(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . More Russian stuff blowing up, plus a Russian diplomat dies in Istanbul [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-14 Reports say Nikolai Kobrinets died of a heart attack in his hotel room in Istanbul, where he was attending a conference. Yeah, probably. Senior Russian officials do occasionally die of natural causes. Of course, I seem to recall reading once that if you are falling from a 23rd floor window to the street below, you almost certainly die of a heart attack before you die of asphalt poisoning. x “Top Russian diplomat Nikolai Kobrinets was found dead in an Istanbul hotel.” - The Sun 🇬🇧 He has had the ultimate bad day at work. pic.twitter.com/qBgDfbhuFT — Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) October 14, 2023 Hey! Where did those helicopters come from? x Ukrainian forces are utilising helicopters in the Robotyne area of the counter-offensive. This puzzles the Russians: “News from the Zaporozhye Front, Robotyne area: Helicopters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces flew freely, where did they come from? I don’t know, but they were… pic.twitter.com/ejSNEQM8G1 — Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023 “News from the Zaporozhye Front, Robotyne area:Helicopters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces flew freely, where did they come from? I don’t know, but they were noticed in Robotyne, they flew to the west, towards Kopan, they fired. And they went north. "It is clear that enemy helicopters are flying at extremely low altitudes, which means that the command will have to think about what means of destruction to bring to the forefront of our defense. This is the second documented case of such a maneuver by the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently.” Could this explain the sudden surge in Bigfoot sightings? x Snipers of the Ukrainian 47th Mechanised Brigade. pic.twitter.com/lKzZJzVoMj — Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023 A Russian assessment of their Avdiivka offensive. He says it failed because Ukraine was able to bring in reserves and did a better job with counter-battery fire. He laments that the war has reached “positional deadlock.” He says the Russian army will have to change “beyond recognition.” “Otherwise, he says, “we are doomed to months-long meat grinders for every waste heap and every village along the way. This is trench warfare. In our current state, we will not be able to overcome it.” x A rather interesting breakdown of the Avdiivka operation from a Russian source. Long read, but useful for a layman like myself. It's conclusions essentially come down to: the operation was well-prepared in advance, and caught Ukrainians off guard, but bogged down to Bakhmut pace… pic.twitter.com/FJnV4Knvym — Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023 And now we look at Avdeevka. How did the Russian command distinguish itself there? In order: The enemy was outplayed with the concentration of troops, the attack was so sudden that on the first day all observers noted very weak artillery fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Thorough reconnaissance - for example, a number of commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the preparation of the offensive, strikes were carried out on the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were successful, and this did not lead to the discovery of the plans of the Russian command. To speed up the breakthrough of Russian units through the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reserves of high-precision weapons, including LMURs, were created, and the interaction of ground units with helicopters was worked out. Also, to accelerate the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense lines, Russian troops are massively using incendiary ammunition, with all the ensuing consequences for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That is, we are dealing with a pre-prepared attack, carefully planned, for which reserves of material and technical equipment were created, including high-precision weapons, a set of reconnaissance activities were carried out, offensive groups of ground forces were covertly prepared for advance, and a serious detachment of strike aviation forces was allocated. At the same time, surprise was achieved. And what? After the first penetrations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred reinforcements to the place of the breakthrough, including artillery, and our penetrations during the first hours were stopped. Now the advance of Russian troops has dropped to Bakhmut pace - tens of meters per day at best, the enemy is launching counterattacks. This is what a positional deadlock looks like. And this has been written about on the channel more than once. What has the Russian army not mastered that is necessary at the tactical level for a successful breakthrough in a reasonable time? The first is the isolation of the combat area. It is clear that some actions were taken in this direction, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to transfer the necessary reserves to the Avdeevka area. It's important - if ours transfer more troops to