(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . What is Hamas's goal? What would Israel consider a win? [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-16 Some questions are, at the same time, both easy to answer and unanswerable. For instance, “What is Hamas’s goal?” The easy answer is the destruction of Israel and the death or expulsion of all Jews from the Middle East. But that is not going to happen — and they know it. So, what is their real goal? I do not know. Every conflict is unique. But there are some common threads. And there are previous fights that teach tough truths. I grew up as an American in the UK during “ The Troubles ,” aka the Northern Ireland conflict. The Catholic Northern Irish, the minority population, suffered discrimination for jobs and other opportunities. They wanted Irish reunification. The Protestant Northern Irish, the majority, saw themselves as British citizens. They wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom. Putting aside the rights and wrongs of the conflict — because, of course, both sides thought they were in the right — the situation was unresolvable by violence. The IRA and the other Republican paramilitary groups, despite an extensive bombing campaign in Belfast and England, had no chance of achieving Irish reunification. On the other hand, the British military, despite an overwhelming manpower and arms advantage, could not root out the IRA et al. from their Northern Irish strongholds and their safe areas in the Republic of Ireland. It took 30 years, but the two sides finally negotiated peace and signed the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Ultimately, the conflict left 3,500 dead before the combatants arrived at the position they should have reached, without violence, years earlier. Although, better late than never. For a long time, a solution to the problem was unimaginable. (Remember that) Terrorism — the wanton targeting of civilians — is not a winning strategy. The opposite is true. Non-violent protest — see Gandhi and MLK Jr. — is more effective. It paints the aggressor uniquely wrong, which generates support for the non-violent protestor. In Gandhi’s case, he achieved his goal of Indian independence. In MLK’s case, success was not as definitive. But it left a country where the majority (no matter how slim) agreed that minorities were entitled to at least some improvement in their circumstances. Although today, white conservatives on SCOTUS, with an enthusiastic assist from Clarence Thomas, are trying to turn back the clock. People might point to the freedom movements that led to decolonization as a model for Hamas. But that ignores a fundamental difference. The colonial powers did not consider the colonies their homeland. For Jews, Israel is. Decolonization did not threaten the existence of the colonizer’s home country. Israel is the Jews’ home country. Faced with an existential threat, most people will fight like hell to preserve themselves. Israelis are no different. It makes you wonder if permanent conflict is, in fact, Hamas’s real goal. It may be that fighting justifies their existence, so they keep doing it. Israel faces their own question. What do they consider a win? What is their goal? Again, the answer is simple — peace and security. Of course, it is not simple. How does Israel achieve that? Will occupying the Gaza Strip be the solution? Consider this. Israel has a population of c.9+ million — of which 7 million are Jewish. The Gaza Strip has a population of 2 million. And they have nowhere to go. No other Arab country will take them. Gaza is about the size of Manhattan, which has a population of 1.6 million. New Jersey has a population of c.9 million and is about the same size as Israel. Can you imagine New Jerseyites occupying Manhattan and trying to keep the area subdued? Now imagine Manhattanites spoke a different language, practiced a different religion, and had little in common culturally — and also had a supply of arms supplied by Texas (in this scenario, playing the role of Iran) An ongoing occupation — even if it could be minimally effective — would be financially ruinous. And New Jersey’s economy is 50% larger than Israel’s . Politics and human nature exacerbate Israel's problem. If terrorists hit you hard, you must be seen to hit back harder. George Bush certainly thought so after 9/11. Osama bin Laden was living under the aegis of the Taliban in Afghanistan, so we went to war with Afghanistan. There was a far less costly and more effective response. America could have saved money and lives by only pursuing the global campaign to identify and assassinate terrorist leaders. Consider that the high point and only success of the Afghan war was killing bin Laden — a mission that, including intelligence, cost a tiny fraction of the $2.3 trillion we have already spent on that war. Worse, that marginally justifiable expense is less than the $2.9 trillion current cost of the unjustifiable war in Iraq. The Israelis would do well to use those mistakes to learn a lesson. There are three scenarios for the future of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. One, maintain the status quo and watch endless terrorism and retaliation kill thousands and destroy infrastructure. Two, supporters of both sides escalate the war until it is regionwide — if not global — and after massive destruction and perhaps millions dead, one side prevails. Three, both sides finally come to the table with realistic expectations — or, put another way, both sides realize they will need to make concessions. (See ‘The Troubles’ above.) The workable answer is negotiation. But the human race has a spotty record of doing the right thing. At best, we waste time trying things that have superficial appeal but ultimately fail. At worst, we wait until it is too late. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/16/2199754/-What-is-Hamas-s-goal-What-would-Israel-consider-a-win?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/