(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Just the Stats, Man: Weekly Canvass Wrap-up from AZ, GA, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA & WI [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-07 But we also find their literature, usually in the gutters of the street. We still have a 50-50 (Dem/unaffiliated) voter universe, depending upon the state, but we walk by a lot of GOP/conserva-tive homes. This week, our volunteers saw or found evidence of conservative canvassing teams in Ohio and Arizona . So their presence is diminishing (although not in Ohio). Since March 4, Hope Springs from Field volunteers have been knocking on doors (as weather permitted) in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia. These all are critical states that will determine who is President and which party controls the Senate in 2025. So, not much at stake. 2,543 volunteers came out to knock on doors in their states last Saturday (this is a slight uptick from last week). We continue to knock on doors with our systemic Deep Organizing, conversational approach designed to engage voters at their doors and elicit valuable information that will help Democrats during our Fall 2024 (and, in the case of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, 2023) GOTV efforts. We also feel like this approach is a great introduction to canvassing for the volunteers who have never knocked on doors before, and especially for those volunteers who initially feel intimidated by the activity. We make it easy! Volunteers feel great about it. Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 190,067 doors (3,881 more than the prior weekend). While we have stopped canvassing in three states (and this was our last weekend in Montana), our volunteer numbers are still pretty steady in the states we are still knocking. The one thing i have noticed is that we are not seeing parents bringing their young, school-age children this month. This is most noticeable in Ohio. But you knock with the people who show up, that is just a casual observation. Volunteers got to talk to 14,370 voters this week (342 more than the prior weekend). They opened the door and at least took our lit. A very high percentage of them will respond to our query about whether they are registered to vote at this address. Anywhere between 55% to 65% of the voters we actually talk to will agree to answer questions on our Issues Survey. The peak was definitely the Saturday before the Ohio special election, but we think that number is about to go up again. But our number 1 piece of advise (something all our organizers are supposed to start with) when training volunteers is, Smile! When i lead trainings, i tell them to “Smile, because no one you talk to today will remember a single thing you say. But they will always remember the impression you left.” Hope Springs from Field volunteers walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 9,038 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part. By far, the highest response numbers always are in the second question, about what issue voters think “is most urgent” at this time (Q2). The “send a message to your Member” (Q5) is also very popular. And we are getting a lot of responses to the “Is there a single issue that will determine how you vote” question (Q7), too — something we added in 2022 because we were finding voters answering differently to the Top Issue question than to what was actually driving their vote. This is incredibly valuable information for those who do persuasion canvassing next year! Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do. We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year), and how their governor is doing. After the primaries, we also ask about the Democratic Senate and nominees. But a very high percentage of the voters who provide responses to the Issues Survey will tell us what they think about their president, or senator or governor. But especially president. In Ohio, we ask a supplemental question related to Issue 1 about the constitutional amendment on Ohio’s ballots in November ensuring Reproductive Freedom in the state. We took a Summer break in Arizona and resumed knocking on doors this month. 52% of the voters we talked to on Saturday had a favorable impression of President Biden. 3% of voters approved of the job Senator Sinema was doing. We didn’t have any volunteers (or voters) ask us this quarter about how to end their monthly contributions to Sinema. We also ask about the likely Democratic nominee for Senate and Ruben Gallego’s job approval was 55% this week. Lots of rumors about both Karen Lake jumping into the Senate race and Sinema deciding to run for re-election. Obviously, Arizona is a critical race for both the Presidential and the Senate next year. 53% also had a favorable impression of Governor Hobbs last week. In Georgia, we see that there is no Senate race next year, but it remains a key component of our Electoral College map. We also have a core group of volunteers devoted to keeping Georgia blue in face of its history. Plus we are still finding voters who need photo IDs, and we have been putting together Photo ID days at Registrar’s Offices in the state for voters to get their free Voter IDs. But our organizers and volunteers choose to continuing canvassing efforts in Georgia. 54% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. Georgia doesn’t have a Senate election this cycle, our efforts here is a pure Electoral College play. 42% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. When we started knocking on doors in the Atlanta metro region, Kemp’s approval increased in comparison to the results we saw last year in Georgia’s Black Belt. We continue knocking on doors in Michigan since it has both an Open Senate seat and is a key Electoral College state in 2024. Among the voters we talked to last Saturday, 54% had a favorable opinion of President Biden. 56% had a positive view of Gov. Whitmer. Both volunteers and voters have been asking about when we will include a question about (the Democratic nominee in) the (open) Senate race. The answer is after the primary (or Slotkin is the only Democrat left in the race). But voters (and volunteers) are starting to take an increased interest in that race. In Montana, 47% of the voters we talked to last Saturday approved of the job President Biden is doing. 