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Nevada State Assembly Districts (2024): AD 2, AD 4, AD 9, AD 13, AD 37 [1]

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Date: 2023-10-12  

Today, I will look at five more Nevada assembly districts: AD 2, AD 4, AD 9, AD 13, and AD 37, all of which are contained entirely in Clark County and cover the western suburbs of Las Vegas, with many of the districts being partially contained within the city limits.

Nevada Assembly District 2

NV AD 2 encompasses parts of Las Vegas, such as Summerlin, as well as the community of Summerlin South. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 2 trended somewhat towards the Democrats at the presidential level, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by about 7 points to supporting Donald Trump by a narrower margin of under 3 points in 2016 and by about 2 points in 2020. At the state assembly level, Republican John Hambrick was reelected by a moderately competitive margin of just over 8 points in 2016 and by an even closer margin of just under 4 points in 2018. (Note that Hambrick ran unopposed in both 2012 and 2014). However, the 2020 assembly race wasn’t especially competitive, with Republican Heidi Kasama winning the open seat by 10.5 points. The 2022 redistricting made AD 2 very slightly bluer, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to about a percentage point. Kasama was reelected here in 2022 by a 10-point margin. However, the district is open this cycle, as Kasama is opting to run for U.S. Congress. Given the lack of an incumbent and the close recent presidential results, the district is arguably the best pick-up opportunity for Dems and should be highly competitive. I’m classifying AD 2 as a Toss Up.

Nevada Assembly District 4

NV AD 4 is home to the Centennial Hills neighborhood of Las Vegas as well as unincorporated areas to the west. AD 4 swung several points to the right in 2016 under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Trump carrying the district by between 5 and 6 points after Romney had just narrowly carried it by less than 2 points. However, the district moved back somewhat towards the Dems in 2020, with Trump’s margin shrinking to about 3 points. The GOP easily held onto the seat in 2012 and 2014, with Republican incumbent Michele Fiore winning by double digits in both cases, but the 2016 race was quite close, with Republican Richard McArthur winning the open seat by 4 points, slightly underperforming the top of the ticket. Democrat Connie Munk managed to flip the seat in 2018, as she defeated McArthur by a razor-thin margin of less than half a percentage point, though McArthur was able to flip the seat back in 2020, as he defeated Munk by just over 5 points in a rematch. The 2022 redistricting made AD 4 slightly redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to around 5 points. The Democrats did not contest the district in 2022, with McArthur receiving only Libertarian opposition. (Though it may be interesting to note that the Libertarian candidate received a fairly high share of the vote, at over 39%.) McArthur is opting to run in the state’s upper chamber this cycle, making this assembly seat open. Two Republicans are already running: Jacob Deaville, who previously ran in the neighboring AD 37 last cycle (which is discussed several paragraphs below), and Robert Plummer, who previously ran for the Las Vegas City Council last cycle but lost the primary. The GOP should have an edge, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given the lack of an incumbent and how close the district has been in the past. I’m classifying AD 4 as Lean Republican.

Nevada Assembly District 9

NV AD 9 contains portions of the community of Spring Valley. AD 9 was not significantly altered by the 2022 redistricting, with the district’s partisan lean remaining roughly the same and the pre-2022 and post-2022 boundaries staying very similar. The district has been decently Democratic leaning at the presidential level, with Barack Obama carrying it by between 11 and 12 points in 2012, Hillary Clinton carrying it by just over 10 points, and Joe Biden carrying it by about 9.5 points. The 2012 assembly race was competitive, with Democrat Andrew Martin winning the open seat by between 6 and 7 points, and like many other districts in the chamber, the seat flipped to GOP control in 2014, with Republican David M. Gardner winning the open seat by about 4 points. Democrat Steve Yeager was able to flip the seat back in 2016, as he defeated Gardner by a decent margin of between 10 and 11 points. (Note that Yeager was also the Democratic challenger in 2014.) Yeager was easily reelected by between 15 and 16 points in 2018 and by nearly 10.5 points in 2020 (roughly on-par with his 2016 margin). The 2022 assembly race was quite competitive, with Yeager winning reelection by between 6 and 7 points, his closest race of the last four cycles. It may also be interesting to note that Yeager is currently the assembly speaker. Yeager should be somewhat favored, but the district should be competitive, especially given that the trends haven’t been all that great for Dems. I’m classifying AD 9 as Lean Democrat.

Nevada Assembly District 13

NV AD 13 encompasses parts of the northern end of Las Vegas, such as the neighborhood of Tule Springs, as well as nearby unincorporated areas. AD 13 was a fairly safe district for the GOP under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Romney carrying it by a little more than 8 points and Trump carrying it by a larger margin of about 15 points in both 2016 and 2020. The 2012 assembly race was reasonably competitive, with Republican Paul Anderson winning the open seat by roughly the same margin as Romney, but none of the subsequent house races of the decade were at all close, with Anderson easily winning reelection by nearly 25 points in 2014 and Dems not even contesting the seat in subsequent cycles. AD 13 became several points bluer as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to a little more than 8 points. Republican Brian Hibbetts held onto the seat in 2020, winning the open race by between 10 and 11 points. Hibbetts should be fairly safe, but the district warrants notice, given that it was within single digits at the presidential level in 2020 and that most recent assembly race was borderline competitive (though Hibbetts will have the advantage of incumbency this time). I’m classifying AD 13 as Likely Republican.

Nevada Assembly District 37

NV AD 37 is in-between the previously covered ADs 2 and 4 (north of AD 2, south of AD 4) and includes the Las Vegas neighborhoods of Sun City and Desert Shores. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 37 was a highly competitive district, if not slightly Republican leaning, having gone for Trump by a razor-thin 29-vote margin in 2020, after supporting him by a slightly larger margin of between 2 and 3 points in 2016 and Romney by between 4 and 5 points. The 2016 assembly race was quite competitive, with Republican Jim Marchant winning the open seat by about 5 points. Democrat Shea Backus managed to flip the district in 2018, as she very narrowly defeated Marchant by less than half a percentage point, though the GOP was able to flip the seat back in 2020, with Republican Andy Matthews narrowly defeating Backus by nearly 2 points. The 2022 redistricting made AD 37 a few points bluer, as Biden would have now carried the district by 3 points. The district flipped back to the Dems again in 2022, with Backus narrowly winning the open seat by about 2.5 points (similar to Biden’s performance). The district should be competitive again this cycle, especially considering how close the previous assembly races have been. I’m classifying AD 37 as a Toss Up. Note that Backus already has a Republican challenger, David Brog, who previously ran for Nevada’s 1st Congressional District last cycle but lost the GOP primary.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the current districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

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