this area, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will do the same. And then again, and again, this "trade in human flesh" has no limits. The second is counter-battery combat. Everything here at the moment is more complicated than is commonly thought, we will not expand on the topic, we will simply state the fact that the CBF is not effective enough. And this was enough to slow down the compression of the Russian "pincers" to an acceptably slow rate for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Can the operation to encircle Avdeevka end in success? It depends on what is considered such. Theoretically, having resisted, and having suffered heavy losses, it is possible to cut off this ledge, this, at least, would finally make life easier for people in Donetsk and at least one of the stated tasks of the SMO would be partially fulfilled. But it will not be possible to quickly cut off the ledge held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so that they would not be able to leave there and would lose troops in this area, and this is already obvious. The Russian army will have to change beyond recognition if the country's leadership wants to end this war with a significant victory, and at the cost of losses that, at least with a stretch, could be called reasonable. Otherwise, we are doomed to months-long meat grinders for every waste heap and every village along the way. This is trench warfare. In our current state, we will not be able to overcome it. Speaking of the need to change, setting a year-end deadline for taking a city they have failed to capture for nine years is a bit unrealistic. x "Russians have set a new date for reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk region – December 31. That is why it is important for them to take Avdiivka," the head of Avdiivka City Military Administration Vitalii Barabash said. 📷- Avdiivka before the war and now. Pavlo… pic.twitter.com/PAM20q71Gm — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 14, 2023 Russia just never learns. Even if these losses are only half of what is claimed, these are catastrophic. x One Russian unit sent a regiment to storm Avdiivka. A platoon remained from the regiment. Out of the 1,000 soldiers, about 30 remained. All the rest were disposed of by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And this is only one of the Russian unit... Avdiivka fight in the video pic.twitter.com/IeXjeSc1IM — PStyleOne1 (@PStyle0ne1) October 14, 2023 x Frontline report: Russians lose 1,030 troops, 75 pieces of armor in one day Near Donetsk's Avdiivka, intense fighting persists as Russians continue their assault, facing resilient Ukrainian forces. Geolocated footage shows massive Russian losses. https://t.co/V5cU9q1u3K — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 14, 2023 The video shows a large piece of shrapnel with blood on it. Hard to believe that thing was in the soldier’s body and they saved his leg. x Ukrainian medics removed a mine shaft from the body of a wounded soldier during an extremely complex operation in a front-line hospital. At the same time, it was possible to save his leg. Now the Ukrainian soldier's condition is stable. Specialists of the Medical Forces are… pic.twitter.com/CtVKmOmFeC — Oriannalyla 🇺🇦 (@Lyla_lilas) October 13, 2023 This has disaster written all over it. The FSB will go all out to obtain a list of those Russians with such passports. x EU lawmakers suggested issuing special passports to Russians who disagree with the war. The "passports of democracy" may be put into circulation as early as next year. Four MEPs have prepared a draft report with recommendations on political relations between the EU and… — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 14, 2023 Time for another truck bomb. x Crimean bridge fully restored after attack, repair work completed 18 days ahead of schedule - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin. pic.twitter.com/UsuPKz2vDH — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 14, 2023 Wow. Do you suppose he actually believes that pile of horse manure? x "And most importantly, the civilian casualties will be absolutely unacceptable. Now the main thing is to stop the bloodshed," Putin said.#VladimirPutin | #Gaza | #Civilianshttps://t.co/H0OBdygufI — The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) October 13, 2023 I think he might need to restart his laptop. x With Russia now allocating 40% of their entire government budget to destroying Ukraine and the rest being stolen by Putin's kleptocracy, the already crumbling infrastructure is making life a bit shitty. Khabarovsk College, raw sewage, it's the most Russian thing ever. pic.twitter.com/1wg15KUznK — Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) October 14, 2023 Gratitude is heartwarming. x A boy runs to thank the defenders for protection, giving to them little gifts. pic.twitter.com/WieGUWkssb — Oriannalyla 🇺🇦 (@Lyla_lilas) October 14, 2023 Hopefully somebody is taking care of this cat. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/14/2199369/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-plus-a-Russian-diplomat-dies-in-Istanbul?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/