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Nevada State Assembly Districts (2024): AD 12, AD 25, AD 26, AD 42 [1]

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Date: 2023-10-18  

Today, I am looking at the last four competitive Nevada assembly districts: AD 12, AD 25, AD 26, and AD 42. ADs 12 and 42 are based in Clark County, while ADs 25 and 26 are based in Washoe County, home to Reno.

Nevada Assembly District 12

NV AD 12 encompasses Las Vegas’s eastern suburbs, including parts of Henderson, such as Lake Las Vegas. AD 12 was a Democratic leaning district that had swung to the right at the presidential level in recent years under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Barack Obama by nearly 15 points in 2012 to supporting Hillary Clinton by a slightly narrower margin of nearly 12 points and Joe Biden by an even narrower margin of about 7.5 points. The 2012 and 2014 assembly races were not at all competitive, with Democrat incumbent James Ohrenschall winning them both by at least 18 points, though it should be pointed out that his 2014 opponent was not a Republican, but rather an Independent American (far-right party) candidate. The 2016 assembly race was a few points closer, with Ohrenschall being reelected by around 15 points. Democrat Susan Martinez won the open seat in 2018 by a borderline competitive margin of nearly 11 points and did about a percentage point bluer in her 2020 reelection (and outran Biden). The 2022 redistricting made AD 12 a few points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to between 10 and 11 points. Interestingly, the 2022 assembly race was extremely competitive, with Democrat Max Carter II just narrowly winning the open seat by a little less than 2 points. The district should be competitive again this cycle, but I’m giving Carter the edge, given that he will now have the advantage of incumbency and Biden’s decent performance (though given the unfavorable trends for Dems in the district, it’s conceivable that Biden will not perform as well here this time). I’m classifying AD 12 as Lean Democrat.

Nevada Assembly District 25

NV AD 25 contains western parts of Reno, including the Mayberry Ranch Estates neighborhood, as well as the nearby community of Mogul. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 25 was a competitive Republican leaning district at the presidential level and had trended a few points towards the Dems, as it went from supporting Mitt Romney by a little more than 6 points to supporting Donald Trump by a slightly narrower margin of just over 4 points in 2016 to narrowly supporting Biden by between 1 and 2 points. The district was much safer for the GOP at the state assembly level, with Republican Jill Tolles easily winning the open seat by over 21 points in 2016 and being reelected by a decent 18-point margin in 2018. (Note that Democrats did not contest the district in 2012, 2014, or 2020). AD 25 became significantly bluer as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Biden’s margin expanding to nearly 14 points. It should be noted that the district’s boundaries were significantly redrawn to be more Reno-centric, shedding much of the rural areas away from the city. Unsurprisingly, Democrat Selena La Rue Hatch was able to flip the district in 2022, though the race was competitive, as she won the open seat by nearly 8 points, underperforming Biden by quite a bit. Hatch should be heavily favored this cycle, given the promising trends for Dems in the district and that she will now have the advantage of incumbency. I’m classifying AD 25 as Likely Democrat.

Nevada Assembly District 26

NV AD 26 is located on the state’s western border with California, and includes the southernmost parts of Reno, as well as a lot of territory to the south, stretching all the way down to Incline Village and including a lot of rural areas in-between. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 26 was a Republican-leaning district that had moved significantly to the left at the presidential level, with Romney carrying it by a decent 13-point margin and Trump carrying it by a narrower margin of just under 8 points in 2016 and by an even narrower margin of about 2.5 points in 2020. At the state assembly level, Republican Lisa Krasner was easily reelected here by between 14 and 15 points in 2018 and by an even larger margin of between 18 and 19 points in 2020. (This isn’t too surprising, given that the neighboring AD 25 discussed above was also friendlier to Republicans down-ballot.) The 2022 redistricting made AD 26 a few points redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to a little more than 5 points. The Democrats did not contest the district in 2022 and Republican Rich DeLong won the open race facing only Libertarian opposition. DeLong should be favored somewhat, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given the fairly close presidential results and favorable trends for Dems in the district (in addition to the overall increase in polarization). I’m classifying AD 26 as Lean Republican.

Nevada Assembly District 42

NV AD 42 encompasses parts of the community of Spring Valley. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, AD 42 was a safely Democratic district, with Obama, Clinton, and Biden all carrying it by over 20 points. None of the state assembly races (from 2012 to 2020) were at all competitive, with Democrats easily winning them with over 60% of the vote, though in many cases facing only third-party opposition (with Republicans not contesting the seat). The 2022 redistricting made AD 42 several points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to just under 14 points. In 2022, Democrat Tracy Brown-May won the open seat by between 13 and 14 points, performing similarly to Biden. The Dems should be fairly safe, but the district does have the potential to be competitive, especially given that Brown-May has received some criticism (from Republicans) for recently voting for legislation that gave funding for non-profits while also serving as a board member (for one of these non-profits). I’m classifying AD 42 as Likely Democrat.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the current districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

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