(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
 . . . . . . . . . .



Nevada State Assembly Districts (2024): AD 1, AD 3, AD 5, AD 8, AD 16 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-10-17  

Today, I will look at five more Nevada assembly districts: AD 1, AD 3, AD 5, AD 8, and AD 16, all of which are located throughout Clark County.

Nevada Assembly District 1

NV AD 1 encompasses parts of North Las Vegas. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 1 was a Democratic leaning district that moved somewhat to the right at the presidential level in recent years, with Barack Obama carrying it by about 21 points in 2012 and Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden carrying it by somewhat narrower margins of between 15 and 16 points. At the state assembly level, the Democrats easily held this seat, winning the 2014 and 2016 races by 19 points and not even facing Republican opposition in other cases. The 2022 redistricting made AD 1 a few points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 12.5 points. Democrat Danielle Monroe-Moreno was reelected in 2022 by just over 12 points, performing roughly on-par with Biden. It may be worthwhile to note that Monroe-Moreno was recently elected chair of the Nevada Democratic Party earlier this year. Monroe-Moreno should be heavily favored, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given that the overall trends haven’t been especially great for Dems. I’m classifying AD 1 as Likely Democrat.

Nevada Assembly District 3

NV AD 3 contains parts of Las Vegas, such as Northwest Area, as well as nearby unincorporated territory. AD 3 was a safely Democratic district under the pre-2022 boundaries, having supported Obama by nearly 34 points in 2012, Clinton by nearly 27 points, and Biden by between 24 and 25 points. The 2014 assembly race was quite a bit closer, with Democrat Nelson Araujo winning the open seat by nearly 12 points, though to be fair, the environment for NV Dems in 2014 was terrible overall. However, Democrat Selena Torres won the open seat by a much larger 33-point margin in 2018 (nearly matching Obama) and ran unopposed in 2020. (Note that Republicans also failed to contest the seat in 2016.) AD 3 became a lot redder as a result of the 2022 redistricting, but still remained fairly heavily Dem, with Biden’s margin shrinking by nearly 10 points. In 2022, Torres won reelection by between 10 and 11 points, underperforming Biden by about 4 points. Torres should be fairly safe, but the district warrants notice, given that the most recent assembly race was borderline competitive and that the region has been trending somewhat to the right. I’m classifying AD 3 as Likely Democrat.

Nevada Assembly District 5

NV AD 5 encompasses the southern end of Las Vegas, including The Lakes, as well as parts of Spring Valley to the south. AD 5 was a competitive, somewhat Democratic district under the pre-2022 boundaries, with both Obama (in 2012) and Biden carrying it by between 6 and 7 points and Clinton carrying it by a slightly narrower margin of about 4.5 points. The 2012 state assembly race was quite competitive, with Democratic incumbent Marilyn Dondero Loop performing similarly to Obama, and in 2014, Republican Erv Nelson flipped the district, winning the open seat by a decent margin of between 13 and 14 points. However, in 2016, Democrat Brittney Miller flipped the seat back, narrowly winning the open seat by nearly 1.5 points. Miller was reelected by larger margins of between 11 and 12 points in 2018 and between 8 and 9 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made AD 5 a few points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to a little more than 10 points. Miller won reelection in 2022 by a competitive margin of between 7 and 8 points, underperforming both her 2018 and 2020 races, despite facing somewhat more favorable territory (though to be fair a lot of the territory was also new to her). The district should be competitive this cycle, given that the most recent assembly race was close, but Miller should have an edge. I’m classifying AD 5 as Lean Democrat. Miller already has two Republican challengers: Kelly Quinn, who was also Miller’s 2022 opponent, and Alan Bigelow, who ran for the Las Vegas City Council last cycle (and lost).

Nevada Assembly District 8

NV AD 8 includes parts of Enterprise. AD 8 was heavily Democratic under the pre-2022 boundaries, though the district did swing slightly to the right, as it went from supporting Obama by nearly 20 points to supporting Clinton by a slightly narrower margin of about 16.5 points and Biden by even narrower margin of around 15 points. Democrat incumbent Jason Frierson easily won this seat by a large 22-point margin in 2012, though Republican John Moore flipped the district in 2014, as he narrowly defeated Frierson by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes. Interestingly, Moore ended up running as a Libertarian in the 2016 election (facing both Democratic and Republican opposition), after having changed parties earlier that year. Frierson was able to regain the district for Dems in 2016, winning the seat by a large 19-point margin. The two subsequent assembly races also weren’t competitive, as Frierson won both of them by double digits. The 2022 redistricting made AD 8 slightly redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to 13 points. In addition, the district’s boundaries were also altered fairly significantly, shifting it further south than before. Democrat Duy Ngyuen held onto the seat in 2022, winning the open race by nearly 12 points. Nguyen should be fairly safe, but the district is still worth keeping an eye on. I’m classifying AD 8 as Likely Democrat. Nguyen has a Republican challenger, Kelly Chapman.

Nevada Assembly District 16

NV AD 16 contains parts of Paradise, home to much of the Las Vegas strip. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 16 was a safely Democratic district that supported Obama by around 38 points in 2012, Clinton by around 32 points, and Biden by about 27 points. At the state assembly level, Democrat Cecelia González easily won the open seat by between 30 and 31 points in 2020. (None of the previous assembly races were competitive either, with the GOP not even contesting many of them.) The 2022 redistricting altered the boundaries of AD 16 fairly significantly and made the district substantially redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to a little less than 14 points. The 2022 assembly race was competitive, with González being reelected by nearly 8 points, underperforming Biden by quite a bit. González should be favored, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying AD 16 as Lean Democrat.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the current districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/17/2199887/-Nevada-State-Assembly-Districts-2024-AD-1-AD-3-AD-5-AD-8-AD-16?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/