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Nevada State Assembly Districts (2024): AD 21, AD 22, AD 29, AD 35, AD 41 [1]

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Date: 2023-10-10  

Up next is my state legislative series is the Nevada State Assembly (the state’s lower chamber). Currently, the balance of the chamber is 28D – 14R* meaning that Dems can afford to have a net loss of at most six seats in order to maintain control of the chamber, with a net loss of eight or more seats resulting in Republican control and a net loss of exactly seven seats producing a tied chamber. In addition, Democrats cannot afford to have a net loss of any size to keep their supermajority, as they currently have an exact two-thirds majority in the chamber (the bare minimum threshold). In Nevada, the current districts generally resemble (to some degree) the pre-2022 districts of the same corresponding number, making election results of the old districts fairly meaningful. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. Unless stated otherwise, I assuming that the incumbents are running for reelection. While some assembly members are ineligible to run again due to term limits, this isn’t especially relevant here, given that none of these members represent competitive districts.

*Technically, one of the Dem-held seats recently became vacant making the actual balance 27D – 14R. For simplicity, I am treating the vacated seat as still being Dem-held, given that the district is reliably blue and that the legislature is not meeting again prior to the 2024 election.

Today, I will look at five assembly districts: AD 21, AD 22, AD 29, AD 35, and AD 41, all of which are entirely contained in Clark County and cover Las Vegas’s southern suburbs.

Nevada Assembly District 21

NV AD 21 contains the western parts of Henderson, as well as parts of the community of Silverado Ranch. AD 21 swung a few points to the right at the presidential level in recent years under the pre-2022 boundaries, with both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden carrying the district by about 5 points, after Barack Obama had carried it by a somewhat larger margin of just over 9 points in 2012. The district was generally competitive at the state assembly level, with Democrat Andy Eisen winning the open seat by a little more than 3 points in 2012 and Republican Derek Armstrong flipping the seat in 2014, as he defeated Eisen by just under 4 points. However, Democrat Ozzie Fumo was able to flip the seat back in 2016, when he defeated Armstrong by between 4 and 5 points and was fairly easily reelected by about 12.5 points in 2016. The 2018 assembly race was quite close, though, with Democrat Elaine Marzola narrowly winning the open seat by 4 points. The 2022 redistricting made AD 21 a few points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to between 6 and 7 points. Marzola held onto the district in 2022, winning by a little less than 5 points, just slightly improving over her 2020 margin. The district should be competitive again this cycle, given how close it has been in the past. I’m classifying AD 21 as a Toss Up.

Nevada Assembly District 22

NV AD 22 encompasses southern and eastern Henderson, including the neighborhood of McDonald Highlands. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 22 was a decently Republican-leaning district that had been trending very slightly towards the Dems, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by nearly 10 points to supporting Donald Trump by nearly 9 points in 2016 and by a little more than 7 points in 2020. Republican Keith Pickard easily held onto the district in 2016, winning the open seat by about 17 points, though the 2018 state assembly race was somewhat competitive, with Republican Melissa Hardy winning the open seat by between 8 and 9 points. Hardy ran unopposed in 2020, with Democrats failing to contest the district. AD 22 became a few points redder as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to 9 points. In 2022, Hardy easily won reelection by a large 17-point margin. Hardy should be fairly safe, but the district still warrants notice, given that it was within single digits at the presidential level in 2020. I’m classifying AD 22 as Likely Republican.

Nevada Assembly District 29

NV AD 29 covers northern parts of Henderson, such as the neighborhood of Whitney Ranch. AD 29 was a very closely divided district under the pre-2022 boundaries, with both Obama (in 2012) and Biden carrying the district by between 2 and 3 points and Trump very narrowly carrying it by less than a percentage point in 2016. Republican Stephen Silberkraus flipped the seat in 2014, as he defeated (appointed) incumbent Democrat Lesley Cohen by between 9 and 10 points, but the Democrats flipped the seat back in 2016, with Cohen very narrowly defeating Silberkraus by less than a percentage point in a rematch. The subsequent assembly races were also quite competitive, with Cohen winning reelection by just over 5 points in 2018 (in another rematch with Silberkraus) and by about 2.5 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made AD 29 several points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to between 8 and 9 points. Cohen won reelection in 2022 by just over 6 points, improving on her previous margins, which isn’t too surprising given the more favorable boundaries. The seat will be open this cycle, as Cohen is opting not to run for reelection. Democrat Joe Dalia, who unsuccessfully challenged Cohen in the primary last cycle, is running again. The district should be competitive, especially given the lack of incumbent, but the Democrats should still have an edge, considering Biden’s decent margin. I’m classifying AD 29 as Lean Democrat.

Nevada Assembly District 35

NV AD 35 encompasses parts of the unincorporated community of Enterprise. AD 35 was a competitive Dem leaning district under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Obama (in 2012) and Clinton both carrying it by between 7 and 8 points and Biden carrying it by around 6 points. The 2012 state assembly race was fairly close, with Democrat James Healey winning the open seat by just under 5 points. Like several other seats covered here, the district flipped to the Republicans in 2014, with Brent Jones defeating Healey by nearly 7 points, and flipped back to the Democrats in 2016, with Justin Watkins defeating Jones by nearly 9 points. Democrat Michelle Gorelow held onto the district in 2018, winning the open seat by about 10 points (though it should be pointed out that there was an Independent candidate on the ballot who received about 10% of the total vote) and was reelected by a narrower margin of just under 5 points in 2020. AD 35 became slightly redder as a result of 2022 redistricting, with Biden’s margin shrinking to a little less than 5 points. The 2022 assembly race was very close, with Gorelow just narrowly winning reelection by 1.5 points and with under 50% of the vote, as there was a Libertarian candidate on the ballot. In addition, the district is open this cycle, as Gorelow is opting not to run for reelection. AD 35 is arguably the most vulnerable Dem-held seat, given how close the most recent state house was and the lack of an incumbent. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up.

Nevada Assembly District 41

NV AD 41 is located next to the previously covered ADs 21 and 35 (west of the former and east of the latter). AD 41 moved a few points to the right at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, going from supporting Obama by between 9 and 10 points in 2012 to supporting Clinton by a slightly narrower 7-point margin and Biden by an even narrower margin of between 5 and 6 points. Again, the district flipped the GOP at the state assembly level in 2014, but Democrat Sandra Jauregui was able to flip the seat back in 2016, winning the open race by around 6.5 points. Jauregui was reelected by a slightly larger 9-point margin in 2018 and by a narrower margin of about 5.5 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made AD 41 very slightly bluer, with Biden’s margin increasing by less than a percentage point. Jauregui held onto the seat in 2022, roughly matching her 2020 margin. The district should be competitive again this cycle, but Jauregui should be favored somewhat. I’m classifying AD 41 as Lean Democrat.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the current districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

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