(C) Daily Kos This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered. . . . . . . . . . . Why Approval Ratings are Useless and Needlessly Demoralizing [1] ['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.'] Date: 2023-10-16 Cross-posted on my Substack, The Janovsky Report We see it all the time: articles about President Biden’s low approval ratings and their effect on next year’s election. A google search for just the last week showed 62 results for “Biden” and “low approval.” Even positive articles, e.g., about Biden’s $71 million in fund raising between July and September seem obligated to include “Biden continues to grapple with questions about voter enthusiasm, given his low approval ratings and questions — even from many Democrats — about his age.” Yet approval ratings are a terrible prediction of the outcome of any Presidential election, especially over the past 20 years, because in the modern era, no President is ever likely to have a net positive approval rating. On April 25, 2023, I wrote here, Approval Ratings are “Misleading and Unhelpful,”: Many of the people who “disapprove” of someone will vote for that person if the other choice is unacceptable. A substantial percentage of those disapproving of Biden come from the left — critical of his climate, criminal justice or other issues. But they will almost certainly vote for Biden over Trump. Five days later, on April 30, Michael Podhorzer wrote Don't Panic About Biden's Approval Ratings. Podhorzer is the former political director of the AFL-CIO, and a leader of several Analyst Institute, the Independent Strategic Research Collaborative (ISRC), the Defend Democracy Project, and the Polling Consortium, and helped found America Votes, Working America, For Our Future, and Catalist.. He had the same conclusion, but with a much more data-driven and historical argument. The simple reason is that over the past 60 years, Presidential approval ratings have become completely divorced from election results. Podhorzer studied Presidential elections and approval ratings over the past 86 years, dividing the period into three sections: Pre-Voting Rights Era from 1937 until the enactment of the Voting Rights Act in 1965, during which presidential net approval was very rarely negative; Interregnum from the enactment of VRA until late 2003, when support for the Iraq war began to evaporate; and Collapse (or “Coming Apart”) from then to the present. The collapse in the “Collapse” Era has been twofold: Not only did net approval decline in a stepwise fashion, the range for net approval shrank dramatically. This graph summarizes the results:* “Weekend Reading” by Michael Podhorzer, April 30, 2023 From 1937 to 1965, Presidents had negative approval ratings only 13% of the time — that was true for FDR, Truman, Ike, JFK and LBJ. But for the past 20 years, Presidents had negative approval ratings 77% of the time — true for Bush II, Obama, Trump and Biden. What was once the general rule — positive approval ratings over a Presidency, is now non-existent. Podhorzer’s second column compares the Presidents’ average approval ratings with their margin of victory. In the earlier period, their approval rating was lower than their victory margin only about one in five times. Now, the average approval rating is lower than the margin of victory nearly 90% of the time. Positive approval ratings for Presidents are a thing of the past and almost completely unrelated to a Presidents’ likelihood of re-election. Podhorzer analyzes why this has happened, beyond simply attributing it to “polarization.” A major reason is over the past 50 years, there has been a steady decrease in Americans’ confidence in their institutions, including government. This has been part of Republican rhetoric, e.g., Reagan’s “Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem,” but also their strategy. Limiting government programs, like the war on the ACA, causes decline in confidence in government. But Democrats bear some responsibility, like Bill Clinton’s “The Era of Big Government is Over,” and their elevation of the deficit as an issue over real solutions to problems, like full employment. Podhorzer shows this decline in faith in government in this graph Podhorzer, data from American National Election Services (ANES) I urge you to read all of Podhorzer’s Don't Panic About Biden's Approval Ratings, as well as all of his entries on Weekend Reading, including A Cure for Mad Poll Disease and The Emerging Anti-MAGA Majority. (Yes, there’s some math, but not that much and not necessary to get the points he’s making.) Podhorzer is not a Pollyanna. He believes Democrats will win but only if we turn out. The good news is we have turned out and been winning elections, and with our work, will continue to do so. Be guided by this, from his conclusion: As we head into another election when fascism is on the ballot, we cannot allow ourselves to be distracted by those who brandish low approval ratings to turn the focus onto Biden, and who act as if insidery campaign messaging and tactics are the sole determiners of whether Democrats win or lose. *Podhorzer notes that there are fewer months in the early years because polls were not available for every month. [END] --- [1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/16/2199422/-Why-Approval-Ratings-are-Useless-and-Needlessly-Demoralizing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web Published and (C) by Daily Kos Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified. via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds: gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/