(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Get a strong candidate before you call for Joe Biden to be primaried. [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-16 For months now, there’s been a handful of Democratic voices raised towards challenging President Biden in the primaries. James Carville, Jonathan Chait, and at least one Atlantic writer have all expressed skepticism of Biden’s ability to win re-election and desires for a Democratic alternative. In all fairness to these people, I do believe that Biden is vulnerable. We’re a year away from the big dance and his average approval rating is still a lousy 40%. So, I can certainly understand why the doubters are afraid for his chances. However, I’ve my doubts that such a number is the killer it ordinarily would be, if only because he’s more than likely going to be up against Donald Trump and his baggage. First, election polls tell a different story. This thing is roughly tied. Not a bad place to be in considering the public’s distaste for the current economic conditions. I’ve seen some assumptions that Trump’s huge Electoral College advantage from 2020 will hold through 2024. Based on what? Swing state polls have shown no special strength for Trump so far. There were a couple of outliers recently that had Biden getting clubbed in Michigan and Pennsylvania. But a new one by Emerson shows Biden slightly edging Trump out in Michigan, a state that could be essential for either candidate. These swing state polls did show, right from the very beginning, that Trump was in a better position than nation polling suggested in 2020. Furthermore, all indications are that Biden will again win the fundraising battle in contrast to history. That’ll likely be worth something. Moreover, so much of Trump’s decent position in the race is the perceived weakness of the economy. Why when it’s good by the numbers? Because median incomes are not reflecting that. If jobs and GDP keep growing without bringing inflation back up (admittedly no guarantee), it’s still possible those incomes grow, and this thing looks a lot different next spring. But let’s say we ignore all of the above. There’s still the little matter of the lack of viable candidates. How many of these pieces claiming it to be unbelievable that no serious challenger exists under these circumstances, then fail to argue strongly for any particular challenger. Perhaps no alternative is not so inconceivable after all. The only potential exception is Gretchen Whitmer. She’s been golden in Michigan, but she’s also untested on the national stage, the kind of resume that’s making Ron DeSantis a disaster in the Republican race. This could therefore be too soon for Whitmer. The quality of the candidates dips precipitously after that. Vice President Kamala Harris’ ratings have consistently been a few points lower than Biden’s. Not to the level that some say they are. But as someone whose first choice in 2020 was Harris, what is the point of replacing an unpopular incumbent with an even more unpopular candidate? Frankly, she has the work of image repair cut out for her if she expects to be elected President in 2028. The case against Gavin Newsom is easy to make; he has run statewide five times and fallen well short of Biden’s margin of victory in California each time. True, the minority parties of some blue and red states have remained semi-competitive by distancing themself from national parties. Not the case with California Republicans. A big part of why they have been utterly irrelevant for a teenager’s age now is because conservatives there choose death with “honor” to moderates with a shot ever time. Therefore, Newsom winning the Golden State by less than Biden did probably does mean he’d be a weaker candidate. That pretty much wraps up the candidates worth mentioning. To be fair, there would be more if not for Barack Obama’s terrible midterm elections. Not one but two devastating red waves. The result is that a lot of Democratic pols who could have conceivably been effective challengers today lost. State/local Dems have since recovered, but presidential candidates tend to have been around for some time. So, it should come as no surprise that for one presidential election, there’s a shortage of options on our side. The point is, Biden’s our guy, flawed or not. There may be no one else and if there is, they clearly don’t want to run. Biden’s all that stands between Trump and the White House. 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