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Why is it good for ISR and USA to do what Hamas wants? (The Sith want bad things - don't comply!) [1]

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Date: 2023-10-11  

“Hamas knew that Israel would inevitably respond with an intense military assault on Gaza”

is something I have heard repeatedly, here and elsewhere over the past 4 days, when I advocate against a primarily military response. Of course this is true, Hamas did predict this — anyone this side of Coruscant could predict that Netanyahu would respond to (despicable, evil terrorist) provocation by being provoked.

But I’m fundamentally confused by this reasoning — surely “Hamas expected this” has to be a reason opposed to that militarist response? If Hamas knew this would be the result, and they took the causal action that triggered it, that means this is the result Hamas leaders wanted. And even at a glance, it’s easy to see why they would— Hamas (like extremism generally) thrives on desperation, so devastating military assaults against their captive population are good for their terrorist business.

Conceivably Hamas are really diabolical masterminds, like Sith Master Level, and this situation is a Jedi trap, where they win no matter what we do. Even so, probably the “they are barbarians” “we will bomb them like never before” anger is just straightforwardly the Dark Side talking? Probably the ‘good guys’ taking a less classically-Dark-Side response is at least less of a strategic win for the Sith than if we literally just directly channel the Dark Side? Also, honestly, they probably aren’t as clever as Emperor Palpatine.

So, again: why is it a good idea to give Hamas what they want? If Hamas are the enemy — and surely they are — then isn’t the wise and strategic action to fake them out, and do something other than what they want? Hamas seems as close as realistically possible to a literally negative value set / inverted utility functions. So isn’t it basically just true that if Hamas thinks it’s good, we think it’s bad? Ergo if they think this militarist response is good, don’t we automatically disagree?

H/T AndySchmookler for the diary earlier this week doing consequentialist analysis of revenge in the current context

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