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CNBC - Trump beating Biden [1]

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Date: 2023-10-18  

So if you can’t help yourself, don’t follow the very smart advice that polls are meaningless this far out from an election, you may have had a bit of a ‘bad moment when you saw this headline.

Biden would lose in matchup vs. Trump, according to CNBC survey

From the article —

“You don’t get sub 40 approval ratings without losing large chunks of your base. And that’s what’s happening here,″ said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey. He called the data “distressing numbers for a president facing reelection.”

So there you have it — the base won’t support Biden in a match-up with Trump. Got it. Taking that to the bank right now — thanks CNBC and you genius survey people.

And then this —

“About the only “bright” spot for the president is that Trump bests him by just 4 percentage points in a head-to-head match up, 46-42 with 12% undecided. Both pollsters said that, given Biden’s poor numbers, Trump’s lead would likely be larger if not for widespread reservations about the former president himself. Yet, some of the data in the poll suggests that both independents and undecided voters would break for Trump.”

But then we get to the punchline in the survey data itself.

In terms of your views on political issues, would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ............................................. 12

Somewhat liberal.................................... 14

Moderate................................................ 28

Somewhat conservative ......................... 23

Very conservative................................... 18

Not sure.................................................. 6

Voila — Conservatives are 41% of the population while those in the Liberal side of the equation are 26%. Who woulda thunk it? The insurrectionist supporting part of the country had 41% backing before getting ANY ‘cloaked’ support from that 34% of the country that neither declared ‘right nor left’.

So let’s do some extrapolating. Trump starts with 41% — because, as Rachel Bitcofer would immediately contribute, negative partisanship reigns these days. Then he picks up 5% of the 34% “up for grabs” group. Pretty easy money — electorally that is.

Or 41% and half of the up for grab groups — the survey said they’d break for Drumpf — 58% wave election for the his high Indicted-ness! Wow — this really needs to be a special politcial science class at Columbia or Stanford. Wait, wait, what was I think — those 2 states probably flip the ‘views on political issues on its head. Let’s get to Real America — Alabama where the real ‘mericans send Tomaso Toooberwalls to the U.S. Senate to stop the military from functioning. (p.s. CNBC just did a survey of military families and they’ll vote for Trump 75% — 25% for Biden citing Trump’s beleif that they are the dumbest people he’s ever met.

Back to the chart. Biden’s base is — as noted — 26% and he’s “losing large chunks of his base” such that the Dem base is absolutely going to sit on the couch and watch as Mein Trumpf ascends to Grand Vizier of the USA.

You might be thinking the same thing I am; I’m struggling a bit with the whole notion of — “what are you going to believe, electoral results from all of the actual voting events over the past 24 months across the country or my 41% Conservative populated survey numbers?”

And someone actually pays real money for these guys to spit out this crap.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/18/2200175/-CNBC-Trump-beating-Biden?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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