11% disapproved. 67% approved of the job Senator Tester is doing, while 5% disapprove. 33% approved of what Governor Gianforte is doing, while 39% disapproved. In my last diary, said that “organizations such as yourself, need to put a lot more effort to save my state.” As a grassroots organization, it is hard to know what more we can do. But we hear this complaint, in some variation or another, all the time. Save Montana! Save Texas! Save Florida! etc. Frustration all around. But we are focused on Senate elections (as well as the Electoral College), not in saving Democrats writ large. We are a mere one piece of the puzzle. In Nevada, 55% of the voters Hope Springs from Field volunteers talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing while 7% disapproved. 66% had a favorable impression of the job Jacky Rosen was doing; 6% disapproved. 30% of voters approved of the job Governor Lombardo was doing and 38% disapproved. But Nevada is a great example of what happens when the state Democratic party loses its way. Lombardo beat an incumbent, Democratic governor in large part because the state party was confused, vindictive and really out of its depth. The adults are back in charge, as near as outside orgs can tell. But the difference between last year’s organizing and this year’s is really clear at this level. In Ohio, 53% of the voters we talked to on Saturday approved of the job President Biden was doing. 8% expressed disapproval. 67% approved of the job Sherrod Brown was doing; 7% disapproved. 28% approved of the job that Governor DeWine was doing and 42% disapproved. You might note that Brown got a considerable bump and DeWine took quite a dive — while we were doing a GOTV/Issues Canvass in the month leading up to the August 8th election. This was because we narrowed our focus and included more Democrats in our canvassing universe for the special election. But there’s a lot of stability in these numbers now. For now. We remain focused on the possibility that Ohio’s Congressional Map may be redone. “New Ohio Statehouse and U.S. Congressional maps are due this year, just like they were last year. But political scientists in the state aren’t holding out hope that major changes are coming.” “In-fighting among Republicans has made any agreement at all uncertain” but we definitely want to protect the small gains we made there last year. The Ohio Supreme Court asked attorneys on both sides of the redistricting debate to argue the impact of a North Carolina case on Ohio's map and we await their decision. In the Pittsburgh suburbs, the voters we spoke with gave Biden a 50% job approval rating; 9% disapproved. 65% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Bob Casey was doing in the Senate and only 7% disapproved. Governor Shapiro received a 51% approval rating last week. 9% disapproved. Pittsburgh is clearly a more difficult area for Democrats than Philadelphia is. Still, Democrats have won the four special elections in the Pittsburgh area and that is something. 52% of the voters we talked to in Wisconsin approved of the job President Biden is doing while 7% disapproved. 68% of them approved of the job Tammy Baldwin is doing in the Senate and 4% disapproved. This may have something to do with the fact that the Republicans who were being recruited to run against her have passed on the race. We are sure that her prospective opponents have polled to determine their chances and have found the results disappointing. 49% of voters approved of the job Governor Evers is doing while 12% disapproved. If you support our grassroots efforts to register voters at their doors, strengthen voter support for Democrats, turn out voters and protect the vote, please help: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization Each week, we ask voters what is the “most urgent issue facing” us today. Lots of concern about the Economy and Rising Prices. Political Stability continues to motivate voters, not just on this question (Top Issue facing the nation). Georgia seems particularly affected by those, or, more specifically, the Atlanta metro region. It seems to be connected to the Trump Trials. Labor Issues are also very prominent right now. 28 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing. I write forms but most often these are completed on a tablet from their state’s election administrative website. Another 219 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. We differentiate between the two, though, because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering. You can see that the number of voters registered is not a function of the number of volunteers present or doors knocked. Clearly, they help, but there’s no guarantee that more doors equals more voters registered. Even though registering voters is a primary rationale behind early canvassing, it is not the only one. Just wanted to point that out. We collected 459 Constituent Service Request Forms last week (a drop off from last week!). In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder. We continue to walk with Incident Reports, and we ask people who say they are concerned about the upcoming general election if they want to fill one out. Last Saturday, 9 voters filled out Incident Reports, detailing acts of voter intimidation or voter suppression they witnessed in a prior election. We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity. By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions. I am aware of the volume of data presented in this post. But it is the result of the data we collect at the door, to be entered in VAN and accessible by all Democratic candidates who utilize VAN this Fall. The focus on the “horse-race” aspect of this data is unintentional, because the data is what the it is. It is useful for Democratic candidates and provides paths to victory for data-driven candidates (which most campaigns are these days). We really do need financial support to continue these efforts. If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address, as well. Thank you for your support. This work depends on you! 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