the right after that election. Zeldin defeated Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul here 57-43 according to numbers from Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, and LaLota scored a similar 56-44 victory over County Legislator Bridget Fleming. There's a chance, however, that the state's court-imposed congressional map could change depending on the result of a pending lawsuit. Legislatures ● OR State House: The recall effort against Democratic state Rep. Paul Holvey went down in flames Tuesday, and ballots counted as of Thursday morning show the "no" side ahead 90-10. It's possible that the margin will change as more mail-in ballots are counted, but not enough to come close to justifying the more than $300,000 that the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 555 spent to try to oust the incumbent. Holvey has long been one of labor's most ardent allies in state government, but Local 555 tried to unseat him after the committee he chaired this year refused to advance a bill that would have opened the door toward allowing cannabis workers to unionize. Holvey argued that he was advised by the legislature's legal team that the policy violated federal law, and the electorate in this dark blue Eugene seat wasn't persuaded by Local 555's insinuations that he was instead acting due to pressure from a marijuana company that frequently donates to Democrats. Holvey, who retained the support of the state's other major unions, celebrated his win Tuesday night by declaring, "I hope that members of UFCW 555 hold UFCW's leadership and individuals behind this recall accountable for wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars from their dues, without making a single worker's life better." Local 555, meanwhile, says it's trying to place a measure that would let cannabis workers unionize on the statewide ballot. Mayors and County Leaders ● Memphis, TN Mayor: Memphis on Thursday holds its nonpartisan race to succeed termed-out Mayor Jim Strickland as leader of this reliably blue city, and it takes a simple plurality to win the 17-way contest. There's been little independent or reliable polling here, but both the Commercial Appeal and the Memphis Flyer list the same four candidates as the frontrunners: Shelby County Sheriff Floyd Bonner; former Shelby County Commissioner Van Turner; Downtown Memphis Commission CEO Paul Young; and former Mayor Willie Herenton. All four of these contenders are African American Democrats; Strickland, by contrast, became this majority-Black city's first white mayor in 24 years following his 2015 victory over his fellow Democrat, Mayor A C Wharton. Bonner, writes the Flyer's Jackson Baker, looked like the frontrunner at the start of the campaign, but progressives have blamed him for the high number of inmate deaths that have taken place during his tenure. And while Bonner is a Democrat, he has the support of the local GOP as well as the local police and firefighters unions. Turner, who is a former head of both the county Democratic Party and NAACP, picked up several high-profile endorsements from local party members ahead of Election Day. Turner has in his corner Rep. Steve Cohen; Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris; District Attorney Steve Mulroy; and state Rep. Justin Pearson, who became one of the most famous state legislators in the country after the GOP expelled him in April for participating in a protest in favor of gun safety legislation on the chamber floor. The candidate also has the backing of AFSCME Local 1733, which represents city workers. Young, meanwhile, has outraised his many opponents, which Baker says is due to major support from "established commercial interests." The candidate, who has long been involved in city government but has never run for office, has argued he'd be the most prepared mayor in history while also representing change. That's a very different pitch than what's coming from Herenton, who served from 1991 until he resigned in 2009 ahead of what would prove to be a disastrous Democratic primary bid against Cohen. Herenton, who was the first Black mayor in city history, tried to get his old job back in 2019, but he lost to Strickland in a 62-29 landslide. The 83-year-old contender has raised little for his latest effort, but he may have a large enough base to put him over the top. Also in the running are state Rep. Karen Camper, businessman J.W. Gibson II, Memphis-Shelby County School Board member Michelle McKissack, and several others. So, why does it take just a plurality to win? Bolts' Camille Squires recently investigated this question and writes that a federal judge struck down the runoff system in 1991 "to prevent white residents from coalescing to block Black candidates." Herenton that year went on to unseat incumbent Richard Hackett, who was white, 49.44-49.38―a margin of 142 votes―with the balance going to a perennial candidate. The electorate has become significantly more Black over the ensuing time, and the voters have twice tried to end the current system. A ballot measure to institute instant-runoff voting passed 71-29 in 2008, but Squires says the city didn't try to implement it for another nine years. Mulroy, who was not yet district attorney, blamed the long delay on "obstruction" by "people in power." The state's elections chief went on to complain the city's plan violated state law, and while the city council placed a measure on the 2018 ballot to repeal ranked-choice, voters rejected it 54-46. The GOP legislature, however, last year passed a bill banning instant-runoff voting in the state. Local activists soon proposed another ballot measure that would require a runoff for a later date in races where no one earned a majority, but the city council voted against placing it on the ballot. City Council chair Martavius Jones has proposed a new 2024 referendum that would introduce party primaries, telling Squires, "Some of the feedback that I've received from people has been that there are just way too many people in the race." ● Wilmington, DE Mayor: Termed-out Gov. John Carney unexpectedly responded to Wilmington Mayor Mike Purzycki's Wednesday retirement announcement by revealing that he was interested in running next year to succeed his fellow Democrat as leader of the First State's largest city. "Tracey and I have lived in Wilmington for thirty years, and I care deeply about our city," the governor said. "While I am focused on serving as Delaware's Governor, it's something I'm seriously considering." The Delaware News Journal writes, "It would be the first time, in recent memory, a Delaware politician has sought this office after serving as governor." Ad Roundup [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/5/2197439/-Morning-Digest-Pennsylvania-s-most-powerful-election-denier-draws-a-prominent-challenger?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_11&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/