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Ukraine Must Target Russia's Lifeblood [1]

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Date: 2023-10-06  

War is just as much about money as it is about bullets and money is the lifeblood that keeps the bullets firing. For Ukraine to pursue the war effectively, they need to cut off Russia’s means to continue earning money from abroad and that means targetting their oil infrastructure.

This is a pretty fraught decision however as it will impact numerous countries including ones that are neutral such as India and there is a real concern that disrupting the energy flow to these countries will push them to Russia’s corner. But I think we are well past this point as this war is now over a year and a half old and every country in the world has chosen sides.

With the strong sanctions the West enacted against them, Russia is now in a vulnerable position as they have lost all pricing power they had with China and India, currently their largest customers. Even while Russia is able to sell to China and India, they demand hefty price discounts for the oil and natural gas they receive as they know that Russia is unable to sell to Western markets.

We know that Ukraine is now able to launch drone attacks within Russia proper. Thus, these drone attacks can also attack key transit hubs and refining facilities especially in areas far removed from the combat area such as Russia’s central and eastern areas. Russia’s energy infrastructure sprawls over the entire country and is impossible to defend with anti-drone defenses. Even a minor disruption in energy flows at this point will have cascading effects as the Russian economic crisis is exacerbated and revenues dry up even faster also let’s not forget that Putin has used oil and gas revenues to keep his siloviki allies beholden to him. Also, if Russia is seen as an unreliable supplier then their customers will be forced to consider purchasing oil from other, more expensive suppliers.

Neutral countries should see that relying on Russia for their energy needs and paying blood money to Russia is a risk. Not to mention that Ukraine does have a moral justification as the moment that the first Russian missile hit the grain facilities near Odessa, all bets were off when it came to Russia’s energy infrastructure. Russia escalated the economic war, but Ukraine now has the means to retaliate. It’s as if the senior Russian leadership keeps forgetting that the enemy can hit back and is surprised when they do.

While we in the West believe that sanctions can affect Russia they are not enough to change the course that Putin and his Siloviki cronies have chosen. Yet, if Ukraine can capitalize on the sanctions and use them as a force multiplier with their own attacks on Russia's remaining avenues of revenue, then those two forces together may be enough to bring Russia to its knees and bring a swifter end to this terrible conflict.

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