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Michigan State House: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-10-06  

Up next in my state legislative summary posts (for 2024 ratings) is the Michigan House of Representatives, which I just looked at last month. A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”).

This post will be very short, as there are no rating changes or candidate updates. However, it should be noted that in HD 76 incumbent Democrat Angela Witwer is currently under scrutiny for ethics/rules violations. In particular, she hosted a baby shower in the State Capitol building several months ago, which is apparently against house rules. While I’m not changing the rating now, I could see potentially shifting it in the future (from Lean Democrat to Toss Up) if Witwer’s issues continue to be a discussion point.

My overall rating for the chamber is a Toss Up. Currently, the balance of the chamber is 56D – 54R, so Democrats cannot afford to have a net loss of any seats, as a net loss of two seats or more would give the Republicans the majority in the chamber, with a net loss of exactly one seat producing a tied chamber, resulting in a power-sharing agreement. Currently there are nine toss-up seats, six of which are Dem-held and three of which are Republican-held. Assuming both parties hold onto all the seats they are favored in, Dems will keep the control if they win at least six (out of nine) toss-ups, while Republicans will flip the chamber if they win at least five (out of nine) toss-ups. Both scenarios seem reasonable, as does a tied chamber, which would correspond to a 5D – 4R split amongst the toss-ups. In terms of other competitive seats (those in the “Lean” or “Likely” categories) both parties are similarly exposed, with Democrats defending ten of these seats and Republicans defending eleven of them.

It should also be pointed out that a power-sharing agreement might temporarily occur before the 2024 elections. Two incumbent house Democrats are currently running for mayoral races next month and if both win their respective races, there would be two vacancies, bringing the chamber to a 54D – 54R tie until special elections are held and the winners of these elections are seated in the chamber. However, Dems shouldn’t have any trouble winning these special elections, as both of these seats are safely Democratic.

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